ACUS02 KWNS 270601
SWODY2
SPC AC 270600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2020

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM A PORTION
OF EASTERN IOWA INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY AS WELL AS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms are possible Friday from a portion of the
upper Mississippi Valley, Great Lakes and Ohio Valley with large
hail and damaging wind the main threats. Other severe storms may
occur across the TN Valley region with a few tornadoes and damaging
wind the primary threats.

...Middle Mississippi Valley through the Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley...

East-west quasi-stationary front will stretch across the Great
Lakes into southern portions of the Northeast States early Friday.
Elevated storms will be ongoing within zone of isentropic
ascent north of this boundary. Rich low-level moisture with upper
60s to low 70s F dewpoints will reside in the warm sector farther
south. The atmosphere will likely become moderately to strongly
unstable as the boundary layer warms during the afternoon with
MLCAPE from 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE likely. A southeast-advancing cold
front will accompany a progressive northern-stream trough through
the upper MS Valley during the afternoon, continuing into the
Midwest during the evening. Additional storms will likely develop as
the front interacts with the destabilizing boundary layer from
southern WI into IA, and this activity will subsequently spread
southeast. Vertical wind profiles will strengthen as the upper
trough advances east-southeast, and potential will exist for
organized storms including a few supercells as well as lines with
bowing segments. Damaging wind and hail should be the main threats.

...Tennessee and Kentucky...

The remnants of Hurricane Laura should be located over northeast
Arkansas by 12Z Friday based on the latest forecast track from the
National Hurricane Center. This feature is forecast to advance east
northeast during the period through western TN and KY as it begins
to interact with the southern fringe of the mid-latitude westerlies.
The kinematic environment associated with the remnants of Laura
should remain favorable for a few tornadoes, especially during the
afternoon when the boundary layer will have the potential to be more
unstable. However, the threat may continue into the overnight across
portions of TN and KY as the system continues east.

...Central Plains...

It still appears more substantial thunderstorm initiation along the
cold front will probably remain limited across the central Plains
during the afternoon. A greater signal exists in the upslope region
of CO where storms will likely develop over the higher terrain later
in the day. This activity will spread east possibly reaching the
central High Plains, posing a risk for a few damaging wind gusts and
hail during the evening. Additional storms may develop overnight
across KS, mainly north of the front, and some of this activity may
become capable of producing hail and locally strong wind gusts.

..Dial.. 08/27/2020

$$

* SLMR 2.1a * "Did you open the Microwave door before the 'ding'"?
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ACUS02 KWNS 271731
SWODY2
SPC AC 271730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2020

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MIDWEST...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND TN VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms are possible Friday from a portion of the
upper Mississippi Valley, Great Lakes and Ohio Valley with large
hail and damaging wind the main threats. Other severe storms may
occur across the Tennessee Valley region with a few tornadoes and
damaging winds the primary threats.

...Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and
Mid-Atlantic...
An MCS will likely be ongoing Friday morning across some portion of
the Upper Midwest (probably the central/southern MN into northern IA
vicinity). This MCS may continue to pose at least an isolated
damaging wind threat across parts of WI before it weakens by mid to
late morning. In the wake of this morning activity, additional
robust storm development appears possible Friday afternoon across
parts of WI/IA/northern IL as an upper trough advances
east-southeastward from central Canada and the northern Plains into
the Upper Midwest. A weak surface low is also forecast to develop
eastward from MN into WI and eventually Lower MI through the day,
with a trailing cold front moving southeastward across the Upper
Midwest.

There is still a fair amount of uncertainty regarding the northward
extent of appreciable surface-based storm potential across WI, which
will largely be dependent on how quickly the morning storms
weaken/move eastward Friday morning. Even with this uncertainty,
strong diurnal heating of a low-level airmass characterized by upper
60s to low 70s surface dewpoints ahead of the cold front will likely
support the development of 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE by peak
afternoon heating. 40-50 kt of mid-level westerly flow should foster
similar values of effective bulk shear. Redevelopment along the cold
front in the afternoon is likely, with supercells the main storm
mode initially. Both scattered large hail and severe wind gusts may
occur, with a more focused corridor of severe potential evident
across southern WI, eastern IA, and northern IL as storms grow
upscale into a small bow/line through early Friday evening. A few
tornadoes also appear possible along a warm front extending eastward
from the surface low, where low-level shear will be relatively
maximized in association with a modestly enhanced low-level jet.

Farther east across the Great Lakes and OH Valley/Mid-Atlantic,
mainly elevated convection may be ongoing Friday morning along a
stalled front. The potential for additional storm development
through the day remains unclear, although a mid-level perturbation
associated with the morning MCS over the Upper Midwest may provide
enough large-scale ascent for scattered storms by Friday afternoon.
Generally 25-40 kt of effective bulk shear in combination with
1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE along/south of the front should be
sufficient for a mix of supercells and multicells, with the better
supercell potential across Lower MI and the OH Valley where
deep-layer shear should be somewhat stronger. Although marginally
severe hail may occur, the main threat should be damaging winds as
storms congeal into multiple clusters and small bows while moving
eastward. Have expanded the Slight Risk eastward across parts of PA,
where a greater concentration of storms appears probable.

...Lower Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee Valley...
Laura is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to be a Tropical
Depression in the vicinity of northeastern AR by the start of the
period Friday morning. As the cyclone develops east-northeastward
through the day, a broken band of storms may form along its eastern
flank across parts of the Lower MS Valley into the TN Valley and
vicinity. Although instability may remain fairly modest owing to
poor mid-level lapse rates, around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE may still
develop. The low-level wind field associated with Laura should
remain favorable for low-level rotation with any low-topped
supercells that can form. The straight-line damaging wind potential
may also increase across parts of the TN Valley Friday afternoon if
storms can grow into one or more line segments, as some
convection-allowing model guidance suggests.

...Central Plains...
Convective initiation along the southward-moving cold front still
appears very questionable across most of the central Plains through
the day, as appreciable large-scale ascent should remain displaced
to the north of this region. A better potential for convective
initiation Friday afternoon appears across parts of the higher
terrain of CO, where a weak low-level upslope flow regime will
exist. This activity should spread eastward, possibly reaching the
central High Plains while posing a risk for a few severe wind gusts
and perhaps some hail during the evening. Additional storms may
develop overnight across KS, mainly north of the front. Some of this
activity may become capable of producing hail and locally strong
wind gusts.

..Gleason.. 08/27/2020

$$

* SLMR 2.1a * Overhead the albatross hangs motionless upon the air...
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ACUS02 KWNS 280603
SWODY2
SPC AC 280602

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0102 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2020

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN
KANSAS INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS AND FROM THE
CAROLINAS THROUGH THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms are possible from southern Kansas into
northern Oklahoma and Arkansas Saturday afternoon and evening with
damaging wind and large hail the main threats. A modest risk for a
few strong to severe storms will exist from the Carolinas into the
Middle Atlantic during the day with damaging wind gusts and a few
tornadoes possible.

...Southern Kansas, Northern Oklahoma into northern Arkansas...

A cold front will advance southward into OK and the TX Panhandle
Saturday where the atmosphere will likely become moderately to
strongly unstable in warm sector. Current indications are that
elevated storms will probably be in progress north of the boundary
across KS Saturday morning. Several CAMs as well as NAM and ECWMF
depict an MCS and associated MCV across southern KS early in the
period, and this activity will shift east southeast over top of a
low-amplitude synoptic ridge during the day. Potential will exist
for additional storms to develop across southern KS into northern OK
as the shortwave trough advances east and interacts with the front
and destabilizing boundary layer. Stronger flow/vertical shear will
accompany the shortwave trough, and storms will have the potential
to organize. A low-level jet will likely strengthen during the
evening in association with this mesoscale system and help to
sustain an organized MCS into the lower MS Valley region into the
overnight. Damaging wind and hail will be the main threats.

Other more isolated strong to severe storms may develop farther west
in the post-frontal upslope region across the higher terrain of CO
and spread east into High Plains during the late afternoon and
evening. A few instances of large hail and damaging wind will be the
main threats.

...Carolinas through the Middle Atlantic...

Remnants of Laura are forecast to accelerate through the southern
Appalachians and Carolinas to southern Middle Atlantic regions on
Saturday as the system becomes absorbed within belt of westerlies.
Laura should become loosely phased with a progressive
northern-stream trough that will move through the Great Lakes and
Northeast States. The accompanying cold front should extend from a
surface low over the lower Great Lakes southwestward into the Ohio
Valley early in the day. The front will continue into the Northeast
States and Middle Atlantic during the mid to late afternoon. Rich
tropical moisture will reside in pre-frontal warm sector, but weak
lapse rates and potential for widespread clouds will likely result
in marginal instability. The stronger low-level wind fields and
largest hodographs accompanying Laura should spread through NC and
southern VA based on latest guidance, but the system will continue
to undergo a weakening trend. Latest satellite imagery show Laura is transitioning to a hybrid system and is entraining dry air in the
mid-upper levels. This transition might allow for greater diabatic
heating and destabilization of the boundary layer across parts of NC
and VA where tornado threat will be greatest, but conditional upon
sufficient low-level destabilization.

Farther north into the Mid Atlantic and Northeast States, low-level
hodographs will be smaller, but the kinematic environment might be
sufficient for a threat of locally strong wind gusts with storms
developing along and ahead of the advancing cold front. Threat in
this region is also conditional upon sufficient boundary layer
destabilization, which remains uncertain given potential for
widespread clouds and areas of ongoing precipitation.

..Dial.. 08/28/2020

$$

* SLMR 2.1a * "When you have a rib-eye steak, you must floss it!"-Homer
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ACUS02 KWNS 290547
SWODY2
SPC AC 290545

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2020

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms will be possible over parts of the Great
Plains Sunday afternoon and evening with damaging wind and large
hail the main threats.

...Great Plains...
An upper-level trough will move across the northern High Plains on
Sunday as flow aloft remains divergent across the central and
northern Plains. At the surface, a corridor of maximized low-level
moisture will be in place from western Kansas northward into central
South Dakota where MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 1500 to 2500
J/kg range. A cold front will advance southeastward across the
central and northern Plains, providing a focus for convective
development during the mid to late afternoon. Although thunderstorms
should initially remain relatively isolated, convective coverage is
expected to increase during the early evening. A few clusters of
storms appear likely to move east-southward across the
instability/moisture corridor.

In addition to the moderate instability, model forecasts show 0-6 km
shear in the 35 to 45 kt range across much of the central and
northern Plains. Mid-level lapse rates are also steep. This
environment should be favorable for supercells with large hail. A
wind-damage threat will also likely accompany supercells. The
potential for wind damage and hail is expected to persist into the
early to mid evening as several organized short line segments move east-southeastward across the region.

...Arkansas River Valley/Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley...
A shortwave trough will move eastward across the lower Missouri
Valley and Ozarks on Sunday. At the surface, an east-to-west
corridor of maximized low-level moisture will be in place from the
southern Plains Red River Valley into the lower to mid Mississippi
Valley. Scattered thunderstorms appear likely to develop along this
corridor during the afternoon. Although deep-layer shear is forecast
to be in the 20 to 30 kt range, moderate instability will be in
place and low-level lapse rates will be steep. This should be enough
for a marginal wind-damage threat with the stronger multicells.

..Broyles.. 08/29/2020

$$

* SLMR 2.1a * Heisenberg may have slept here.
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ACUS02 KWNS 291732
SWODY2
SPC AC 291731

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2020

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A PORTION
OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms will be possible over parts of the Great
Plains Sunday afternoon and evening with damaging wind and large
hail the main threats.

...Dakotas through central and eastern Nebraska...

A strong cold front will accompany a northern-stream shortwave
trough through the northern and central Plains Sunday. By early
Sunday this front should extend from western ND southwest into
northern Wyoming. A lee trough will extend southward through the
central High Plains. The cold front will advance southeast during
the period and by 12Z Monday should extend from eastern MN
southwestward through KS and into northeast NM. A narrow corridor of
modest low-level moisture with upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints will
advect northward through the pre-frontal warm sector beneath steep
mid-level lapse rates resulting in 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE. Elevated
storms with a marginal hail threat may develop in post frontal
region of ND early in the day. However, it still appears the
atmosphere will remain capped to surface based thunderstorms until
the front interacts with the destabilizing boundary layer during the
mid to late afternoon, when storms will likely develop from the
central Dakotas into NE. Winds aloft will increase with the approach
of the upper trough, though stronger flow will remain post frontal.
Moderate instability and effective bulk shear from 30-40 kt will
support both multicell and some supercell structures with damaging
wind and large hail the main threats through mid evening.

...Southern Plains through lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valley
regions...

East-west oriented baroclinic zone will stretch from OK through the
TN Valley region and will remain active with ongoing convection. The
warm sector south of the stalled boundary will likely become
moderately unstable, and a series of MCVs will advance from west to
east within belt of modest winds aloft. Additional storms will
likely develop within the frontal zone during the day, and some of
this activity will become capable of producing isolated damaging
wind and hail. However, given the complexities associated with
ongoing convection, considerable uncertainty remains regarding where
the best severe potential will be. Will therefore maintain MRGL risk
category for this update, but a SLGT risk might be required for a
portion of this region in later outlooks.

..Dial.. 08/29/2020

$$

* SLMR 2.1a * PRESS To test. <click> RELEASE to detonate.
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ACUS02 KWNS 301732
SWODY2
SPC AC 301730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2020

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging wind are possible
Monday over parts of the southern Plains and lower Arkansas River
Valley. Other strong storms may occur over a portion of the
Carolinas into southern Virginia.

...Southern Plains region...

On Monday the southern Plains will remain within a belt of modest
westerly winds aloft with embedded weak perturbations. A stalled
front will reside from central OK into northern AR early in the
period. A few showers and thunderstorms may be in progress along
portions of this boundary, but this activity is expected to move
east and diminish during the day as the low-level jet veers and
weakens. In wake of the morning activity, at least partial clearing
skies will promote destabilization of the moist boundary layer
beneath 7-7.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates supporting 2000-3000 J/kg
MLCAPE. A cold front will advance southeast and should extend from
MO into northern OK and northwestern TX by late afternoon.
Additional storms are expected to develop as this boundary interacts
with the destabilizing surface layer, and this activity will spread
southeast during the evening. The modest wind profiles will support
25-35 kt effective bulk shear and mostly multicell convection.
However, the thermodynamic environment appears sufficient for storms
to produce locally strong to damaging wind gusts and hail from
mid-late afternoon into the evening.

...Central North Carolina into Southern Virginia...

A modest southerly low level jet is expected to develop across
western VA, possibly extending into a portion of northern NC during
the day in association with the approach of a low-amplitude
shortwave trough. At the surface an east-west oriented stationary
front should extend across NC. Showers and storms may be ongoing
north of this boundary early in period. However, potential will
exist for destabilization of the moist boundary layer along and
south of the front during the day where fewer clouds are expected.
Some enhancement of low-level hodographs will exist along trailing
end of the low-level jet where it intersects the front from a
portion of northern NC into southern VA. Additional storms will
likely develop along this boundary during the afternoon, and some
threat for a couple of brief tornadoes will exist with storms
interacting with the boundary. Have introduced a 2% tornado this
outlook, but this region will continue to be monitored for a
possible SLGT risk in day 1 updates.

..Dial.. 08/30/2020

$$

* SLMR 2.1a * Engineers: often wrong, seldom in doubt.
--- SBBSecho 3.11-Linux
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ACUS02 KWNS 311735
SWODY2
SPC AC 311734

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2020

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM A PORTION
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe storms capable of mainly severe gusts and
hail will be possible over a portion of the southern Plains Tuesday.
Other storms with a few locally strong to severe gusts will be
possible over a portion of the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys.

...Southern Plains region...

Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along and south of a stalled
front from the lower MS Valley region into southern OK and northern
TX, possibly extending westward through a portion of western TX. A
moist warm sector will reside south of ongoing storms across
northern through central TX where the atmosphere will likely become
moderately unstable. Activity will likely continue developing slowly
south during the day with potential for a few locally strong gusts.
However, belt of modest southwest mid-upper flow will reside over
this region downstream from an upper low amplifying across the 4
corners region. With only modest flow aloft parallel to outflow
boundary and presence of weak vertical shear, overall threat does
not seem to warrant more than a MRGL risk category.

Farther west, overall severe threat will depend on extent of morning convection. However, current indications are that a corridor of
moderate instability may develop in vicinity of a dryline feature
across western TX where steeper mid level lapse rates will exist.
Additional storms may develop along this feature during the
afternoon, and effective bulk shear from 30-40 kt could support a
few rotating updrafts capable of large hail and strong wind gusts.
Due to uncertainty regarding extent of early convection and residual
clouds, will maintain MRGL risk category this update, but an upgrade
to SLGT might be warranted in day 1 outlooks.

...Tennessee and Ohio Valley regions...

Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing south of a stalled front from
the lower and middle MS valley into the western TN and OH Valley
regions. A shortwave trough will advance northeast through this
region during the day augmenting vertical wind profiles. Primary
uncertainty this outlook for a more robust severe threat is
destabilization potential, given weak lapse rates and expected
widespread clouds. Some destabilization is possible, but
thermodynamic profiles will likely remain marginal. Nevertheless, a
few strong storms could develop during the afternoon where
sufficient boundary layer warming occurs. Vertical wind profiles in
association with the progressive shortwave trough might become
sufficient for a few organized structures with damaging wind and
perhaps a brief tornado or two the main threats.

..Dial.. 08/31/2020

$$

* SLMR 2.1a * We're lost, yes.....but we're making good time.
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ACUS02 KWNS 011728
SWODY2
SPC AC 011726

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1226 PM CDT Tue Sep 01 2020

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE OHIO VALLEY/MID-SOUTH...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Wednesday from
parts of the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic into the Ohio Valley/Mid-South.

...Northeast into the Mid-Atlantic...
An upper trough over Ontario/Quebec and the Great Lakes is forecast
to develop across the Northeast and Quebec on Wednesday. The
strongest mid-level flow should remain confined to parts of northern
NY and New England, although modestly enhanced winds (around 30-35
kt) at mid levels will likely extend as far south as the
Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, a weak low initially over southern
Ontario should develop northeastward through the day, with a
trailing cold front moving southeastward across the Northeast and
Mid-Atlantic. A warm front is also forecast to lift northward across
parts of these regions through Wednesday evening.

Poor mid-level lapse rates will be present across the warm sector,
which should temper updraft strength to some degree through much of
the day. Still, 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE should develop ahead of the
cold front across parts of PA/NY into far western New England owing
to diurnal heating of an increasingly moist low-level airmass.
Greater instability (1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE) may be realized
across parts of the Mid-Atlantic to the east of the Blue Ridge
Mountains, where rich low-level moisture should be present and
stronger diurnal heating will likely occur. Around 30-40 kt of
effective bulk shear should act to organize storms as they form
along/ahead of the cold front, and along a lee trough extending
southward near/east of the Appalachians. A mix of multicells and
marginal supercell structures will be possible.

Isolated strong/gusty downdraft winds capable of producing some
damage may occur as storms move eastward through early Wednesday
evening given the enhanced mid-level flow. A tornado or two also
appears possible with any of the more discrete storms, as low-level
winds should be strong enough to support 100-150 m2/s2 of 0-1 km
SRH. An upgrade to Slight Risk may be needed for parts of the
Mid-Atlantic if current model trends continue, but confidence in
overall storm coverage/intensity was not high enough to introduce
greater severe probabilities just yet.

...Ohio Valley into the Mid-South...
Clusters of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across parts of the
southern Plains into AR Wednesday morning in association with a weak
upper trough. A convectively enhanced, small-scale mid-level
perturbation may move northeastward across parts of the Mid-South
and OH Valley through the day. There appears to be some potential
for a small thunderstorm cluster to move northeastward over these
areas in tandem with the mid-level perturbation. Isolated strong to
damaging winds appear to be the main severe threat with this
activity, as mid-level southwesterly flow should be modestly
enhanced (around 25-30 kt) and sufficient destabilization is
anticipated downstream. A surface cold front over the OH Valley will
likely serve as a northern delimiter to any appreciable severe
threat Wednesday afternoon.

..Gleason.. 09/01/2020

$$

* SLMR 2.1a * Don't be sexist! Chicks hate that.
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ACUS02 KWNS 020539
SWODY2
SPC AC 020537

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1237 AM CDT Wed Sep 02 2020

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible in
the Mid-Atlantic states on Thursday.

...Synopsis...
A strong mid-level shortwave trough will move from the Upper Great
Lakes, through the base of a larger scale trough, and into Quebec by
early Friday morning. A mid-level anticyclone centered over the
Great Basin will influence conditions over the West. In the low
levels, a front will stall and advance northward as a warm front
across parts of the Northeast, ahead of a cold front forecast to
sweep eastward through the Great Lakes and into the Northeast during
the period.

...Central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic states...
Model guidance continues to show a lower-latitude disturbance moving
from the upper TN Valley east-northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic
states by late afternoon. With a very moist airmass located from
KY/TN northeastward into PA/NJ south of the stalled front, showers
and thunderstorms may be ongoing early Thursday morning across KY.
Cloud breaks ahead of this convection will lead to weak/moderate destabilization despite relatively warm 500 mb temperatures and
modest mid-level lapse rates. Scattered thunderstorm development
will likely occur over the central Appalachians during the midday
before spreading downstream towards the I-95 corridor during the afternoon/early evening. In tandem with the diurnal storm
development, flow fields within the 700-500 mb layer will strengthen
during the day (30-40 kt at 700 mb increasing to 40-50 kt at 500 mb)
and elongate hodographs. A mixed mode of strong to severe
clusters/linear segments plus supercells is likely. Scattered
damaging gusts and a few tornadoes are possible. The tornado risk
will continue to be re-evaluated at later outlooks but the potential
for several supercells appears greatest in the MD/northern VA
vicinity during the afternoon. This activity will likely weaken
during the evening as it moves towards the coast but some risk may
continue well after dark.

...Hudson Valley into southern New England...
A warm front is forecast to advance northward into the southern half
of NY and southern New England during the day. Aside from warm
advection, it appears the primary forcing for ascent for storm
development will delay until after dark. Isolated to widely
scattered thunderstorms are possible within an increasingly moist
airmass ahead of the approaching cold front. Isolated damaging
gusts may accompany the stronger storms.

..Smith.. 09/02/2020

$$

* SLMR 2.1a * Reward for a job well done: more work.
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ACUS02 KWNS 031716
SWODY2
SPC AC 031715

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1215 PM CDT Thu Sep 03 2020

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely across the contiguous
United States on Friday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A large-scale upper cyclone will persist Friday across the Upper
Midwest into the Northeast and eastern Canada while moving slowly
eastward. Upper-level ridging will remain over much of the western
CONUS and parts of the Southeast. At the surface, a weak cold front
is forecast to move generally southeastward across the Mid-Atlantic
into the Southeast, lower MS Valley, and southern Plains through the
period. This front, along with multiple MCVs from prior convection
across TX, should be a focus for isolated to scattered thunderstorm
development through Friday afternoon. Stronger mid-level flow
associated with the upper trough is expected to remain mostly
displaced to the north of the cold front, and any storms that form
along/south of this front are expected to remain rather disorganized
owing to weak deep-layer shear.

..Gleason.. 09/03/2020

$$

* SLMR 2.1a * Who do you have to sleep with to get service around here?
--- SBBSecho 3.11-Linux
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ACUS02 KWNS 040529
SWODY2
SPC AC 040527

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 AM CDT Fri Sep 04 2020

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over
southern Minnesota and Iowa Saturday night.

...MN/IA vicinity...
A plume of steep mid-level lapse rates emanating from the northern
periphery of a mid-level anticyclone centered over UT/AZ, will
overspread the Dakotas into the Corn Belt on Saturday and Saturday
night. A mid-level disturbance is forecast to rapidly move from MT east-southeastward into IA by daybreak Sunday. As this occurs,
surface low pressure will develop over the Dakotas and a warm front
over the central Great Plains will advance north/northeast.

Model output is consistent in depicting southerly low-level flow
advecting richer moisture northward into the lower to mid MO Valley
with mid 60s reaching western IA by late evening. Strengthening
warm air advection aided by a developing southwesterly 45-kt LLJ
after dark will likely lead to scattered elevated thunderstorms
developing during the evening in eastern SD/southwestern MN with
increasing thunderstorm coverage in the form of a cluster and/or MCS
spreading east-southeast. The eastern periphery of a plume of steep
700-500 mb lapse rates (8-9 deg C/km) and strong effective shear may
favor large hail with the stronger elevated cores. An isolated
damaging gust may also occur given the presence of steep lapse rates
and the possibility for an organized thunderstorm cluster to
develop.

..Smith.. 09/04/2020

$$

* SLMR 2.1a * Life would be much easier if I had the source code.
--- SBBSecho 3.11-Linux
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ACUS02 KWNS 050535
SWODY2
SPC AC 050534

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 AM CDT Sat Sep 05 2020

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN IOWA
TO THE SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN VICINITY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from parts
of the mid Mississippi Valley eastward into the central Great Lakes
on Sunday and Sunday night. Damaging gusts and large hail are the
primary hazards.

...IA eastward into Lower MI...
Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing from southeast MN southeastward into IA/WI and perhaps northern IL on Sunday morning
in association with elevated, warm-advection thunderstorms on the
nose of a strong southwesterly LLJ. The early day activity may pose
an isolated risk for large hail or a localized threat for damaging
gusts before weakening by late morning. The mid-level disturbance
responsible for the morning thunderstorms is forecast to move
quickly east across the southern Great Lakes. A warm front will
advance northeastward across Lower MI during the day but residual
convection will outrun the destabilizing warm sector located farther
southwest.

Models continue to show an amplifying mid-level shortwave trough
over south-central Canada as a surface low deepens over western
Ontario. By the early evening, weak mid-level height falls will
gradually overspread the Upper Midwest the western Great Lakes as a
cold front sharpens and pushes southeastward into the mid MS Valley.
It appears increasingly plausible that scattered thunderstorms will
develop from eastern IA across southern WI and northern IL during
the evening. Steep mid-level lapse rates and a strengthening low-
to mid-level wind profile will favor organized thunderstorms.
Isolated severe gusts resulting in scattered wind damage and large
hail are possible with the stronger thunderstorms and bowing
segments. Farther east/northeast, weaker instability (MUCAPE 1000
J/kg or less) may temper the overall severe risk. Yet, the strong
flow fields in the presence of thunderstorms may yield a risk for
damaging gusts.

..Smith.. 09/05/2020

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 060543
SWODY2
SPC AC 060541

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1241 AM CDT Sun Sep 06 2020

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
A couple of strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible from
Illinois into the lower Great Lakes during the afternoon Monday and
in parts of the middle Mississippi Valley Monday evening.

...Synopsis...
A belt of strong cyclonic mid-level flow over the north-central U.S.
and southern Canada will feature a departing disturbance over
Ontario into Quebec and an amplifying trough over the northern
Rockies into the eastern Great Basin. In the low levels, a cold
front associated with the northern Great Lakes disturbance will
extend west-southwestward through the mid MS Valley and become
stationary, while an arctic cold front sweeps southward through
the central High Plains late.

Models continue to indicate isolated thunderstorms being possible
during the day along the trailing portion of the boundary from the
lower Great Lakes westward into IL. Although storm coverage will
probably remain isolated with one or two widely spaced clusters and
weak to negligible upper forcing for ascent, the airmass will
destabilize during the afternoon and conditionally support an
isolated strong to severe risk.

Farther west over the lower MO Valley, strengthening warm air
advection by early evening will likely lead to isolated
thunderstorms developing near the surface boundary. Storm coverage
will probably increase during the evening near the boundary before
preferential development occurs north of the surface front within
strengthening 850 mb warm air advection from northern MO into
adjacent parts of IA/western IL. The primary risks with the
stronger storms during the evening will be isolated large
hail/damaging gusts due to the steep 700-500 mb lapse rates and
strong effective shear.

..Smith.. 09/06/2020

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 061723
SWODY2
SPC AC 061722

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1222 PM CDT Sun Sep 06 2020

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER MISSOURI/MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES VICINITY...

...SUMMARY...
A couple of strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible from
Illinois into the lower Great Lakes Monday afternoon, and in parts
of the middle Mississippi Valley Monday evening.

...Synopsis...

A broad upper level trough stretching from the northern Rockies to
the Great Lakes will be in place early Monday. An upper low near
James Bay and attendant shortwave trough embedded in the
larger-scale trough will develop east/northeast across Quebec.
Meanwhile, a second, intense shortwave trough will dig southward
across the northern Rockies and Great Basin. At the surface, low
pressure vertically stacked beneath the James Bay upper low will
slowly pivot north/northeast through the period. A surface cold
front will surge eastward early in the period across lower MI.
However, as the surface low pivots further north/northeast, the
front will stall, and remain draped across parts of OH/IN/IL,
westward through northern MO/KS. The front will become a focus for
thunderstorm development across portions of the Midwest into the
lower Great Lakes vicinity during the afternoon and evening.

...IL/IN to the Lower Great Lakes through Monday evening...

Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period
near the surface cold front from near Lakes Ontario and Erie into
parts of northern OH/IN. This activity should increase and spread east/southeast through peak heating from western NY/PA into
central/southern OH/IN, and possibly parts of central/southern IL. A
corridor of 60s F surface dewpoints will reside ahead of the front.
Surface heating will be strongest across the Mid-MS/lower OH Valley
vicinity, with cooler temperatures expected northeastward into the
lower Great Lakes vicinity. MLCAPE values around 1500-2500 J/kg are
forecast where greater heating occurs, decreasing to around 250-1000
J/kg across parts of OH into western PA/NY. Effective shear will
remain modest, around 25-35 kt, but adequate for organized clusters.
Gusty winds and near-1 inch hail will be possible with the strongest
storms. Low level winds will remain weak, and deep layer winds
largely parallel to the frontal boundary, which should limit tornado
potential. However, a corridor may exist during the afternoon across
parts of IL/IN where some guidance suggests backing low level winds
ahead of the front resulting in enlarged, albeit still modest, low
level hodographs. Given an overlap of favorable low level moisture
and instability, a tornado or two can not be ruled out.

...Lower MO/mid-MS Valley Monday evening and overnight...

Convection will likely be suppressed much of the day until stronger
forcing arrives ahead of the western upper shortwave trough and
intense southward-advancing Plains cold front. In response to these
features, a strong southerly low level jet will develop Monday
evening over the southern Plains and Lower Missouri Valley. This
should initiate thunderstorms along the surface boundary, with deep
layer flow resulting in convection remaining on the cool side of the
boundary, and elevated. Nevertheless, moderate instability and steep
midlevel lapse rates will be in place amid strong vertical shear.
Some initial elevated supercells are possible, but storm mode should
generally be clusters. Isolated large hail and gusty winds could
occur with the strongest cells from far southeast NE/northeast KS
into MO/IA and IL through the overnight hours.

..Leitman.. 09/06/2020

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 081719
SWODY2
SPC AC 081718

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1218 PM CDT Tue Sep 08 2020

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
Wednesday through Wednesday night.

...Discussion...
Models indicate that blocking will remain prominent within the
mid/upper flow across the eastern Pacific into the western U.S.
through this period, although some weakening of the mid-level high
centered to the west of the Pacific Northwest coast may commence.
Little movement of flanking closed lows is forecast, including the
one centered to the northwest of the Four Corners.

To the north of this regime, broad ridging within the mid-latitude
westerlies will persist from the Gulf of Alaska vicinity into the
Canadian Prairies. The base of broadening downstream troughing may
shift from the north central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity to the north/northeast of the Great Lakes region.

Meanwhile, the western flank of a prominent mid-level ridge,
centered over the mid-latitude/subtropical western Atlantic, likely
will maintain considerable influence over much of the southeastern
quarter of the nation.

In lower levels, a weak easterly wave may gradually migrate into and
across southern and mid Atlantic coastal areas. This will be
accompanied by continued lower/mid tropospheric moistening and areas
of convection. However, due to weak mid-level lapse rates,
thermodynamic profiles supportive of activity capable of producing
lightning may be generally confined to the coastal plain, where
there appears the best chance for substantive boundary-layer warming
and destabilization.

Otherwise, low/mid-level moisture and instability above the stalling
surface frontal zone, associated the ongoing cold intrusion to the
lee of the Rockies, appears to provide the primary focus for
scattered, generally weak thunderstorm development Wednesday through
Wednesday night. Moderately large mixed-layer CAPE may develop by
late afternoon along/ahead of the frontal zone across parts of Texas
(roughly along the I-35 corridor into the Hill Country), near the
eastern periphery of broadly cyclonic mid-level flow associated with
the upstream mid-level closed low. While an isolated strong to
severe storm or two in this environment may not be completely out of
the question, it still appears a low enough risk at this time to
maintain less than 5 percent severe probabilities.

..Kerr.. 09/08/2020

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 091724
SWODY2
SPC AC 091722

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1222 PM CDT Wed Sep 09 2020

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the
U.S., Thursday through Thursday night.

...Synopsis...
Models indicate that blocking will persist within the large-scale
pattern across the eastern Pacific into western North America.
However, it appears that the prominent mid-level high, centered to
the west of the Pacific Northwest coast, may begin a more
substantive weakening during this period, while a low to its
southeast begins a northeastward acceleration out of the eastern
Great Basin.

It appears that this will occur as a series of short wave
perturbations continue accelerating east-southeastward within a belt
of westerlies across southern Alaska and the Gulf of Alaska, through
northern portions of British Columbia and the Canadian Prairie
provinces. Farther downstream, another couple of perturbations are
forecast to rapidly progress across southern Ontario and Quebec
through the Canadian Maritimes.

At the same time, mid-level subtropical ridging probably will
maintain an influence across a large portion of the southeastern
U.S.

In response to these developments, in lower levels, cold surface
ridging likely will remain entrenched across much of the Great
Plains, Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region. While the frontal
zone on its shallow leading edge gradually begins to weaken across
the southeastern Great Plains/lower Missouri Valley vicinity, the
front is expected to surge southeast of the lower Great Lakes/St.
Lawrence Valley region through much of the Northeast by 12Z Friday.

A plume of seasonably high precipitable water likely will be
maintained across much of the southern through mid Atlantic Coast
region, while gradually spreading westward across the eastern Gulf
states. A southerly return flow is also expected to maintain a
moist air mass above the shallow, cool surface-based air mass across
much of the southern and central Great Plains. This moisture may
continue to advect northward toward the northern Great Plains by
Thursday night, ahead of the northeastward accelerating closed low.

...Eastern U.S...
Perturbations within weak mid/upper flow, mainly near/east of the
Appalachians through southern New England, are expected to
contribute to scattered thunderstorm activity in the presence of
weak to moderate CAPE Thursday. A few thunderstorms may also
develop in a corridor along the surface front across parts of
Upstate New York into northern New England Thursday afternoon.
However, weaker instability along the frontal zone currently appears
likely to minimize any severe weather potential, despite the likely
presence of at least marginally sufficient deep-layer shear for
organized convective development.

...Great Plains...
Higher low-level moisture content and larger CAPE may be confined to
a relatively narrow corridor near the shallow leading edge of the
cold surface-based air, across parts of eastern Texas into
southwestern Missouri by late Thursday afternoon. Although
mid/upper support for thunderstorm development may remain weak, this destabilization may become supportive of scattered thunderstorm
development through Thursday evening.

Otherwise, although elevated instability likely will be much weaker
to the west/northwest, forcing for ascent ahead of the northeastward
migrating low and trailing trough axis may contribute to a corridor
of thunderstorm development across parts of west Texas, and perhaps
central Oklahoma into southeastern Kansas, Thursday night.

Additional elevated thunderstorm development appears possible to the
northeast of the mid-level low, across parts of the mid Missouri
Valley vicinity by 12Z Friday.

..Kerr.. 09/09/2020

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 101725
SWODY2
SPC AC 101723

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1223 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2020

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
Friday through Friday night.

...Synopsis...
Stronger westerlies will generally remain confined to latitudes
north of the Canadian/U.S. border, particularly after one embedded
short wave perturbation accelerates across and east of northern New
England and the Canadian Maritimes during the day Friday. In its
wake, broad ridging will overspread Ontario and Quebec, ahead of a
low amplitude short wave trough forecast to turn eastward across
northern portions of the Canadian Prairie provinces. As a number of
trailing perturbations accelerate into increasingly confluent flow
across western Canada and adjacent portions of the northeast
Pacific, it appears that there will be considerable further
suppression and southeastward migration of a remnant blocking
mid-level high across the Pacific Northwest.

While models indicate that large-scale mid-level ridging will linger
across the Pacific Coast states, a mid-level low emerging from the
eastern Great Basin may continue to gradually accelerate
east-northeastward across north central portions of the U.S. Great
Plains. Guidance suggests that the low may undergo appreciable
deepening, however surface development will be slowed/suppressed by
relatively cold and stable surface-based air to the lee of the
Rockies.

Cold surface ridging likely will be entrenched across much of the
Great Plains, Upper Midwest, Great Lakes region and Northeast at the
outset of the period. It appears that this air mass will advance
southward across the southern New England and northern Mid Atlantic
coast early in the period, while also nosing southward to the lee of
the central Appalachians. A gradual modification and erosion of
this air mass may proceed across the Great Plains, but a
well-defined frontal zone likely will linger across the middle
Mississippi Valley and Ozark Plateau into the northwest Gulf coast
vicinity, as well as across the lower Ohio Valley.

South/southeast of the cold surface-based air, boundary-layer
moisture content may continue to increase to seasonably high levels
across much of the Southeast. A moist southerly return flow is also
expected to continue above the shallow cold air, across the
southeastern Great Plains into the Upper Midwest.

...Southeast...
Deep-layer moistening, supportive of scattered thunderstorm activity
with daytime heating, may largely be confined to portions of the
Gulf coastal plain and coastal plain into piedmont of the
southern/middle Atlantic Coast states Friday through Friday evening.
While boundary-layer CAPE may become moderately large, weak lapse
rates and deep-layer mean flow/shear appear likely to result in
negligible severe weather potential.

...Eastern Great Plains into Upper Midwest...
Stronger lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields and forcing for ascent
associated with the progressive mid-level low/trough will, at least
initially, remain displaced to the cool side (northwest) of the
surface frontal zone. However, weak to modest CAPE rooted above the
boundary layer is expected to become supportive of increasing
thunderstorm development, particularly late Friday afternoon through
Friday night across parts of Missouri and Iowa into the Upper
Midwest. Late Friday night, surface-based or near surface-based destabilization might not be completely out of the question roughly
along the Mississippi River between St. Louis, MO and Dubuque, IA,
in the presence of strengthening low-level and deep-layer shear.
This could be accompanied by some increase in severe weather
potential. However, at this time, this potential still appears low
enough that severe probabilities will be maintained at less than 5
percent.

..Kerr.. 09/10/2020

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 110538
SWODY2
SPC AC 110537

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1237 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2020

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF INDIANA...SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHWEST OHIO...

...SUMMARY...
A couple of strong to locally severe thunderstorms may produce
locally damaging wind gusts from late Saturday afternoon into
Saturday night across portions of Indiana, lower Michigan, and Ohio.

...Southern Lower MI...Northern IN and Northwest OH...

A closed upper low and associated shortwave trough over the
northern/central Plains will become an open wave as it tracks
eastward to the upper Great Lakes by the end of the period. At the
surface, a weak cold front extending southward from a low over the
northern Canadian Prairies/Hudson Bay will develop eastward across
the Upper Midwest and Mid-MS Valley vicinity, extending from
northwest OH southwestward to the Ozark Plateau by Sunday morning.
Strong south/southwesterly low-level flow ahead of the front will
transport low/mid 60s dewpoints northward across the Midwest and
upper Great Lakes vicinity amid strengthening vertical shear during
the afternoon and overnight hours. However, poor lapse rates will
limit destabilization, with generally less than 1000 J/kg MLCAPE
forecast. As the upper shortwave trough ejects eastward, effective
shear around 30-40 kt is expected to develop mainly north of the
Ohio River. This should result in a few fast-moving organized cells
by late afternoon, and persisting into the nighttime hours across
parts of IN/OH and southern lower MI. A few strong, to locally
damaging gusts could accompany these storms.

..Leitman.. 09/11/2020

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 120547
SWODY2
SPC AC 120545

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2020

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.

...Mid-South to the Ohio Valley...
An upper level shortwave trough embedded in a larger-scale trough
will quickly develop east/northeast from the upper Great Lakes
through the northeastern U.S. by Sunday evening. At the surface, a
cold front will extend from western Ohio southwestward into the
Ozark Plateau vicinity Sunday morning. The front will develop
east/southeast through the period, becoming oriented near the New
England coast, then southwestward toward the Mid-South and northern
Texas by Monday morning. Showers and thunderstorms are expected
ahead of the front from KY/TN northeastward into western PA/NY where
a corridor of 60s F surface dewpoints will reside. However, overall destabilization will be limited by poor midlevel lapse rates.
Widespread cloud cover and ongoing showers/storms at the beginning
of the period will further limit instability from the Ohio Valley northeastward. Despite modest instability, 30-35 kt effective shear
will exist from parts of OH northeastward and a loosely organized
cluster could produce some gusty, but sub-severe, winds.

...FL...
In the Gulf of Mexico, T.D. 19 is forecast to become a tropical
storm by the National Hurricane Center in the Day 1/Saturday time
period off the southwest coast of FL. The center of T.D. 19 is
forecast to remain well offshore from the FL Panhandle through the
period, and the west/northwest motion will keep more favorable low
level shear offshore as well. For now, will forego tornado
probabilities as tornado occurrence is climatologically low along
the northern Gulf Coast with west or northwestward moving tropical
systems.

..Leitman.. 09/12/2020

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 121726
SWODY2
SPC AC 121724

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1224 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2020

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely across the contiguous
United States on Sunday.

...Mid-South to the Ohio Valley and Northeast...
A shortwave trough over the Great Lakes is forecast to move across
the Northeast, southern Ontario, and Quebec on Sunday. At the
surface, a related cold front is also expected to develop
east-southeastward across parts of the Mid-South into the OH Valley
and western portions of the Mid-Atlantic. Fairly numerous showers
and thunderstorms should be ongoing Sunday morning over much of the
OH Valley to the Mid-South along/ahead of the front. Widespread
cloudiness associated with this morning precipitation coupled with
poor mid-level lapse rates will likely limit diurnal destabilization
ahead of the front across these regions Sunday afternoon. The
stronger flow aloft associated with the shortwave trough should also
gradually shift northeastward and away from the OH Valley through
the day. The potential for organized severe storms appears too
limited to include any wind probabilities at this time.

...Florida to the Central Gulf Coast...
Tropical Depression 19 is forecast by the National Hurricane Center
to strengthen to a Tropical Storm in the Day 1/Saturday time frame
as it moves west-northwestward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
Latest forecast track for this system should keep its enhanced
low-level winds off the FL Gulf Coast on Sunday. Although mesoscale
low-level convergence through the day may result in arcing bands of
storms across the FL Peninsula into parts of the adjacent central
Gulf Coast through Sunday afternoon, forecast low/mid-level wind
profiles across these areas do not appear overly favorable for
organized severe convection.

..Gleason.. 09/12/2020

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 130533
SWODY2
SPC AC 130531

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2020

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.

...Synopsis...
A broad upper ridge will envelop much of the CONUS west of the
Mississippi River on Monday, while an upper trough develops
east/northeastward across portions of the lower Great Lakes and New
England. Surface high pressure over the upper Great Lakes will
spread eastward toward the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, confining
richer boundary-layer moisture to the southeastern U.S. due to north/northeasterly continental trajectories. Modest midlevel
moisture and midlevel lapse rates will result in diurnal
destabilization across parts of the southwestern U.S., and isolated thunderstorms will be possible.

Otherwise, additional thunderstorm activity will be confined to the
Southeast. Some of this activity will be associated with arcing
bands of thunderstorms developing well north of, but influenced by,
Tropical Storm Sally. Most of this activity will be driven by
low-level convergence as Sally slowly shifts west/northwest across
the northern Gulf of Mexico, approaching the mouth of the
Mississippi River by the end of the period, per the latest National
Hurricane Center track forecast. While low-level winds will
strengthen across the central Gulf Coast with the approach of the
system, forecast hodographs appear unfavorable for tropical
cyclone-related tornado activity, precluding probabilities at this
time.

..Leitman.. 09/13/2020

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 131729
SWODY2
SPC AC 131728

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2020

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
A couple tornadoes may occur Monday night into early Tuesday morning
across parts of the central Gulf Coast in association with Tropical
Cyclone Sally.

...Central Gulf Coast...
Tropical Storm Sally is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to
continue moving west-northwestward across the Gulf of Mexico through
much of Monday. Some of the latest convection-allowing model
guidance has a larger wind field for Sally by Monday, and enhanced
low-level east-southeasterly winds may overspread parts of coastal
AL and the FL Panhandle by Monday afternoon. There appears to be
sufficient low-level shear (0-1 km SRH around 100-200 m2/s2) for
rotating updrafts with any storms that can form in outer rain bands.
A tornado or two appears possible across these areas, along with
isolated strong wind gusts from thunderstorms. Still, weak
instability should keep the overall severe threat isolated/marginal.

Sally should turn more northward late Monday into early Tuesday
morning per latest NHC forecast track. The eastern half of Sally's
circulation may overspread parts of coastal southeastern LA and MS
late in the period, although uncertainty in both the forward speed
and track of Sally remain apparent in both global and
convection-allowing model guidance. An increase in low-level
east-southeasterly winds and corresponding low-level shear will
probably foster some tornado threat across these areas, mainly late
Monday night through the end of the period. Given the continued
uncertainty in Sally's track and the limited forecast instability,
opted to include only low tornado and severe wind probabilities at
this time.

..Gleason.. 09/13/2020

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 141729
SWODY2
SPC AC 141728

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
COASTAL SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
A few tornadoes may occur Tuesday and Tuesday night across portions
of the central Gulf Coast in association with Hurricane Sally.

...Central Gulf Coast...
Hurricane Sally should continue moving west-northwestward today per
latest NHC forecasts, before slowly turning northward on Tuesday.
Although some uncertainty still remains in the track of Sally,
confidence is increasing that at least weak destabilization will
occur into parts of coastal AL and the FL Panhandle as mid/upper 70s
surface dewpoints spread northward across these areas through the
period. With Sally intensifying rather quickly already, and
continued strengthening forecast by the NHC, a broad area of
enhanced south-southeasterly low-level winds are expected to
overspread parts of the central Gulf Coast, mainly Tuesday afternoon
through Tuesday night. The forecast combination of weak instability
and strong low-level shear will be capable of supporting
semi-discrete, low-topped supercells in outer rain bands. A few
tornadoes will be possible if this occurs. Consensus of 12Z
convection-allowing guidance suggests a greater potential for one or
more of these outer bands to set up to the east of Sally's center
across parts of southern AL into the FL Panhandle, where a Slight
Risk for tornadoes has been included.

..Gleason.. 09/14/2020

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 161728
SWODY2
SPC AC 161726

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1226 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS....

...SUMMARY...
A threat for tornadoes and damaging wind gusts associated with
Tropical Cyclone Sally will exist from Georgia into the Carolinas.
Potential for strong wind gusts also exists Thursday afternoon and
evening across western Oregon and far southwest Washington.

...Georgia into the Mid-Atlantic...
Predominantly weak flow aloft will persist across the southern half
of the CONUS Thursday with high pressure remaining in place over the
Four Corners region and modest mid-level trough moving slowly
southeastward over the southern Plains. The only exception to this
weak flow over the southern CONUS is in the vicinity of TC Sally.
Sally is forecast to begin the Day 2 period as a tropical depression
near the central AL/GA border before continuing northeastward across
central GA into SC.

Strong low to mid-level flow will persist throughout the eastern
periphery of the system, spreading from GA across the Carolinas.
This will result in a kinematic space favorable for tornadogenesis.
Primary concerns, as is typical with tropical systems, is the degree
of destabilization and storm mode. Faster motion of the system
suggests there may be more opportunity for increased cellular
convection ahead of the system while still maintaining well-formed
rainbands. This will result in a greater opportunity for more
persistent updrafts to realize the strong low-level vertical shear. Additionally, low to mid 70s dewpoints will likely be in place ahead
of the main convective bands associated with Sally. This ample
low-level moisture will support modest buoyancy, despite the poor
lapse rates associated with the tropical air mass. As such, the
overall parameter space appears supportive of tornadoes throughout
much of Day 2, including overnight Thursday into early Friday
morning across the Carolinas.

...Pacific Northwest...
Farther northwest, an upper low will begin the day centered off the
Pacific Northwest coast. A strong shortwave trough is forecast to
progress through the base of this low, reaching the southern
OR/northern CA coast during the early afternoon. Increased mid-level
moisture associated with this shortwave trough will result in modest
elevated instability, primarily across portions of OR west of the
Cascades. The strong forcing for ascent attendant to this shortwave
coupled with the modest instability is expected to result in
thunderstorm development between 21Z and 00Z.

While much of the environment only support elevated storms,
potential for a few surface-based storms does exist during the brief
window before low-level nocturnal stabilization begins. In either
case, the resulting storms are expected to move quickly northward/north-northeastward during the evening. Given the strength
of the vertical shear and progressive forcing for ascent, strong
gusty winds could accompany these storms.

..Mosier.. 09/16/2020

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 181713
SWODY2
SPC AC 181711

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1211 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently expected across the
contiguous United States on Saturday.

...Synopsis...
Upper pattern is expected to be relatively progressive on Saturday
as the trough/ridge/trough orientation shifts eastward. The western
upper trough is forecast to extend south-central BC into the western
Great Basin early Saturday before continuing eastward/northward
throughout the day, reaching the northern High Plains by the end of
the period. Cooler mid-level temperatures, increased mid-level
moisture, and persistent forcing for ascent associated with this
upper trough will contribute to isolated thunderstorms from the northern/central Rockies into the northern High Plains. Majority of
this activity is expected to be displaced north of the stronger
mid-level flow, limiting vertical shear and likely precluding severe thunderstorm development.

Upper troughing will spread across the Plains ahead of the western
trough while the eastern troughing gradually drifts eastward,
deepening late in the period as shortwave trough moves through its
base over the Upper Great Lakes.

Surface pattern across much of the eastern CONUS will be dominated
by an expansive area of high pressure. Lee troughing is anticipated
across the northern and central High Plains ahead of the approaching
western CONUS trough, but limited low-level moisture should temper
any thunderstorm potential.

Isolated thunderstorms also appear possible across parts of the FL
Peninsula, ahead of a weakening frontal zone, and along portions of
the Gulf Coast, associated with deepening Tropical Depression 22.

..Mosier.. 09/18/2020

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 190531
SWODY2
SPC AC 190530

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The severe potential associated with Tropical Storm Beta over the
western Gulf of Mexico appears too limited to include low severe
probabilities for Sunday across any portion of coastal Texas.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Tropical Storm Beta is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to
remain over the western Gulf of Mexico Sunday while moving slowly
westward and strengthening into a hurricane. Latest deterministic
guidance remains in general agreement with this scenario, but
considerable uncertainty still exists regarding how close Beta will
approach the TX Coast, particularly Sunday night. Low-level
east-northeasterly winds will probably increase across some portion
of this region through the period, with a corresponding increase in
low-level shear. However, greater low-level moisture associated with
this system will likely remain over the Gulf and to the south of a
remnant surface front, limiting inland destabilization. No severe
probabilities have been included across coastal TX given these
uncertainties and potentially limiting factors.

Farther north, an upper trough is forecast to move northeastward
from the northern Plains across parts of the Upper Midwest and into
central Canada though the period. Isolated thunderstorms may occur
Sunday across these areas along/ahead of an eastward-moving cold
front. Although steep mid-level level lapse rates will be present
across the warm sector, limited low-level moisture will likely keep
instability rather weak. Overall thunderstorm coverage is also
uncertain, as a low-level inversion may hinder convective
initiation.

..Gleason.. 09/19/2020

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ACUS02 KWNS 191724
SWODY2
SPC AC 191723

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1223 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to remain quite low on
Sunday. It still appears as if any severe threat associated with
Tropical Storm Beta will remain offshore through Monday morning.

...TX/LA Gulf Coast...
NHC is forecasting Tropical Storm Beta to move slowly westward
across the western Gulf of Mexico on Sunday and remain offshore of
the TX Gulf Coast through the end of the forecast period (12Z
Monday). The current relatively dry/stable environment along the
immediate TX/LA Gulf Coast will require significant modification to
support any brief tornado threat, and the current forecast track
would not support any appreciable surface-based destabilization
inland prior to the end of the period, so no probabilities have been
included at this time. If Beta ends up moving faster and/or further
north than currently expected, then low-end tornado probabilities
may eventually be needed across some portion of the immediate TX/LA
Gulf Coast.

..Dean.. 09/19/2020

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 200532
SWODY2
SPC AC 200530

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2020

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MIDDLE/UPPER TEXAS COAST AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...

...SUMMARY...
An isolated threat for strong/gusty thunderstorm winds and perhaps a
tornado or two may exist across parts of the middle/upper Texas
Coast and a small portion of coastal Louisiana on Monday in
association with Tropical Storm Beta.

...Coastal Texas/Louisiana...
Tropical Storm Beta is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to
approach the middle TX Coast on Monday, perhaps making landfall
sometime Monday night. Latest guidance continues to suggest that at
least mid 70s surface dewpoints will spread inland across parts of
the middle/upper TX Coast and far southwestern LA through the
period. Modestly enhanced east-southeasterly low-level winds should
also be present in the northeastern quadrant of Beta's circulation.
Latest official NHC forecast indicates little potential for Beta to
strengthen further before landfall due to the continued presence of
moderate southwesterly shear and fairly dry air at mid levels. Even
so, there remains a signal in most guidance that a favorable overlap
of weak instability and sufficient low-level shear should occur
somewhere along the middle/upper TX Coast and perhaps far
southwestern LA Monday into Monday night. Isolated low-topped
thunderstorms in outer rain bands capable of producing occasional
strong/gusty straight-line winds and perhaps a tornado or two
appears to be the main threat. The ongoing Marginal Risk has been
adjusted slightly to the northeast to account for the latest
forecast track of Beta.

..Gleason.. 09/20/2020

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ACUS02 KWNS 201729
SWODY2
SPC AC 201727

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2020

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER COASTS OF TEXAS INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN
LOUISIANA...

...SUMMARY...
An isolated threat for strong/gusty thunderstorm winds and perhaps a
tornado or two may exist across parts of the middle/upper Texas
Coast and a small portion of coastal Louisiana on Monday in
association with Tropical Storm Beta.

...Coastal Texas/Louisiana...
The latest forecast by the National Hurricane Center shows Tropical
Storm Beta approaching the middle TX Coast on Monday, perhaps making
landfall sometime Monday night. It seems likely that at least mid
70s F surface dewpoints will spread inland across parts of the
middle/upper TX Coast and far southwestern LA through the
period. Low-level shear is forecast to strengthen especially over
the Upper Coast of TX into southwest LA. It is plausible a few
transient supercells may develop and potentially be capable of
strong/gusty winds and perhaps a brief tornado or two.

..Smith.. 09/20/2020

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ACUS02 KWNS 211711
SWODY2
SPC AC 211709

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1209 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2020

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST TEXAS
INTO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...

...SUMMARY...
An isolated threat for a brief/weak tornado may develop Tuesday for
parts of the upper Texas Coast into coastal Louisiana in association
with Tropical Cyclone Beta.

...Coastal Southeastern Texas into Southern Louisiana...
Tropical Storm Beta is currently forecast by the National Hurricane
Center to be near the middle TX Coast early Tuesday morning and
drift slowly northeastward along the coast while weakening. Model
guidance shows modest low-level shear (primarily before the late
afternoon) co-located with low to mid 70s surface dewpoints.
Forecast hodographs correspondingly are forecast to be largest
during the morning before gradually reducing in size during the
afternoon into the evening. Effective shear near 25 kt may support
transient storm organization. A weak spout associated with
nonsupercell convection or a brief/weak tornado with a marginal
supercell cannot be ruled out near the Upper Coast of TX and
southwestern LA. The risk will likely diminish late in the day and
into Tuesday night.

...North Dakota...
A shortwave trough embedded within mid-level westerly flow is
forecast to move eastward along the U.S./Canada border from the
Pacific Northwest to the northern Plains through the period.
Low-level moisture is forecast to remain quite meager ahead of this
feature until it reaches the vicinity of ND late Tuesday night,
where upper 40s to perhaps low/mid 50s surface dewpoints may be
present. A modest southerly low-level jet along with a
southeastward-surging cold front may aid convective initiation late
Tuesday night across northern ND into south-central Canada. Steep
mid-level lapse rates should also be present over this region, and
potential exists for mainly elevated storms to produce some hail
given the forecast combination of weak to locally moderate
instability and strong deep-layer shear. Regardless, will continue
to defer inclusion of any severe probabilities across northern ND,
as latest guidance differs on both the degree of low-level moisture
present and overall storm coverage.

..Smith.. 09/21/2020

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ACUS02 KWNS 221728
SWODY2
SPC AC 221726

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1226 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2020

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EAST CENTRAL/NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA AND ADJACENT NORTHWESTERN
WISCONSIN...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe storms may occur Wednesday evening across
parts of northeastern Minnesota and into northwestern Wisconsin.
Large hail should be the main threat, along with potential for a
strong gust or two.

...Synopsis...
Weak flow aloft will prevail over roughly the southern 2/3 of the
CONUS this period, with T.D. Beta -- moving slowly northeastward
across east Texas and Louisiana through the period -- the primary
feature of interest. Please refer to the latest forecast
information from the National Hurricane Center, regarding T.D. Beta.

Farther north, a short-wave trough will advance steadily eastward
across the north-central portion of the country, ahead of a
larger/stronger trough over the Gulf of Alaska. A short-wave piece
of the larger trough is forecast to shift inland into the Pacific
Northwest overnight.

At the surface, a cold front is forecast to advance across the
northwestern states ahead of the aforementioned trough, while a
weaker low lingers in the vicinity of the mid Missouri Valley. A
warm front extending east-northeastward from this low to the Lake
Superior vicinity may focus a small area of strong to severe storms
during the second half of the period.

...Upper Mississippi Valley region...
Isolated evening thunderstorms are expected to develop across
portions of east central and northeastern Minnesota, and then spread
into northwestern Wisconsin overnight, near a warm-frontal boundary
forecast to extend east-northeastward across this area, east of a
weak mid Missouri Valley surface low.

Though westerly mid-level flow near 40 kt across the area suggests
shear sufficient for organized storms, modest CAPE is expected,
which should hinder overall storm intensity/severe potential. Thus,
will maintain only 5%/MRGL risk for hail, and possibly and stronger
wind gust or two.

...Louisiana vicinity...
As Beta drifts slowly northeastward across the Sabine River Valley
area, bands of convection will continue spreading across the lower
Mississippi River Valley area. Widespread clouds should largely
hinder potential for any appreciable heating/destabilization, and
thus expect convection to remain weak. Though low-level shear is
expected to be sufficient for some low-level rotation in any
stronger/sustained convective cell, risk for a brief/weak tornado
appears too low at this time to warrant introduction of a 2% tornado probability/MRGL categorical risk area.

..Goss.. 09/22/2020

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ACUS02 KWNS 231724
SWODY2
SPC AC 231722

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1222 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2020

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms may occur Thursday across parts of
Mississippi into southern/central Alabama and the Florida Panhandle.
Damaging winds and perhaps a brief tornado or two will be the main
threats.

...Synopsis...
Weak flow aloft is forecast across the southern half of the U.S.
Thursday, with the faster/more active belt of westerlies to remain
over the northern half of the country through the period.

Mid-level remnants of tropical system Beta, and a short-wave trough
moving across the Great Lakes region, are forecast to gradually
merge across the northeastern quarter of the country. Meanwhile, as
a short-wave trough moves across the northwestern states and
Canadian Rockies, an accompanying westerly mid-level jet will expand
across the northwestern and eventually north-central portions of the
CONUS.

At the surface, the remnant low that was Beta will weaken with time
as it crosses Mississippi and later moves into the Tennessee Valley
region. Meanwhile, a low over the upper Midwest will likewise
weaken with time, as a cold front crosses the northwestern quarter
of the country and eventually shifts into the Dakotas/Nebraska
overnight.

...Parts of Mississippi into Alabama and the Florida Panhandle...
Though remnant tropical system Beta is expected to continue
weakening as it shifts slowly northeastward across the central Gulf
Coast states, southerly winds ahead of the system will advect rich
Gulf moisture northward into this area. Despite the moist low
levels, any diurnal heating will be at least partially offset by
weak lapse rates aloft, thus yielding only modest CAPE. Still,
given veering flow with height east and southeast of the remnant
low, shear may be sufficient to support a couple of stronger storms,
and associated/low-probability potential for locally gusty winds --
and possibly a brief tornado or two -- mainly during the first half
of the period.

..Goss.. 09/23/2020

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ACUS02 KWNS 241714
SWODY2
SPC AC 241713

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1213 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2020

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHEAST...AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Friday across
parts of the Southeast, and later over a portion of the western
Upper Great Lakes area.

...Synopsis...
While weak flow aloft will continue to prevail across the southern
half of the country, fast/weakly cyclonic westerly flow over the
northern Rockies/northern Plains will expand gradually eastward
across the upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes area. Within this fast
belt of flow, several embedded vorticity maxima will traverse the
northern tier of the CONUS. Farther south, a short-wave trough over
the Ohio Valley and Mid South region will cross the Appalachians and
move into the Southeast states through the period.

At the surface, a cold front is forecast to shift gradually eastward/southeastward across the north-central U.S. with time, and
should extend from the Upper Great Lakes to the Colorado Front Range
by Saturday morning. Elsewhere, a very weak/remnant low is forecast
to drift from Tennessee to the Carolinas through the period.

...The Southeast...
Modest heating over the Southeast during the day, combined with a
moist low-level airmass ahead of a very weak Mid South/southern
Appalachians remnant of tropical system Beta, will permit bands of
showers and thunderstorms to increase through the day, spreading
across Georgia and the Carolinas with time. With ample low-level
veering of the flow with height to persist, and some enhancement to
the mid-level westerlies in conjunction with short-wave trough
aloft, a few stronger/organized updrafts will likely evolve with
time. Along with potential for locally gusty winds capable of
mainly tree damage, a brief tornadic spin-up or two will also be
possible across this region.

...Northern Wisconsin and western Upper Michigan...
The eastward advance of a surface cold front, and associated upper
short-wave troughing, across the upper Mississippi Valley during the afternoon/evening may support isolated convective development in the northwestern Wisconsin/western Lake Superior vicinity by early
evening, while capping is expected to largely suppress convective
development with southwestward extent along the cold front.

Where any storm can develop, modest CAPE and sufficient shear
suggest potential for updraft intensification -- warranting mention
of local risk for gusty winds and/or hail -- mainly during the
evening hours.

..Goss.. 09/24/2020

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ACUS02 KWNS 250449
SWODY2
SPC AC 250447

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1147 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2020

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms strong enough to produce occasional hail are
possible across portions of the Upper Midwest Saturday evening into
early Sunday morning.

...Upper Midwest...
Broad upper troughing is forecast to be in place across the northern
CONUS early Saturday morning before deepening/amplifying throughout
the day. Lead shortwave trough embedded within this upper troughing
is expected to progress from the northern High Plains eastward
across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. An associated surface
low will move just ahead of the shortwave while an attendant cold
front sweeps across the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest.
Mid 60s dewpoints and steep mid-level lapse rates will be in place
ahead of this front, but warm and dry mid-levels will result in
substantial convective inhibition across much of the region
(particularly with southern extent into the Mid MS Valley).
Consequently, surface-based, warm-sector storms are unlikely.
However, robust warm-air advection associated with strong low-level southwesterly flow may result in scattered elevated thunderstorms
north of the warm front (i.e. over northern WI and Upper MI)
Saturday evening into early Sunday morning. Buoyancy will be limited
but strong vertical shear could still result in a few updrafts
strong enough to produce hail.

...Elsewhere...
Scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across eastern VA and
the Carolinas Saturday morning, ahead of a compact shortwave trough
forecast to continue eastward off the central East Coast by Saturday
afternoon.

..Mosier.. 09/25/2020

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ACUS02 KWNS 260551
SWODY2
SPC AC 260549

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2020

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...OZARK PLATEAU...AND LOWER MO
VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible late Sunday afternoon
through Sunday evening across northern portions of the southern
Plains and adjacent Ozark Plateau.

...Synopsis...
Overall upper pattern is expected to amplify significantly on Sunday
as troughing deepens across the central CONUS and ridging builds
over the western CONUS. The central CONUS deepening will be induced
primarily by the progression of a strong shortwave trough from the
northern Rockies into the central Plains. A cold front will begin
the period extending southwestward from a low over south-central
Ontario to another low in the central TX Panhandle.
Evolution of the previously mentioned shortwave trough (and
accompanying cold air in its wake) will result in the
southward/southeastward surge of this front, taking it through the
mid MS Valley and majority of the southern Plains by early Monday
morning.

Elsewhere, a weak upper low is forecast to be centered over the
Mid-South early Sunday. This low is expected to transition to an
open wave while accelerating northeastward over the Southeast and TN
Valley ahead of amplifying upper trough over the Plains.

...Southern Plains into the Ozark Plateau and Lower MO Valley...
A warm and seasonally moist air mass is expected to be in place
across the region ahead of the approaching cold front. These warm
and moist low-levels beneath steep mid-level lapse rates favor
strong buoyancy. However, warm mid-level temperatures and resulting
convective inhibition introduce uncertainty regarding convective
initiation within the open warm sector ahead the front. A more
likely scenario is for storms to develop along the front, with the
progressive, fast-moving character of the front then quickly
undercutting any updrafts. Strengthening low-level southerly flow
ahead of the front could also lead to additional post-frontal
development.

All of these factors point to predominantly elevated storms. The
vertical shear is expected to be strong enough to support rotation
within the more robust updrafts, with an attendant threat for
isolated severe hail. Given the strength of the low-level flow along
and behind the front, convectively augmented downdrafts could be
strong enough to result in a damaging wind gust or two.

...Southeast GA into Northern FL...
Shortwave trough moving quickly across the Southeast and TN Valley
is expected to result in scattered thunderstorms across portions of
AL, GA, and northern FL. Enhanced mid-level flow throughout the base
of this shortwave could result in a few more organized storms and
the potential for isolated damaging wind gusts. Uncertainty
regarding the speed and strength of the shortwave as well as the
degree of air mass destabilization results in too much uncertainty
to introduce any probabilities with this outlook.

..Mosier.. 09/26/2020

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ACUS02 KWNS 261721
SWODY2
SPC AC 261720

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2020

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND OZARK PLATEAU...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible late Sunday afternoon
through Sunday evening across northern portions of the southern
Plains and adjacent Ozark Plateau.

...Southern Plains through Ozark Plateau area...

Significant amplification of a synoptic trough is expected across
the central U.S. Sunday with a series of embedded vorticity maxima
moving southeast through the central Plains. In association with the
amplifying trough, a seasonably strong cold front, initially
extending from the upper Great Lakes southwestward through KS and
the TX Panhandle, will advance southeast during the period. By 12Z
Monday this boundary should stretch from the lower Great Lakes into
southern AR and south central TX. Surface dewpoints in the mid to
upper 60s F will reside in the pre-frontal warm sector, and the
atmosphere is expected to become moderately unstable with 1500-2000
J/kg MLCAPE but with modest lapse rates. Weak forcing and a thermal
inversion suggest the warm sector will remain capped to
surface-based storms during the day. However, storms will likely
initiate along and north of the cold front by late afternoon.
Activity developing near the cold front will likely be quickly
undercut, favoring mostly elevated storms capable of some hail, but
a few locally strong gusts are also possible. Given the largely
ana-frontal nature of the setup and a modest thermodynamic
environment, overall threat does not appear to warrant more than a
MRGL risk category at this time.

..Dial.. 09/26/2020

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ACUS02 KWNS 270555
SWODY2
SPC AC 270553

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2020

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER OH VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of isolated damaging wind gusts are possible
along a cold front as it moves across the Ohio Valley.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A deep upper trough is expected to be in place over the central and
eastern CONUS early Monday morning before progressing eastward and
deepening throughout the day. Two distinct circulations will be
embedded within this upper troughing, one which will gradually move east-northeastward across the Upper Great Lakes and one which move
southward through the mid MS Valley towards the Mid-South. Farther
west, upper ridging over the western CONUS is forecast to build
eastward in the wake of the upper trough, extending from the Pacific
Northwest into central Mexico by the end of the period.

At the surface, cold front along the leading edge of the continental
air mass (associated with the upper trough) will likely extend from southwestern Ontario southwestward into the TX Hill Country early
Monday morning. Continued eastward/southeastward progression of this
front is forecast throughout the day, with the front expected to
extend from a low over the Lower Great Lakes region southwestward
into the northwestern Gulf of Mexico by Monday evening. Surface
cyclogenesis is anticipated late Monday night/early Tuesday morning
along the portion of front across the Southeast, induced by lift
attendant to previously mentioned embedded upper low.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected along the length of the
front, with predominantly anafrontal character to the storms. The
only exception is across the middle and upper OH Valley, where
strong flow aloft is expected to more closely align with the surface
front. As a result, the potential for a few strong, convectively
augmented gusts exists along the front. Abundant cloud cover and
limited buoyancy is currently expected, precluding a more widespread
damaging wind gust potential.

..Mosier.. 09/27/2020

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ACUS02 KWNS 281730
SWODY2
SPC AC 281728

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2020

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
CAROLINAS INTO A PORTION OF THE COASTAL MIDDLE ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe thunderstorms with isolated damaging wind and a couple
of tornadoes are possible across the eastern Carolinas into the
coastal Middle Atlantic Tuesday.

...Eastern Carolinas into the coastal Middle Atlantic...

Synoptic upper trough will undergo significant amplification over
the eastern states today through early Tuesday with deep layer flow
becoming increasingly parallel to the accompanying cold front. This
front should extend from a surface low in southeastern Canada
through the western Carolinas and into the central Gulf by 12Z
tomorrow. The front will continue slowly east and off the Atlantic
Seaboard toward the end of day 2. A significant vorticity maximum is
forecast to rotate through the base of the synoptic trough then
northeast into the Carolinas and Middle Atlantic Tuesday night.
Forcing accompanying this feature will remain mostly in the post
frontal zone, but will be sufficient to induce a weak cyclone that
will move from the Carolinas through the Middle Atlantic overnight,
before reaching the Northeast States late Tuesday night.

Rich low-level moisture with low 70s F dewpoints will reside in the
pre-frontal sector, but very weak lapse rates, widespread clouds and
ongoing areas of showers and storms will limit potential for
significant destabilization with MLCAPE from 400-800 J/kg possible.
While a few strong storms with gusty winds might be possible with
activity developing along and ahead of the front during the day
given sufficient (40-45 kt) unidirectional shear, the best severe
threat may be during the evening and overnight when frontogenetic
forcing and low-level shear increase in association with an
intensifying southerly low-level jet from the eastern Carolinas into
the Middle Atlantic. This process may result in the development of a
more robust line of storms along the cold front with potential for a
few embedded organized structures capable of damaging wind and
perhaps a couple of tornadoes. Given an expected marginal
thermodynamic environment, will maintain MRGL risk category this
outlook and continue to monitor for a possible SLGT risk upgrade in
later updates.

...Southern New England...

The stronger frontogenetic forcing might result in development of a
low-topped line of convection with little to no lightning across
southern New England late in the period. Though a few strong wind
gusts cannot be ruled out, will preclude introduction of severe
probabilities this update given expected very limited instability.

..Dial.. 09/28/2020

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ACUS02 KWNS 291658
SWODY2
SPC AC 291656

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1156 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2020

Valid 301200Z - 011200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected Wednesday.

...Synopsis...

A large-scale upper trough will persist over much of the CONUS east
of the Rockies on Wednesday. A shortwave trough embedded within this larger-scale system is forecast to extend from the Mid-Atlantic
vicinity into FL early Wednesday, and lift northeastward through the
period. A surface cold front attendant to a low over New England and
Quebec will extend from VT/NH into eastern MA/CT southward to the
offshore waters along the Atlantic coast before intersecting
southern FL. Moist and unstable conditions could result in isolated thunderstorms across southern FL, though weak shear and poor
midlevel lapse rates will preclude severe thunderstorm potential. A
couple of thunderstorms may be ongoing near Cape Cod for an hour or
two at the very start of the period, but the cold front will quickly
shift east and push any activity offshore.

Otherwise, cold temperatures aloft will result in steep midlevel
lapse rates across the Great Lakes region, promoting weak
destabilization during the afternoon/early evening. Weak
instability, combined with moderate to strong mid/upper flow and
forcing for ascent streaming across the region as the upper trough
pivots eastward, could result in a few weak thunderstorms from the
Lake Michigan vicinity eastward to western NY.

..Leitman.. 09/29/2020

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ACUS02 KWNS 301706
SWODY2
SPC AC 301705

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1205 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2020

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.

...Synopsis...

An amplified upper level pattern will persist across the CONUS on
Thursday, with a ridge over the western states and a trough over the
eastern states. Surface high pressure will develop east/southeast
from the Plains toward the Midwest through the period. A generally
dry and stable airmass will be in place behind the prior cold front
which moved across the eastern U.S. earlier this week. This will
limit thunderstorm activity except across south FL where deeper
moisture and stronger heating will result in isolated thunderstorm
potential.

Additional isolated thunderstorms are possible across parts of the
Great Lakes as well. Cold temperatures aloft will result in steep
lapse rates and weak instability as a shortwave trough embedded in
larger-scale eastern trough pivots east/northeast across the Midwest
and Northeast on Thursday.

Warm and dry conditions beneath the western upper ridge will
preclude thunderstorm activity west of the Rockies.

..Leitman.. 09/30/2020

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ACUS02 KWNS 011630
SWODY2
SPC AC 011628

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CDT Thu Oct 01 2020

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday.

...Discussion...

Large-scale pattern is expected to remain unfavorable for
thunderstorms across much of the CONUS during the day2 period, with
the exceptions of south Florida and in the lee of the lower Great
Lakes.

Dominant upper ridge will remain anchored over the western US
through this weekend which will ensure troughing east of the
Rockies. One significant short-wave trough will rotate across the
upper OH Valley into New England Friday afternoon. Lowering
heights/cooling mid-level temperatures will become increasingly
favorable for weak convection across Lake Ontario extending into
northern portions of NY. While most convection will struggle to
attain heights necessary for lightning, isolated thunderstorms are
expected with the strongest updrafts.

Farther south across the southern FL Peninsula, a prolonged corridor
of low-level confluence is expected to remain focused across the FL Straits/south FL. Poor lapse rates, but very moist, and adequately
buoyant, profiles suggest some thunderstorm threat across this
region through the period.

..Darrow.. 10/01/2020

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ACUS02 KWNS 021750
SWODY2
SPC AC 021748

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 PM CDT Fri Oct 02 2020

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected Saturday.

...Discussion...

Upper ridge will hold over the southwestern US while troughing
remains the predominant feature east of the Rockies. As a result, higher-quality moisture/buoyancy have been shunted into the
southeast Gulf basin, extending across the FL Peninsula. While lapse
rates will remain poor across this region, an elongated corridor of
low-level confluence will persist across the southern Peninsula
which will likely focus convection through the period.

Farther west, a secondary mid-level short-wave trough will dig
southeast across the Great Plains to a position from eastern
KS/central OK by 04/06z. This feature will encourage weak convection
along/just north of a surface front as it sags southeast across
KS/OK into MO/AR region. A narrow zone of stronger boundary-layer
heating should be noted ahead of the front from northwest TX into
south-central OK. While low-level lapse rates will steepen along
this corridor, forecast soundings suggest convective temperatures
may not be breached. For this reason, frontal lift should result in
more elevated updrafts.

..Darrow.. 10/02/2020

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ACUS02 KWNS 030436
SWODY2
SPC AC 030435

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1135 PM CDT Fri Oct 02 2020

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
Sunday through Sunday night.

...Discussion...
Models continue to indicate that large-scale mid-level ridging will
persist within the westerlies across the northern mid-latitude
eastern Pacific into British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest,
with general troughing east of the Rockies. However, inland of the
Pacific coast, flow may continue to trend a bit more zonal.

At least a pair of short wave perturbations, comprising initially
amplified mid-level troughing across the Upper Midwest into the
lower Missouri Valley and Ozark Plateau at the outset of the period,
are forecast to trend out of phase Sunday through Sunday night. It
appears that the most significant of these will accelerate
east-northeastward across the lower Ohio Valley, toward northern Mid
Atlantic coastal areas. As it approaches the coast late Sunday
night, associated forcing may contribute to surface wave development
along a frontal zone offshore.

Seasonably high precipitable water will remain confined to a narrow
plume along the frontal zone, extending southwestward across the
Florida Peninsula into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Scattered
thunderstorm activity appears most probable near the Gulf Stream and
across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, with potential for
appreciable boundary-layer destabilization inland of Florida coastal
areas remaining a bit more unclear.

Otherwise, some scattered, weak thunderstorm activity appears
possible late Sunday afternoon and evening across parts of
central/eastern Ohio and adjacent portions of the Ohio Valley, where
the mid-level cold pool associated with the vigorous short wave
trough may overspread a corridor of stronger daytime heating.

..Kerr.. 10/03/2020

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ACUS02 KWNS 031635
SWODY2
SPC AC 031633

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1133 AM CDT Sat Oct 03 2020

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
Sunday through Sunday night.

...Synopsis...

An upper trough from the Great Lakes to the lower MS Valley will
develop east/northeast across the eastern U.S. on Sunday. At the
surface, a cold front is forecast to extend from lower MI
southwestward into central TX during the morning hours. The front
will progress eastward across much of the eastern U.S. by Monday
morning. A dearth of low level moisture will limit thunderstorm
activity, though a lightning flash or two is possible across parts
of the Ohio Valley where cold temperatures aloft will result in
steep lapse rates amid shallow convection. However, coverage is
expected to be sparse and less than 10%. Greater thunderstorm
coverage is possible further southeast across the central/southern
FL Peninsula where deeper boundary layer moisture and warmer
temperatures will allow for greater destabilization ahead of the
surface front. Additional isolated thunderstorms also are possible
near the NC Outer Banks.

Warm and dry conditions will continue across the western states as a
strong upper level ridge persists.

..Leitman.. 10/03/2020

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ACUS02 KWNS 040504
SWODY2
SPC AC 040502

Day 2 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1202 AM CDT Sun Oct 04 2020

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

CORRECTED GRAPHIC LINE END POINT

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
Monday through Monday night.

...Discussion...
Models continue to indicate that low-amplitude mid-level ridging
within the westerlies will expand eastward, from the northern
mid-latitude eastern Pacific through the Canadian Prairies and
northern U.S. Great Plains by late Monday night. Downstream,
mid-level flow likely will remain largely zonal, with a number of
embedded, progressive short wave troughs.

One of these perturbations is forecast to accelerate east of the
northern Mid Atlantic coast during the day Monday, accompanied by a
developing wave along an offshore frontal zone. While the front
advances further away from the Mid Atlantic coast, it may slowly
advance northward through portions of northern Florida, and more
rapidly northwestward through the central Gulf of Mexico, to the
north of Tropical Storm Gamma.

Seasonably high moisture content will remain confined to areas along
and south of this front, with substantive boundary-layer
destabilization generally limited to central and southern portions
of the Florida Peninsula during the day Monday. This could provide
support for some thunderstorm activity.

Elsewhere, generally dry and/or stable conditions are expected to
prevail with negligible risk for thunderstorm activity.

..Kerr.. 10/04/2020

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ACUS02 KWNS 041710
SWODY2
SPC AC 041709

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1209 PM CDT Sun Oct 04 2020

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through Tuesday morning.

...Synopsis...

Mid-level ridging is expected to persist across the western United
States on Monday, with modest downstream troughing occurring across
the Great Lakes. Several short-wave troughs embedded within this
larger-scale pattern will quickly move through the flow. One such
trough will accelerate east off the Mid-Atlantic coast, with another
digging southward across the Great Lakes.

At the surface, much of the eastern United States will be under the
influence of a cool, dry continental airmass in the wake of previous
frontal passages. The composite of these frontal intrusions is
draped across the northern Florida Peninsula. To its south,
seasonably high moisture content and modest surface destabilization
will support a risk for thunderstorms. However, the overall
environment will remain unsupportive of organized severe
thunderstorms.

..Marsh.. 10/04/2020

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ACUS02 KWNS 051632
SWODY2
SPC AC 051631

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1131 AM CDT Mon Oct 05 2020

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms will remain negligible Tuesday
through Tuesday night.

...Synopsis...

An amplified upper pattern with a trough in the east and a ridge in
the west will persist across the CONUS on Tuesday. Warm and dry
conditions are expected beneath the western ridge. Further east,
deeper boundary layer moisture will remain confined to the Gulf
Coast and into the southeastern Atlantic coastal vicinity. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across Florida northeastward along
the GA and SC/NC coast/near-shore waters vicinity where stronger
heating will allow for weak destabilization. Low level confluence
and sea breeze interactions will be the main drivers of any
thunderstorm activity in these areas.

Further north across the upper Great Lakes area, strong
northwesterly flow will overspread the region as the upper trough
pivots east/northeast through the period. Steep midlevel lapse rates
and cold temperatures aloft will aid in development of shallow
convection, and a few thunderstorms are possible, mainly during the
afternoon into the early overnight period.

..Leitman.. 10/05/2020

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ACUS02 KWNS 061730
SWODY2
SPC AC 061729

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 PM CDT Tue Oct 06 2020

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS UPSTATE NEW YORK
AND NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with marginally severe wind gusts will be
possible across parts of Upstate New York through northern New
England Wednesday afternoon and evening.

...Upstate New York/northern New England...
An upper-level trough will move eastward from the lower Great Lakes
Wednesday morning into New England Wednesday afternoon. At the
surface, a low will deepen and move across southern Quebec. An
associated cold front will advance eastward across New York and into
New England. Ahead of the front, a corridor of weak instability will
be in place from Lake Ontario eastward into central New England.
Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop along this corridor
during the day as the cold front moves eastward across the region.
MLCAPE near 500 J/kg along with 850 mb winds of 40 to 50 kt will
create conditions supportive of marginally severe wind gusts. The
wind damage potential should remain very isolated due to the weak
instability and does not warrant the issuance of a slight risk.

..Broyles.. 10/06/2020

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ACUS02 KWNS 071636
SWODY2
SPC AC 071634

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1134 AM CDT Wed Oct 07 2020

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA...

...SUMMARY...
A tornado is possible over southern Louisiana Thursday night.

...Central Gulf Coast...
Hurricane Delta is forecast to move north over the west-central Gulf
of Mexico on Thursday and Thursday night and approach the Louisiana
coast according to the National Hurricane Center's latest forecast.
A maritime tropical airmass will gradually infiltrate the coastal
parishes of Louisiana during the day and the I-10 corridor during
the evening and overnight. Within the outer northeastern envelope
of Hurricane Delta, low-level flow is forecast to intensify across
southern Louisiana with enlarged hodographs. As low-level moisture
increases and surface dewpoints rise into the lower-mid 70s F, the
development of 200-800 J/kg MLCAPE is possible across southern
Louisiana. A few of the stronger updrafts located in the outer
bands of Delta may yield intermittent storm-scale rotation and a
possible tornado risk, mainly late Thursday night into early Friday
morning.

Elsewhere, generally tranquil conditions will occur across much of
the contiguous United States.

..Smith.. 10/07/2020

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ACUS02 KWNS 080450
SWODY2
SPC AC 080449

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1149 PM CDT Wed Oct 07 2020

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST VICINITY...

...SUMMARY...
A few tornadoes may accompany the landfall of Hurricane Delta,
mainly across parts of southeastern Louisiana Friday afternoon and
evening.

...Synopsis...
Models continue to indicate that the main belt of westerlies across
the mid-latitude Pacific into North America may begin to undergo
amplification during this period. It appears that this will include
a digging mid-level trough to the west of the Pacific Northwest
coast. and building large-scale ridging across the Canadian/U.S.
Rockies through the Canadian Prairies and the northern U.S. Great
Plains. Downstream of the ridging, a short wave trough is forecast
to dig across northwestern Ontario.

Within a lingering weaker branch, split off to the south of the
stronger flow, a short wave trough, with an embedded mid-level low,
may gradually begin to progress into southern California and
adjacent areas of the Southwest. As this occurs, some eastward
progression of weak downstream troughing east of the southern Great
Plains is expected, though mid-level ridging across the subtropical
western Atlantic into parts of the Southeast may hold firm.

In response to these developments, Hurricane Delta is forecast to
continue accelerating northward, then northeastward, around the
periphery of the ridging, before the mid-level circulation center
becomes increasingly absorbed within the mid-level trough, as it
progresses inland of the Louisiana Gulf coast. Delta is expected to
be in the process of weakening as it makes landfall by early Friday
evening, and more rapid weakening probably will ensue as it
continues inland across Louisiana, late Friday evening through
daybreak Saturday.

In advance of Delta, and ahead of the weak mid/upper troughing
emerging from the southern Great Plains, seasonably high
precipitable water content likely will advect north-northeastward in
a plume off the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. However, relatively
dry/potential cool boundary-layer air as far south as portions of
the Gulf coastal plain may be initially slow to modify.

...Gulf Coast...
At the outset of the period, it still appears that surface dew
points near or just above 70 F may be confined to immediate coastal
areas, though perhaps a bit farther inland across southeastern
Louisiana than other areas, to the north of Hurricane Delta. Across
the remainder of the Gulf coastal plain, surface dew points may
generally be in the mid/upper 60s F, with mid 70s F dew points
mostly well offshore.

Given the warm mid-level environment initially present, and
advecting inland with Delta, mid 70s surface dew points probably
will need to advect inland to contribute to sufficient
boundary-layer destabilization to support an appreciable risk for
tornadoes. Forecast soundings in recent model runs are increasingly
suggestive that this is possible, at least in a corridor inland of
southeastern Louisiana coastal areas, just in advance of and with
the landfall of Delta. East-northeast and east of the low-level
circulation center, enlarging, clockwise-curved low-level hodographs
in forecast soundings also appear increasingly conducive to tornado
potential, in the presence of weak boundary-layer layer instability,
perhaps by mid to late Friday afternoon.

The tornado threat may persist into Friday evening, before probably
diminishing overnight.

..Kerr.. 10/08/2020

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ACUS02 KWNS 081646
SWODY2
SPC AC 081645

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1145 AM CDT Thu Oct 08 2020

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA INTO FAR SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...

...SUMMARY...
A few tornadoes are possible mainly across parts of southern
Louisiana Friday afternoon and evening.

...Central Gulf Coast...
Hurricane Delta will move northward and make landfall on the
southwest Louisiana coast Friday evening and move
north-northeastward across central into northeast Louisiana
according to the latest National Hurricane Center forecast. The
gradual northward advection of a very moist/tropical airmass into
southern Louisiana will occur during the day as the low-level wind
field intensifies in the northeast quadrant of Hurricane Delta.
Forecast soundings show mid 70s F dewpoints coincident with the
development of several hundred J/kg SBCAPE with large hodographs. A
few of the stronger updrafts within the outer bands of Delta may
intermittently acquire low-level mesosyclones and a tornado risk.
The tornado risk will slowly spread northward during the
evening/overnight into southern MS, with the tornado threat
diminishing with time across southern coastal parishes of Louisiana
and eventually into central Louisiana during the early morning as
low-level winds veer.

..Smith.. 10/08/2020

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ACUS02 KWNS 091728
SWODY2
SPC AC 091727

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 PM CDT Fri Oct 09 2020

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEST-CENTRAL
ALABAMA INTO NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK INTO
WESTERN MAINE...

...SUMMARY...
A few tornadoes are possible on Saturday across parts of Alabama and Mississippi. Severe gusts are possible across parts of northern New
York into western Maine.

...MS/AL/Fl Panhandle...
Tropical cyclone Delta will move from northeast Louisiana to near
the AL/MS/TN border during the period according to the latest
National Hurricane Center forecast. A very moist airmass will
become conditionally unstable during the day amidst thinning cloud
cover/cloud breaks within the southeast quadrant of Delta. Modest
heating will contribute to weak buoyancy (250-750 J/kg MLCAPE)
maximizing in an arc from southwest AL northward near the AL/MS
border and protruding north-northwestward into north-central MS by
mid-late afternoon. It appears a window of opportunity for
appreciable destabilization will overlap with strong low-level
flow/enlarged hodographs to yield a risk for a more focused zone of
low-level mesoyclone potential. It seems the tornado threat will be
highest during the afternoon and perhaps linger into the early
evening before diminishing coincident with the loss of diurnal
heating.

...Northern New England into western NY...
An upper trough is forecast to amplify across Quebec, with strong
low to mid-level west-southwesterly flow overspreading much of the
Northeast by Saturday afternoon. A cold front initially near the
St. Lawrence Valley at midday will move east-southeastward across
New England and the Adirondacks by early Saturday evening. Although
only limited low-level moisture is forecast in advance of the cold
front (50s deg F), cool 500mb temperatures around -16 deg C will
yield 200-800 J/kg MLCAPE from the Mohawk Valley northward into
western Maine. A broken band of low-topped storms is forecast by
mid afternoon and expected to grow upscale with time. The strong to
very strong low-level westerly flow will enlarge hodographs such
that a tornado cannot be ruled out. However, the primary severe
risk will be scattered damaging gusts associated with a combination
of fast-moving clusters/linear segments via momentum transport. The
severe risk will likely diminish by the early evening as storms move
east of the instability axis and nocturnal stabilization lessens the
risk for severe gusts.

..Smith.. 10/09/2020

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NEW YORK! :D

ACUS02 KWNS 091728
SWODY2
SPC AC 091727

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 PM CDT Fri Oct 09 2020

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEST-CENTRAL
ALABAMA INTO NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK INTO
WESTERN MAINE...

...SUMMARY...
A few tornadoes are possible on Saturday across parts of Alabama and Mississippi. Severe gusts are possible across parts of northern New
York into western Maine.

...MS/AL/Fl Panhandle...
Tropical cyclone Delta will move from northeast Louisiana to near
the AL/MS/TN border during the period according to the latest
National Hurricane Center forecast. A very moist airmass will
become conditionally unstable during the day amidst thinning cloud
cover/cloud breaks within the southeast quadrant of Delta. Modest
heating will contribute to weak buoyancy (250-750 J/kg MLCAPE)
maximizing in an arc from southwest AL northward near the AL/MS
border and protruding north-northwestward into north-central MS by
mid-late afternoon. It appears a window of opportunity for
appreciable destabilization will overlap with strong low-level
flow/enlarged hodographs to yield a risk for a more focused zone of
low-level mesoyclone potential. It seems the tornado threat will be
highest during the afternoon and perhaps linger into the early
evening before diminishing coincident with the loss of diurnal
heating.

...Northern New England into western NY...
An upper trough is forecast to amplify across Quebec, with strong
low to mid-level west-southwesterly flow overspreading much of the
Northeast by Saturday afternoon. A cold front initially near the
St. Lawrence Valley at midday will move east-southeastward across
New England and the Adirondacks by early Saturday evening. Although
only limited low-level moisture is forecast in advance of the cold
front (50s deg F), cool 500mb temperatures around -16 deg C will
yield 200-800 J/kg MLCAPE from the Mohawk Valley northward into
western Maine. A broken band of low-topped storms is forecast by
mid afternoon and expected to grow upscale with time. The strong to
very strong low-level westerly flow will enlarge hodographs such
that a tornado cannot be ruled out. However, the primary severe
risk will be scattered damaging gusts associated with a combination
of fast-moving clusters/linear segments via momentum transport. The
severe risk will likely diminish by the early evening as storms move
east of the instability axis and nocturnal stabilization lessens the
risk for severe gusts.

..Smith.. 10/09/2020

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 100551
SWODY2
SPC AC 100550

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2020

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Sunday across
parts of the northern/central Plains into the Upper Midwest, with
marginally severe thunderstorms also possible across parts of the
Southeast.

...Northern/Central Plains into the Upper Midwest...
A large-scale upper trough over western Canada and the northern
Rockies will move eastward Sunday into central Canada, the
northern/central Plains, and Upper Midwest. This upper trough should
acquire a negative tilt by Sunday evening, while strong low to
mid-level south-southwesterly winds overspread these regions. At the
surface, a cold front will sweep eastward across the Dakotas and NE
Sunday afternoon/evening, and continue into the Upper Midwest Sunday
night. An EML will likely suppress convective development along the
front through much of the day until it encounters mid 50s to perhaps
lower 60s surface dewpoints late Sunday afternoon across far eastern
SD, southwestern MN, and vicinity. The steep mid-level lapse rates
present with the EML combined with modest low-level moisture return
ahead of the front should support a narrow corridor of around
500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE by peak afternoon heating.

Strong forcing for ascent associated with the approaching upper
trough will likely encourage convective initiation by late Sunday
afternoon into the evening along the eastward-advancing cold front.
30-40 kt of effective bulk shear will foster organized updrafts,
with the steep mid-level lapse rates perhaps supporting some large
hail with initial convective development. The severe wind threat
should increase by Sunday evening into parts of MN and
western/central IA as storms congeal along the cold front and
quickly grow upscale into a fast moving line. This squall line
should gradually weaken with eastward extent across the Upper
Midwest Sunday night as it outpaces the already modest low-level
moisture return and weak instability. But, it may still pose an
isolated strong/gusty wind risk until the instability becomes too
meager to support surface-based storms. How far east this gusty wind
potential will last Sunday night remains uncertain, so have expanded
the Marginal Risk eastward into more of southeastern MN and
central/eastern IA. Latest guidance also suggests that there is less
potential for low-level moisture return into northern MN, so severe probabilities have been reduced across this area.

...Southeast...
The remnants of Delta are forecast by the National Hurricane Center
to move northeastward from the TN Valley towards the upper OH Valley
on Sunday. The surface low is forecast to remain rather weak through
the period, although a warm front should also advance slowly
northward across the Carolinas through Sunday evening. Around 30-35
kt of mid-level southwesterly flow should be present across parts of
eastern GA into SC/NC in association with Delta's remnant mid-level circulation. NAM forecast soundings across these areas show enough veering/strengthening of the wind profile in low/mid levels to
support modest storm organization. Around 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE
should also be present along/south of the warm front as low-level
moisture gradually increases and surface temperatures warm through
the day. Even so, mid-level lapse rates will remain poor, which
should temper updraft strength to some extent. Regardless, given the
marginal deep-layer shear and sufficient instability forecast,
isolated strong to damaging winds appear possible with any storms
that form either along an eastward-advancing surface trough or the
warm front. A brief tornado also cannot be ruled out, primarily near
the warm front Sunday afternoon/evening, where low-level flow is
forecast to be slightly stronger compared to locations farther
south.

..Gleason.. 10/10/2020

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 111727
SWODY2
SPC AC 111725

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2020

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely across the contiguous
United States on Monday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A negatively tilted upper trough is forecast to extend from central Saskatchewan southeastward into the lower MO Valley early Monday,
before continuing northeastward throughout the day. Relatively
low-amplitude upper flow is anticipated in the wake of this trough,
with moderate to strong north-northwesterly flow extending from the
Pacific Northwest into the Upper Great Lakes by early Tuesday
morning.

At the surface, a cold front associated with the negatively tilted
upper trough will likely stretch from far northwest WI southward
into west-central IL and then back southwestward through the TX Hill
Country early Monday. Gradual eastward/southeastward progression of
this front is anticipated throughout the day, with the front
forecast to extend from western Lake Erie to the middle Rio Grande
Valley by 00Z Tuesday. Predominantly stable conditions are expected
ahead of the front, precluding thunderstorm development. The only
exception is over portions of the Upper Midwest through the Upper
Great Lakes, where cooler mid-level temperatures and strong forcing
for ascent may result in a few storms deep enough to produce
lightning. A few convectively augmented gusts strong enough to
produce damage may occur along the front, but, given the meager
instability, uncertainty on occurrence and coverage remains high.

Isolated thunderstorms are also possible ahead of the remnants of
Delta and amid early period surface cyclogenesis (associated with
the previously mentioned, negatively tilted upper trough) over NC.
Weak wind fields and modest instability should preclude any severe
risk. A few strikes are also possible amid the moist air mass across
southern FL.

..Mosier.. 10/11/2020

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 120532
SWODY2
SPC AC 120530

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2020

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected across the
contiguous United States on Tuesday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A shortwave trough will move northeastward across parts of New
England on Tuesday. A surface low is also forecast to develop
northeastward off the coast. Low-level warm advection is forecast to
occur through the day ahead of the features. Weak but sufficient
MUCAPE should be present to support elevated thunderstorms, mainly
along/near the coast. Instability should remain too weak to support
an organized severe risk across this region.

Farther west, a westerly mid/upper-level jet will advance eastward
over parts of the Pacific Northwest through the period. Cool
mid-level temperatures and ascent associated with this jet may
support meager instability and perhaps isolated, low-topped storms
capable of producing occasional lightning. Even though deep-layer
shear will be strong, severe storms are not expected owing to the
very marginal instability. Otherwise, thunderstorms are not forecast
across the remainder of the CONUS, as dry and/or stable conditions
should generally prevail.

..Gleason.. 10/12/2020

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 131651
SWODY2
SPC AC 131650

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1150 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2020

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are unlikely across the contiguous United States on
Wednesday.

...Synopsis...
A substantial positive-tilt upper trough will move across the
northern Plains toward the Great Lakes Wednesday, with strong winds
aloft and tight midlevel temperature gradient extending westward
across the central Plains and into northern Rockies. At the surface,
low pressure will deepen slightly as it moves from North Dakota
toward lake Superior during the day. A cold front will trail
southwestward from the low into the central Plains, while a dryline
develops over western Texas and southwest Oklahoma.

Given high pressure in place over the eastern states, moisture
return ahead of this system will be meager, with little instability
forecast to support thunderstorms. Dewpoints near 60 F may
eventually reach I-35 in Oklahoma, with a narrow band of 50s F ahead
of the cold front from Kansas into Missouri. However, forecast
soundings indicate capping will exist along the dryline, and most of
the cold front. In addition, midlevel lapse rates will be poor south
of the mid/upper jet.

..Jewell.. 10/13/2020

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ACUS02 KWNS 141709
SWODY2
SPC AC 141708

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1208 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2020

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Minimal thunderstorm activity is forecast across the contiguous
United States on Thursday.

...Synopsis...
A large area of cyclonic flow aloft will encompass much of the
northern Plains, upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes, with a
tight midlevel temperature gradient extending from the northern
Rockies to the mid Mississippi Valley into the northeastern states.
At the surface, low pressure will eject northeastward from eastern
Ontario into western Quebec coincident with a negative-tilt lead
wave, with a cold front roughly from western New York to central
Texas during the afternoon.

Modest levels of low-level moisture will exist ahead of the cold
front from Texas to the lower Mississippi Valley during the day,
with poor lapse rates aloft and little shear. Lift along the cold
front may support isolated, weak thunderstorms across this region,
if the cap can be breached.

Other diurnally driven showers and a few thunderstorms are possible
from southeast Montana into western South Dakota north of the
midlevel jet where lapse rates will be steep and where heating will
occur.

The best instability profiles will be over south Florida, where
heating will combine with increasing moisture out of the southeast
for a few daytime storms. Severe storms are unlikely.

Elsewhere, although a front will push east across Ohio, Pennsylvania
and New York late in the day, forecast soundings indicate only
shallow convection with little if any lightning potential, likely
rendering the strong deep-layer shear ineffective.

..Jewell.. 10/14/2020

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 151705
SWODY2
SPC AC 151703

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1203 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2020

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the contiguous United
States on Friday.

...Discussion...

A few thunderstorms are possible Friday mainly from the eastern
Carolinas as well as south FL in association with a cold front. A
few low-topped thunderstorms might also occur over a portion of the
upper Great Lakes Friday afternoon in association with weak
instability resulting from cold temperatures aloft and ascent
attending a progressive vorticity maximum embedded within a synoptic
upper trough.

..Dial.. 10/15/2020

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ACUS02 KWNS 191721
SWODY2
SPC AC 191719

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1219 PM CDT Mon Oct 19 2020

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected across the continental United States
Tuesday and Tuesday night.

...Discussion...
Broad cyclonic flow aloft will remain in place over the northern
half of the U.S. Tuesday. Within the larger-scale flow, a
pronounced short-wave trough will move from the northern
Intermountain region eastward to the Upper Great Lakes. Elsewhere,
a weak upper disturbance will linger over the Florida vicinity.

At the surface, a quasi-stationary baroclinic zone will remain
generally in place from the southern Plains to the Lower Great Lakes
region, though its position will oscillate some during the period as
the aforementioned upper short-wave trough advances.

In the vicinity of this front, a zone of showers and a occasional,
embedded thunderstorms will persist through the period. Otherwise,
showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected from Florida
northeastward to the eastern Carolinas. However, the environment in
both of these convective regimes will remain largely insufficient to
support more vigorous convection.

..Goss.. 10/19/2020

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ACUS02 KWNS 201726
SWODY2
SPC AC 201724

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1224 PM CDT Tue Oct 20 2020

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
No severe thunderstorms are expected across the continental United
States on Wednesday or Wednesday night.

...Discussion...
Showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected Wednesday, in the
vicinity of a surface baroclinic zone that will oscillate within a
zone from roughly the southern Plains east-northeastward into the
Northeast. The northeastern portion of this boundary will make some
eastward progress with time, as a mid-level short-wave trough shifts
across the Upper Great Lakes region and moves into eastern Canada.
Meanwhile, some northward retreat of the boundary is expected over
the Plains, as a second mid-level short-wave feature digs
southeastward across the Intermountain West.

Other showers and occasional lightning will occur in the vicinity of
the Gulf and Atlantic Coastal regions, from south Texas to the
Carolinas, where a moist low-level airmass will contribute to modest
CAPE.

..Goss.. 10/20/2020

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ACUS02 KWNS 231706
SWODY2
SPC AC 231704

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1204 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2020

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous U.S. on
Saturday.

...Discussion...
Upper troughing/cyclonic flow will persist across much of the U.S.
Saturday, with amplification expected over the West as an embedded
short-wave feature digs southward with time. Farther east, a strong
cold front will continue shifting eastward across the East Coast
states, shifting off the New England and Mid-Atlantic Coasts
overnight but trailing southwestward across the Southeast through
the period.

Showers will likely be ongoing ahead of the front at the start of
the period, from the Lower Great Lakes/western New England
southwestward to the Gulf of Mexico, with scattered/embedded
thunderstorms over the Southeast and into the Gulf. As the front
advances slowly eastward/southeastward, thunderstorm potential will
expand to include areas from Virginia to Florida. However, modest
amounts of CAPE and shear will likely preclude any appreciable risk
for severe weather.

..Goss.. 10/23/2020

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 240514
SWODY2
SPC AC 240512

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1212 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2020

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently forecast across the
contiguous U.S. on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
The upper-air pattern will amplify over the western U.S. on Sunday
as a large-scale trough digs southward into the Colorado River
valley. A broad, strong belt of southwesterly mid-level flow will
extend northeastward from the Desert Southwest through the central
Great Plains and into the Great Lakes. In the low levels, an arctic
cold front will surge southward across a large part of the southern
Great Plains during the period with only a weak low/inverted surface
trough draped northeastward from TX into the Ozark Plateau.

Isolated weak/disorganized thunderstorms are forecast during the day
on Sunday across parts of FL and parts of the southern Appalachians.
The risk for showers and a few post-frontal/elevated thunderstorms
will increase Sunday night across the southern Great Plains as a
40-kt southerly LLJ develops. Weak instability will likely preclude
severe thunderstorms from developing with the late-night activity.

..Smith.. 10/24/2020

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ACUS02 KWNS 250520
SWODY2
SPC AC 250519

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1219 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2020

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Monday across the
contiguous United States.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough located initially over UT will evolve into a
closed mid-level low and move south into southern AZ during the
period. Meanwhile, a mid-level anticyclone will reside over FL. In
the low levels, a prominent surface high over the central High
Plains will favor a cold front pushing south through central TX and
the TX Hill Country. Weak elevated instability is forecast north of
the surface front where the risk for isolated thunderstorms will
extend from the Edwards Plateau of TX, north and northeastward into
the Ozark Plateau. Isolated to widely scattered diurnal
thunderstorms are possible across the FL Peninsula.

..Smith.. 10/25/2020

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ACUS02 KWNS 261717
SWODY2
SPC AC 261715

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1215 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the contiguous United
States on Tuesday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A closed upper low over AZ/NM and adjacent northern Mexico is
forecast to move slowly eastward towards the southern High Plains on
Tuesday. Large-scale ascent preceding this feature will overspread
parts of the southern Plains through the period. Even though much of
this region will be to the north of a cold front, weak elevated
instability may still develop as mid-level temperatures gradually
decrease with the approach of the upper trough. Isolated
thunderstorms may occur in this regime. Farther south, substantial
low-level moisture will remain confined to parts of coastal TX and
the Southeast. Occasional storms may also occur across these regions
though the day, but generally weak low/mid-winds should limit both
deep-layer shear and organized severe thunderstorm potential. The
enhanced low-level wind field associated with Tropical Cyclone Zeta,
forecast by the National Hurricane Center to move northwestward to
northward across the central Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, is not
expected to overspread portions of the central Gulf Coast until
after the end of the Day 2 period.

..Gleason.. 10/26/2020

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ACUS02 KWNS 271724
SWODY2
SPC AC 271722

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1222 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2020

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few tornadoes are expected from late in the day Wednesday through
Thursday morning over parts of the central Gulf Coast states in
association with Zeta.

...Gulf Coast from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle...
Zeta is forecast to make landfall late in the day on Wednesday over
southeast Louisiana, and will weaken as it moves toward northwest
Georgia by Thursday morning.

Preceding landfall, southeasterly low-level winds will maintain 70s
F dewpoints across southern Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and the
Florida Panhandle. MUCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg will develop, and
isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out during the day over
southern Mississippi and southeast Louisiana. Shear at this time
will be marginal for any severe threat, but weak rotation will be
possible with any cells.

A rapid increase in low-level shear resulting in large, looping
hodographs will occur after 00Z along and east of the center track.
SBCAPE may only be a few hundred J/kg near the center due to warming
aloft, but strong lift and very strong shear immediately east of the
center track may lead to rotating storms and a couple tornadoes.

Between 06-12Z Thursday morning, continued low-level theta-e
advection, convergence extending southward into the northern Gulf
and favorable shear may support a line of supercells from southern
Alabama into the Florida Panhandle where 0-1 SRH is expected to
exceed 400 m2/s2. This will support a tornado threat as well, before
winds rapidly veer with the passage of Zeta to the north.

..Jewell.. 10/27/2020

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ACUS02 KWNS 281710
SWODY2
SPC AC 281709

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1209 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe gusts and a conditional risk for a tornado may exist
Thursday from the Florida Panhandle into North Carolina and southern
Virginia in association with tropical cyclone Zeta.

...Southeast and Mid Atlantic...
The surface low associated with Zeta is expected to be over far
eastern TN Thursday morning, and will move rapidly east toward the
Delmarva by 00Z. Warm advection and strengthening shear will occur
over the Carolinas during the day, where dewpoints 68-70 F dewpoints
will contribute to a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE. Areas just south and
east of the low track, along the southern periphery of the heavier precipitation appears to have the greatest chance of an isolated
tornado or damaging wind gust during the day.

Southwest of this low, heating will occur over SC and GA, but
low-level winds will veer, reducing shear. Still, strong deep-layer
shear and mean wind speeds will conditionally favor strong to severe
gusts, though poor lapse rates aloft may mitigate more widespread
potential.

A somewhat better chance of isolated severe storms may exist
Thursday night as large-scale ascent with a shortwave trough
increases. The primary risk area for this time frame will be eastern
NC, where low-level moisture may remain ahead of a secondary surface
low. This threat is expected after 06Z, and isolated strong gusts or
a tornado will be possible.

..Jewell.. 10/28/2020

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ACUS02 KWNS 291702
SWODY2
SPC AC 291701

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1201 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2020

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Only a few weak thunderstorms are possible over southern Florida on
Friday.

...Synopsis...
As a large upper trough lifts across the Great Lakes and Northeast,
high pressure will encompass the eastern CONUS with offshore flow
over the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic. This will shunt any
appreciable low-level moisture mostly offshore, the exception being
far southern Florida where 70s F dewpoints will remain. Here,
daytime heating and weak convergence may lead to an isolated
thunderstorm or two during the afternoon.

Elsewhere, a shortwave trough will drop east/southeast across the
Pacific Northwest and into the northern High Plains by Saturday
morning resulting in lift, but little if any instability will be
present for lightning.

..Jewell.. 10/29/2020

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ACUS02 KWNS 310600
SWODY2
SPC AC 310559

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2020

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA INTO FAR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible over eastern North
Carolina and far southeast Virginia on Sunday.

...NC northward to southeast coastal NJ...
An intense and amplifying mid-level trough will evolve into a closed
500 mb low as it moves from the Great Lakes on Sunday morning to the
Northeast by early Monday morning. In the low levels, a surface low
initially over northeast Ontario will consolidate with a surface low
developing off the NJ coast and a strong surface cyclone is forecast
over the Gulf of Maine/coastal Maine late Sunday night.

During the morning to midday hours, the strengthening surface trough
over the Mid-Atlantic states will aid in intensifying low-level flow
and the northward transport of mid-upper 50s F dewpoints into the
Delmarva and lower 60s in eastern NC. Strong differential advection
via cooling aloft in the mid levels and moistening in the low
levels, will result in a destabilizing boundary layer by early
afternoon. Operational suite of models are generally showing the
development of 500 J/kg SBCAPE over eastern NC with 100-200 J/kg
MUCAPE as far north as the southern half of NJ. Forecast soundings
show very strong low-level shear and enlarged hodographs over the
narrow warm sector near the immediate coast. Strong mid-level
height falls (90-150 m per 12 hr) are expected to overspread the
VA/NC warm sector during the day. Given the above mentioned
factors, it seems plausible a forced convective line will evolve
over the Mid-Atlantic states. The risk for isolated strong to
severe gusts may accompany this convective line before moving off
the coast by early evening. Farther south over eastern NC, a
supercell threat could evolve near the immediate coast with an
attendant isolated wind/tornado hazard.

Elsewhere, dry/stable conditions will generally prevail across much
of the remainder of the contiguous United States.

..Smith.. 10/31/2020

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ACUS02 KWNS 010513
SWODY2
SPC AC 010512

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1212 AM CDT Sun Nov 01 2020

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United
States on Monday.

...Synopsis...
A large-scale trough over the East Coast will move into the western
Atlantic while a ridge is located over the Rockies and adjacent High
Plains. A weak mid-level trough will be located over southern CA
and displaced from the stronger westerlies confined to near the
Canadian border. A few weak thunderstorms may develop during the
day centered over southern NV. Elsewhere, relatively dry/stable
conditions will prevail and preclude thunderstorm development.

..Smith.. 11/01/2020

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ACUS02 KWNS 011731
SWODY2
SPC AC 011729

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CST Sun Nov 01 2020

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United
States on Monday.

...Discussion...
A slowly progressive upper flow pattern is forecast over the U.S.
Monday, as an eastern U.S. trough moves into the western Atlantic
and Canadian Maritimes, while ridging persists over much of the
western and into the central portion of the country. With time, the
western ridge is expected to deamplify however, as a weak upper low
moves across California and into Nevada, and a short-wave trough
embedded in the northern stream approaches the Pacific Northwest
later in the period.

With surface high pressure -- and associated dry/stable air --
prevailing over much of the country in the wake of strong eastern
U.S. cold-frontal passage, little risk for thunderstorms is evident.
One exception will be over a portion over the Desert
Southwest/lower Colorado River Valley area. Here, relatively steep
lapse rates aloft combined with weak large-scale ascent associated
with the aforementioned upper low may result in a few lightning
flashes emanating from high-based updrafts -- particularly during
the afternoon hours. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected
across the remainder of the country.

..Goss.. 11/01/2020

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ACUS02 KWNS 021723
SWODY2
SPC AC 021722

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1122 AM CST Mon Nov 02 2020

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the United States on
Tuesday.

...Discussion...
Large-scale upper flow over the U.S. is forecast to trend more zonal
with time Tuesday, as the large eastern U.S. trough gradually
departs, leaving lower-amplitude westerly flow in its wake. A weak
upper low over the California vicinity early Tuesday is forecast to
advance eastward across the Great Basin/Four Corners states while
short-wave troughing embedded in fast westerly flow shifts across
the northwestern states. At the surface, aside from lee troughing
over the Plains, high pressure will largely prevail.

Given the dry/stable airmass covering most of the country, little
thunder potential is evident. A few lightning flashes will be
possible, embedded within low-topped convective precipitation,
across the Four Corners states, as the aforementioned upper low --
and associated cold air aloft/steep lapse rates -- spread across
this region. Elsewhere, aside from a possible stray flash over the
coastal Pacific Northwest as short-wave upper troughing shifts
inland, thunderstorms are not expected.

..Goss.. 11/02/2020

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ACUS02 KWNS 030540
SWODY2
SPC AC 030538

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1138 PM CST Mon Nov 02 2020

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the contiguous United
States on Wednesday.

...South FL...

High pressure now situated over the Southeast States will gradually
shift northeast and off the Atlantic Seaboard later Wednesday.
Low-level winds will gradually veer to easterly across south FL
during the afternoon with gradual boundary-layer moistening
overnight. As dewpoints increase to near 70F, instability will
become sufficient for a few thunderstorms within a more general area
of showers.

..Dial.. 11/03/2020

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ACUS02 KWNS 031720
SWODY2
SPC AC 031719

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1119 AM CST Tue Nov 03 2020

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the contiguous United
States on Wednesday.

...Synopsis...
Shortwave trough currently moving towards the Four Corners region is
expected to continue eastward into the central/southern Plains on
Wednesday. Some shallow moisture return is possible across TX ahead
of this shortwave, but stable conditions are expected to dominate,
precluding thunderstorm development. Surface high pressure will
remain in place across much of eastern CONUS, with resulting stable
conditions prevailing. The only potential for thunderstorms appears
to be a across far southern FL and the FL Keys, where persistent
easterly flow and the approach of a weak tropical wave will allow
for low-level moistening and modest ascent needed for isolated
thunderstorms.

..Mosier.. 11/03/2020

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ACUS02 KWNS 041648
SWODY2
SPC AC 041646

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1046 AM CST Wed Nov 04 2020

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the contiguous U.S. on
Thursday.

...Southern FL to Coastal Carolinas...

Low level easterly flow will maintain abundant moisture across the
FL peninsula on Thursday, while also spreading higher dewpoints
westward toward the immediate coastal areas of the Carolinas. Warm
temperatures will allow for modest instability, and isolated
thunderstorms are expected mainly across southern FL, though a few
lightning flashes are possible along the immediate coast northeast
through the Carolinas. Severe storms are not expected.

...Pacific Northwest...

A shortwave trough is forecast to amplify off the Pacific Northwest
coast and move inland Thursday night. Steeper midlevel lapse rates
resulting from cold air aloft accompanying this feature will
contribute to weak instability near the coast, where a few
thunderstorms could move onshore during the overnight.

..Leitman.. 11/04/2020

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ACUS02 KWNS 051724
SWODY2
SPC AC 051722

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1122 AM CST Thu Nov 05 2020

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. mainland on
Friday.

...Discussion...
A high-amplitude, slowly progressive upper flow field is progged
over the U.S. for Friday, as an upper low digs southward across
California, resulting in expansion of cyclonic flow to encompass the
entirety of the West. Farther east, ridging will prevail, though a weak/complex disturbance over the Texas/Louisiana vicinity will
drift slowly eastward.

At the surface, high pressure will prevail over the southern and
eastern states. In the West, a cold frontal advance across
California and Nevada is expected with time, while a baroclinic zone
shifts slowly southward across the Intermountain region and northern
Plains.

As the upper low advances southeastward near the West Coast, cool
air aloft/steep mid-level lapse rates may promote occasional
lightning flashes near coastal regions of northern and central
California. Occasional lighting may also occur from the central
Gulf Coast region to the southern Atlantic Coast within
westward-moving convection through the period.

..Goss.. 11/05/2020

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ACUS02 KWNS 061710
SWODY2
SPC AC 061708

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1108 AM CST Fri Nov 06 2020

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
No severe thunderstorms are expected across the continental United
States on Saturday.

...Discussion...
A highly amplified flow field aloft will persist over the U.S. this
weekend. An upper low -- initially situated over the CA/NV vicinity
Saturday morning, is forecast to evolve into an open wave while
moving eastward across the Great Basin/Four Corners states through
the period. Meanwhile, a new closed low -- still within the
broader/highly amplified cyclonic flow field -- is forecast to
evolve over the OR/NV vicinity as short-wave troughing digs
southward out of western Canada.

While cyclonic flow expands to cover the western half of the
country, ridging will persist in the east. Within the broader ridge
however, a weak low centered over the north-central Gulf/southern
Louisiana area will linger, while farther to the southeast, tropical
system Eta is expected to shift northward into Cuba early Sunday
morning.

Showers and local/embedded thunderstorms are forecast to evolve
across portion of the Intermountain West Saturday afternoon, and
continuing through the period, as a strong cold front -- associated
with the upper troughing -- advances eastward. Very strong flow
aloft will support strong/gusty gradient winds, especially at higher elevations. While a forced/broken frontal band of convection may
evolve across portions of the Four Corners states during the
afternoon and evening, it remains unclear that any severe-level
convectively enhanced gusts will occur due to meager instability.
As such, no convective wind probabilities will be included in the
outlook at this time.

Scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms are also expected
across portions of the southern Atlantic and Gulf Coast regions.
However, weak instability should preclude any appreciable severe
weather risk.

..Goss.. 11/06/2020

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ACUS02 KWNS 070701
SWODY2
SPC AC 070700

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CST Sat Nov 07 2020

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA...

...SUMMARY...
A marginal tornado threat is expected to develop Sunday night across
south Florida as Tropical Storm Eta approaches.

...South Florida...
The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Tropical Depression Eta
to become a tropical storm and move northward across Cuba on Sunday.
The outer rainbands of Eta are forecast to move northward into
southern Florida near Miami by Sunday evening. As the center of Eta
approaches south Florida Sunday night, low-level winds will steadily
increase. NAM forecast soundings from 06Z to 12Z on Monday for Miami
show winds near 50 kt at 1000 feet above ground level. As a result,
0-1 km shear is forecast to increase to near 40 kt late Sunday night
which should support a marginal tornado risk. Cells that remain
semi-discrete and move inland into the Florida Keys will have
potential to rotate and could be associated with an isolated tornado
threat. For these reasons, a marginal risk area has been added in
parts of south Florida for this outlook.

..Broyles.. 11/07/2020

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ACUS02 KWNS 071732
SWODY2
SPC AC 071730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CST Sat Nov 07 2020

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
FLORIDA...

...SUMMARY...
A tornado threat may exist Sunday night across southern Florida as
Tropical Storm Eta approaches.

...Southern Florida...
Tropical Storm Eta is expected to continue northeastward today
before curving more to the northwest on Sunday as it approaches
southern Florida. Reference the National Hurricane Center for the
latest forecast details. With the approach of Eta on Sunday,
low-level moistening will occur in tandem with a steadily
strengthening low-level wind field, particularly late Sunday
afternoon and Sunday night. Although thermodynamic details are a bit
uncertain particularly with north-northwestward extent, favorable supercell-favorable low-level shear/SRH is forecast to coincide with moist/modestly unstable air particularly across the Florida
Straits/Upper Keys into the south/southeast Florida Peninsula by
Sunday night. The potential for rotating cells is expected to
account for at least some tornado risk.

..Guyer.. 11/07/2020

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ACUS02 KWNS 080700
SWODY2
SPC AC 080659

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CST Sun Nov 08 2020

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN OZARKS AND IN VICINITY OF THE
FLORIDA KEYS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with hail and strong wind gusts will be
possible on Monday from parts of the southern Plains into the mid
Missouri Valley. A marginal tornado threat will be possible early in
the period across south Florida and the Florida Keys.

...Southern Plains/Western Ozarks...
An upper-level trough will dig southeastward into the Four Corners
region on Monday as southwest mid-level flow remains established
across the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a
cold front will advance quickly southeastward into the mid Missouri
Valley and central Plains on Monday. Ahead of the front, moisture
advection will take place as surface dewpoints gradually increase
into the upper 50s and lower 60s F from west-central Oklahoma
northeastward into north-central Missouri. In spite of the moisture, instability will remain weak ahead of the front due to abundant
cloud cover and cool surface temperatures. For this reason,
convective initiation is expected to hold off until evening when a
band of strong large-scale ascent approaches from the west.
Thunderstorm development is expected to take place during the mid to
late evening from northwest Missouri southwestward into central and
western Oklahoma. NAM forecast soundings from 06Z to 09Z Tuesday
from Wichita, KS to Clinton, OK have MUCAPE reaching the 500 to 800
J/kg range with 60 to 70 kt of deep-layer shear. This combined with
steep mid-level lapse rates may be enough for marginal hail threat.
A few strong wind gusts can not be ruled out as well. Thunderstorms
are expected to develop along and just ahead of the front, moving
eastward into eastern Oklahoma and western Missouri during the late
night period.

...South Florida and the Florida Keys...
The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Tropical Storm Eta to
be located over the Florida Keys at daybreak on Monday and then to
move westward into the eastern Gulf of Mexico during the day.
Rainbands associated with Eta should be located across south Florida
Monday morning. Model forecast suggest that a band of strong
low-level winds will exist across the Florida Keys around 12Z on
Monday. Forecast soundings at that time at Key Biscayne have 0-1 km
shear from 30 to 35 kt with MUCAPE near 1200 J/kg. This should be
adequate for a tornado threat mainly from 12Z to 18Z, before
low-level shear begins to weaken across south Florida. Rotating
cells that remain semi-discrete will have tornado potential, but the
threat is expected to remain very isolated.

..Broyles.. 11/08/2020

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ACUS02 KWNS 081732
SWODY2
SPC AC 081730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CST Sun Nov 08 2020

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
FLORIDA AND THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
A tornado risk will exist across South Florida and the Florida Keys
on Monday. A few thunderstorms capable of hail and strong wind gusts
will be possible across the south-central Plains Monday evening into
the overnight.

...South Florida and the Florida Keys...
Current Tropical Storm Eta is expected to further intensify as it
approaches the Florida Keys late tonight and early Monday. Reference
the National Hurricane Center for the latest forecast details.
Eta-periphery low-level winds will likely be maximized across the
Florida Keys and South Florida early Monday. Some questions remain
regarding the exact degree of destabilization particularly away from
the coast and with northward extent across the Florida Peninsula,
with the greatest overlap of low-level shear/SRH and buoyancy
expected across the Florida Keys and far southern Florida Peninsula.
Some potential for a couple of tornadoes will exist particularly in
these areas during the morning and possibly into the afternoon,
before likely diminishing by Monday night.

...South-Central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley...
An upper-level trough will amplify and carve southeastward over the
northern Plains and from the Four Corners area toward the
central/southern Plains Monday and Monday night. An associated cold
front will advance east/southeastward across the Upper Midwest and a
broad portion of the central/southern Plains. A modest influx of
low-level moisture will occur in advance of the front. It appears
that steepening mid-level lapse rates and sufficient low-level moisture/buoyancy may become sufficient for some stronger storms by
Monday evening, mainly across southern/eastern Kansas and northern
Oklahoma. Marginally severe hail and gusty thunderstorms winds will
be a possibility as storms increase across the region Monday evening
into the overnight.

..Guyer.. 11/08/2020

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ACUS02 KWNS 090653
SWODY2
SPC AC 090652

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CST Mon Nov 09 2020

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OZARKS AND MID TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with strong wind gusts and hail will be
possible on Tuesday across parts of the Ozarks and mid to upper
Mississippi Valley.

...Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley...
An upper-level trough will move quickly northeastward on Tuesday
from the Great Plains into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. At
the surface, a cold front will advance east-southeastward across the
mid to upper Mississippi Valley. A line of thunderstorms is forecast
to be ongoing along the front from eastern Iowa south-southwestward
into western Missouri at the start of the period. As the upper-level
trough approaches from the southwest, strong large-scale ascent will
sustain the line during the day as it moves eastward across the mid
to upper Mississippi Valley. Ahead of this line, surface dewpoints
in the lower to mid 60s F will contribute to weak instability by
afternoon.

Model forecasts over the last couple of runs have substantially
increased forecast instability across the mid to upper Mississippi
Valley. Current model solutions suggest that SBCAPE could peak in
the 400 to 600 J/kg range in the afternoon from eastern Missouri
into north-central Illinois. This combined with strong deep-layer
shear of 60 to 70 kt, evident on forecast soundings, should support
a marginal severe threat along the leading edge of the line. Strong
wind gusts and hail will be possible with the more intense parts of
the line. The line of storms is forecast to reach eastern Illinois
and southern Lake Michigan by early evening.

..Broyles.. 11/09/2020

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ACUS02 KWNS 101728
SWODY2
SPC AC 101726

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1126 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2020

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely across the contiguous
United States on Wednesday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A shortwave trough initially over the Great Lakes and Ontario is
forecast to quickly shift northeastward into Quebec on Wednesday. A
surface low attendant to the shortwave trough is also expected to
develop northeastward across Quebec, with a trailing cold front
making slow east-southeastward progress across the eastern CONUS
through the period. An unseasonably moist low-level airmass,
characterized by mid 60s to low 70s surface dewpoints, should be
present ahead of the front from parts of the Mid-Atlantic into the
Southeast. Even so, poor lapse rates and modest diurnal heating will
likely limit instability through Wednesday afternoon across these
regions. The stronger mid-level southwesterly flow associated with
the shortwave trough should also remain generally displaced to the
north of greater low-level moisture. This will limit deep-layer
shear across the warm sector, especially with southward extent
across the Southeast. Although very isolated instances of
strong/gusty winds cannot be entirely ruled out with storms that
develop along/ahead of the cold front, the overall severe threat
across the Mid-Atlantic/Southeast appears too low to include any
severe probabilities for wind at this time.

Farther south, Tropical Storm Eta should continue northward over the
eastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday according to the latest NHC
forecast. Some guidance suggests the low-level wind field with Eta
will expand on Wednesday, possibly encompassing parts of the FL Gulf
Coast. At this point, it appears that the potential for isolated
strong/gusty winds associated with low-topped storms embedded in
outer rain bands will probably remain offshore.

..Gleason.. 11/10/2020

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ACUS02 KWNS 111714
SWODY2
SPC AC 111712

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1112 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2020

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
SC THROUGH EASTERN NC...

...SUMMARY...
An isolated strong to severe storm is possible from northeast South
Carolina through eastern North Carolina Thursday afternoon.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A progressive, broadly cyclonic upper pattern is forecast over the
CONUS on Thursday. Eastward progression of a shortwave trough is
anticipated through the Plains and Upper/Mid MS Valley, with
eastward expansion of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft across the
much of eastern CONUS. This increased vertical shear will result in
a weakening of Tropical Cyclone Eta, which is forecast to begin the
period centered about 35 miles west-southwest of OCF along the
west-central FL coast. Strong low- to mid-level winds will be in
place Thursday morning throughout the eastern periphery of the
cyclone, before weakening during the day as the overall system
weakens. Despite kinematic profiles that would support rotating
storms, weak lapse rates associated with deep warm and moist air
mass surrounding the storm will hamper the development of strong,
persistent updrafts. Limited updraft depth and persistence should
keep the potential for any low-topped supercells very low.

Farther north into the Carolinas, numerous showers and thunderstorms
are anticipated as a slow-moving front interacts with low-level
moisture associated with Eta. The overall thermodynamic profile is
not expected to be as warm and moist as those closer to the cyclone, contributing to the potential for modest instability. Additionally, strengthening mid-level flow atop southerly (and perhaps even
southeasterly) low-level winds will result in enough low-level
vertical shear to support an organized storm or two. Storm mode is
generally expected to be linear but occasionally more discrete cells
ahead of the front could result in damaging wind gusts or two, or
maybe even a brief tornado.

..Mosier.. 11/11/2020

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ACUS02 KWNS 121709
SWODY2
SPC AC 121707

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1107 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2020

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected Friday or Friday night.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Progressive upper pattern is expected to gradually amplify on
Friday, as one shortwave trough moves quickly through the Northeast
and another pair of shortwave troughs move across the western CONUS. Northernmost of the two western CONUS shortwaves is forecast to move
through the Pacific Northwest and into the northern Great Basin,
while the southern shortwave moves through the Southwest into the
southern Plains.

At the surface, high pressure initially centered over the central
Plains and mid MS Valley is expected to shift quickly northeastward
as lee troughing develops over the High Plains ahead of the western
CONUS shortwaves. Given this early day position of the surface high
pressure, more favorable low-level moisture (i.e. low to mid 60s
dewpoints) will remain over central/southern TX and the FL Peninsula
for much of the day. However, the deepening lee trough and
associated tightening of the surface pressure gradient combined with
a strengthening low-level jet will help advect moisture northward
Friday evening and overnight. As a result, low 60s dewpoints may
reach as far as the TX/OK border by early Saturday morning. Some
isolated elevated thunderstorms (rooted around 850 to 800 mb) are
also possible within this warm-air advection regime. Limited
buoyancy is forecast to keep any severe potential very low.

Isolated lightning is also possible across coastal portions of the
Pacific Northwest as the frontal band attendant to the shortwave
trough progressing over the region moves through Friday afternoon. A
few post-frontal strikes are possible as well.

..Mosier.. 11/12/2020

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ACUS02 KWNS 131733
SWODY2
SPC AC 131732

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1132 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2020

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR NORTHEAST
OK ACROSS NORTHWEST AR INTO SOUTHERN MO...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur across eastern Oklahoma and
the Ozarks/Ark-La-Tex regions late Saturday afternoon and night.

...Synopsis...
A deep shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly across the
Plains and into the Upper/Middle MS Valley on Saturday. This
shortwave will be accompanied by a strong (i.e. 100 kt at 500 mb)
jet, which will likely extend from eastern KS through the middle MS
and southern OH Valleys, and into the Lower Great Lakes region early
Sunday morning.

Surface cyclogenesis is anticipated ahead of this shortwave and
attendant jet streak. The resulting low is forecast to develop over
the mid MO Valley before then tracking quickly northeastward through
the Upper Midwest. An associated cold front will sweep
eastward/southeastward. By 00Z Sunday, this front will likely extend
from the low over central IA southwestward through western MO and
eastern OK. By 12Z Sunday, consensus of the guidance places the
front from Lower MI south-southwestward into western TN and then
back southwestward across the Lower MS Valley into the TX Hill
Country.

...Eastern Oklahoma/Ozarks/ArkLaTex...
Modest low-level moisture advection will be underway across the
southern Plains at the beginning of the period. Southwesterly
low-level flow will persist throughout the day from the southern
Plains into the Mid MS Valley, contributing to continued moisture
advection and the potential low 60s dewpoints into the Ozark Plateau
ahead of the front. Current observations place the low 60s dewpoints
in central TX, under north winds and weak cold advection. Early day
showers and cloudiness are also expected from northeast OK into
southern MO. As a result, there is some uncertainty whether low 60s
dewpoints will actually be able to advect as far north as the models
suggest.

Whether or not this is enough low-level moisture to support severe thunderstorms will also depend on the amount of heating the area
receives. Current consensus within the guidance is for overcast
conditions to hamper daytime heating, keeping temperatures in the
low 60s (perhaps even upper 50s across northwest AR and southern
MO). Given the resulting convective inhibition associated with those
surface temperatures, updrafts would likely struggle to maintain
depth and consistency, limiting the overall severe potential.

In contrast to the marginal thermodynamics, kinematic fields are
very supportive of organized storm structures with notable low-level
curvature and long hodographs. Any updrafts that are able to
maintain depth and consistency would likely pose a risk for damaging
wind gusts and tornadoes. The overall scenario is conditional on destabilization but the strength of the wind fields merit upgrading
to a 5% tornado/15% wind Slight Risk.

..Mosier.. 11/13/2020

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ACUS02 KWNS 140530
SWODY2
SPC AC 140528

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2020

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The threat for thunderstorms is expected to remain low across the
Ohio Valley and southern New England Sunday into Sunday night,
though gusty winds will be possible with shallow convection.

...OH Valley to southern New England...
A midlevel shortwave trough will reach peak amplitude and will move
quickly eastward over the OH Valley Sunday and New England Sunday
night. A deep, associated surface cyclone over the upper Great
Lakes at the beginning of the period will develop northeastward
across parts of ON/QC, while a trailing cold front moves quickly
eastward. This front will focus shallow convection and some low-end
potential for lightning flashes.

Low-level moisture return into the OH Valley will be substantially
more limited compared to areas farther southwest on Saturday.
Boundary-layer dewpoints should be confined to the mid-upper 40s by
midday across the upper OH Valley, immediately in advance of the
front. Shallow buoyancy is expected along the cold front as
low-level lapse rates steepen with modest surface heating and
cooling above the surface. The depth of the buoyancy will be
questionable for charge separation and lightning production with
bands of shallow convection focused in the zone of ascent along the
front during the day across OH/PA/NY. A corridor of low-level
moistening from the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England should
help maintain weak buoyancy rooted near or just above the ground
into early Sunday night across southern New England. Though the
potential for lightning will remain limited, there is a small chance
of strong/damaging gusts driven by the shallow convection given
SBCAPE of 100-200 J/kg and 50-60 kt flow in the lowest 2 km above
ground level. Thus, will maintain a general thunderstorm area and
will continue to re-evaluate the potential for strong convective
gusts with shallow convection in later updates.

...Elsewhere...
Pre-frontal destabilization will be sufficient for isolated
thunderstorms along a cold front during the afternoon across deep
South TX. Rain showers will be possible across central FL, though
any convection here will be limited by a pronounced midlevel
inversion.

..Thompson.. 11/14/2020

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ACUS02 KWNS 141730
SWODY2
SPC AC 141728

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2020

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The threat for thunderstorms is expected to remain fairly low across
parts of the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and southern New England
Sunday into Sunday night, though strong/gusty winds may still occur
with shallow convection.

...Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Southern New England...
A shortwave trough is forecast to progress eastward across the OH
Valley, Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and New England on Sunday. A deep
surface low associated with this shortwave trough should develop
northeastward into Ontario/Quebec through the period. A trailing
cold front will sweep quickly eastward across parts of the OH
Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and New England through Sunday evening.

Limited low-level moisture return should occur ahead of the front,
with low 50s surface dewpoints possibly extending into parts of
southern NY/New England by late Sunday afternoon. Poor mid-level
lapse rates and modest diurnal heating owing to widespread
cloudiness are generally expected to limit instability through the
day. Consensus of latest guidance suggests that no more than 100-200
J/kg of surface-based instability may develop ahead of the front by
peak afternoon heating, mainly from parts of eastern PA into NJ, MD,
northern VA, and the Delmarva Peninsula. With that said, the low to
mid-level flow field is expected to be quite strong, with 50-60+ kt
of south-southwesterly winds present only 1-2 km above the surface.
Latest convection-allowing model guidance is in general agreement
that a shallow convective line will develop along the front and
quickly advance eastward across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and
perhaps southern New England through early Sunday evening. It is
possible that strong/gusty winds may reach the surface across these
regions through convective downdraft processes, even through the
convection may remain too shallow to support lightning flashes. Low probabilities for severe/damaging wind gusts may need to be
introduced in a later outlook if confidence increases in sufficient
instability being realized.

..Gleason.. 11/14/2020

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ACUS02 KWNS 150626
SWODY2
SPC AC 150624

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1224 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2020

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected Monday and Monday night.

...Synopsis...
A very limited potential for deep convection will exist on Monday as
an amplified large-scale pattern will prevail over the CONUS.
Trough-related cyclonically curved westerlies will exist over the
Eastern States, while an upper ridge builds over the Rockies in
advance of a shortwave trough approaching the Pacific Northwest
early Tuesday.

The potential for thunderstorms should be relegated to
central/southern Florida and nearby waters as a cold front
progresses southward across the region. Thermodynamic profiles do
not appear overly conducive for lightning generation given poor
mid-level lapse rates, but may be sufficient for a few thunderstorms particularly during the daylight hours. Severe thunderstorms are not
expected.

..Guyer.. 11/15/2020

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ACUS02 KWNS 161711
SWODY2
SPC AC 161709

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1109 AM CST Mon Nov 16 2020

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are possible to the west of the Washington and
Oregon Cascades Tuesday afternoon and evening. Otherwise, the risk
for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the U.S.

...Synopsis...
Much of the U.S. will remain under the influence of an amplified
branch of westerlies emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific through
this period. While lead large-scale mid/upper troughing continues
to gradually shift east of the Atlantic Seaboard, large-scale
ridging appears likely to prevail and expand eastward across the
remainder of the interior U.S., ahead of large-scale troughing
across the eastern Pacific into the Pacific Coast states.

One short wave perturbation emanating from the western troughing may
progress toward the crest of the downstream ridging and contribute
to significant cyclogenesis to the lee of the Canadian Rockies late
Tuesday through Tuesday night. Deepening surface troughing appears
likely as far south as the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandle region.
However, the southwestern flank of cold surface ridging shifting
across and east of the lower Great Plains and Mississippi Valley
will remain prominent across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and
Gulf Coast region. The will preclude substantive Gulf
boundary-layer recovery and southerly inland return flow in the wake
of the recent cold intrusion.

...South Florida...
The boundary layer may remain seasonably moist across southeastern
portions of the peninsula and Florida Keys through much of the day
Tuesday, possibly contributing to weak to moderate CAPE with daytime
heating. However, a remnant mid-level cyclonic shear axis
progressing across the region may be in the process of weakening.
Coupled with inhibition associated with relatively warm mid-level
temperatures, probabilities for thunderstorms appear generally low
and mostly confined to areas offshore of southeastern coastal areas/
southeast of the Keys.

...Pacific Northwest...
The extent to which thermodynamic profiles will become conducive to
charge separation remain unclear, with the mid-level cold core of
the larger-scale troughing remaining mostly offshore through this
period. However, models do indicate a swath of mid-level cooling
(including 500 mb temps of -24 to -26 C) across coastal areas into
the southern Washington/northern Oregon Cascades late Tuesday
afternoon and evening, coincident with a belt of modest
southwesterly onshore/upslope low-level flow. This seems to offer
the best potential for scattered thunderstorm activity, and could
become focused around the Greater Portland OR area.

..Kerr.. 11/16/2020

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ACUS02 KWNS 171709
SWODY2
SPC AC 171707

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1107 AM CST Tue Nov 17 2020

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday or Wednesday
night.

...Synopsis...
A progressive, but relatively low amplitude upper pattern is
anticipated across the CONUS on Wednesday. A shortwave trough is
forecast to begin the period just off the Northeast coast, before
quickly progressing northeastward. In the wake of this shortwave,
modest upper ridging is expected to move from the northern/central
Plains through the Upper MS Valley and Upper Great Lakes. Farther
west, a series of shortwave troughs will move across the Pacific
Northwest and northern Intermountain West. The lead wave in this
series will likely move through the northern Plains early Thursday
morning as the most substantial wave in the series moves into the
coastal Pacific Northwest.

At the surface, expansive high pressure over much of the eastern
CONUS early Wednesday is forecast to gradually shift eastward as
troughing associated with lead Pacific Northwest shortwave deepens
and shifts eastward across the northern/central Plains into the
Upper Midwest.

Short wavelength between shortwave troughs will limit the duration
of southerly return flow, keeping areas across the central and
eastern CONUS too stable for thunderstorms. Cold mid-level
temperatures atop moist onshore flow will result in modest
instability along the Pacific Northwest coast, supporting the
potential for isolated lightning flashes, particularly early
Wednesday morning and late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning as
shortwave troughs move through the area. Given the cold mid-level
temperatures, small, sub-severe hail is possible with some of the
stronger, more persistent cells. Very isolated (i.e. less than 10%
coverage) lightning flashes may also occur across eastern OR/WA into
ID late Wednesday afternoon/evening as the initial shortwave trough
moves through.

..Mosier.. 11/17/2020

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ACUS02 KWNS 181651
SWODY2
SPC AC 181650

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1050 AM CST Wed Nov 18 2020

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Aside from portions of the Pacific Northwest coast vicinity, the
risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the U.S.
Thursday through Thursday night.

...Synopsis...
Models indicate that the westerlies will trend less amplified across
the Pacific coast through the Atlantic Seaboard during this period.
Persistent large-scale mid-level troughing near the British
Columbia/Pacific Northwest coast is forecast to break down, with
perhaps the most significant remnant perturbation accelerating east
of the northern Rockies through northwestern Ontario and the upper
Great Lakes region by 12Z Friday. Downstream large-scale troughing
appears likely to gradually recede to higher latitudes while
continuing to shift away from the Atlantic coast.

In lower levels, however, the southwestern flank of cold surface
ridging has maintained a considerable influence across much of the
Gulf of Mexico and Gulf Coast/Southeast vicinity. Models suggest
that boundary-layer recovery over the Gulf of Mexico, and the
development of a southerly inland return flow, will continue to be
hampered by lingering surface ridging through this period.
Particularly east of the Rockies, this will continue to contribute
to generally dry and/or stable conditions with negligible risk for thunderstorms.

...Pacific Northwest...
Models continue to indicate that mid-level height rises will be
underway, and the mid-level thermal trough axis (-32 to -34 C at 500
mb) may be in the process of shifting east of the Cascades by 12Z
Thursday. However, guidance indicates that the western edge of the
cold core (AOB -30C at 500 mb) will linger west of the Cascades into
at least Thursday afternoon, while deep-layer flow also remains at
least broadly cyclonic. Perhaps aided by large-scale ascent
associated with a weak embedded, inland migrating perturbation,
modest westerly low-level onshore/upslope flow, and destabilization
associated with insolation, a few weak thunderstorms appear possible
to the west of the Cascades Thursday.

..Kerr.. 11/18/2020

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ACUS02 KWNS 191713
SWODY2
SPC AC 191712

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1112 AM CST Thu Nov 19 2020

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms currently appears negligible across much
of the U.S. Friday through Friday night.

...Synopsis...
Models indicate that the westerlies will remain split, roughly along
120-140W longitude, with broadly confluent downstream flow centered
across the northern tier of the U.S. and adjacent southern Canada.
As one of the more significant perturbations embedded within this
regime continues accelerating eastward, from northwest Ontario and
the upper Great Lakes region through the Canadian Maritimes by 12Z
Saturday, the center of broad cold surface ridging is forecast to
build southeastward across/east of the middle Missouri Valley. This
will tend to contribute to the reinforcement of generally dry and
stable conditions in the wake of a prior cold intrusion; however, it
will be preceded by at least some further boundary-layer recovery
and inland return flow around the southern/western periphery of
remnant surface ridging centered over the Southeast.

...Florida...
Models indicate increasing potential instability within moistening
easterly low-level flow across the southwestern Atlantic/Bahamas
vicinity into the Florida Peninsula. This could contribute to
potential for deepening convective development and scattered showers
Friday into Friday night, particularly along the Atlantic coastal
areas. However, it appears that relatively warm mid-levels and
generally weak forcing for ascent will preclude intensification of
convection into thunderstorms.

...Ozark Plateau vicinity...
Models indicate that weak to modest low-level moistening on
southerly return flow will contribute to weak CAPE above the leading
edge of the southward advancing reinforcing cold intrusion. It
appears that this may become focused along the Interstate 44
corridor of southwestern through south central Missouri, where
mid-level cooling may also weaken inhibition sufficiently to allow
for deepening convective development by 12Z Saturday. While
forecast soundings appear to suggest some risk for lightning with
this activity, the extent of this potential remains unclear, and
thunderstorm probabilities are being maintained at less than 10
percent for now.

...Southwest...
Models also indicate weak destabilization will occur across the Four
Corners region Friday night, in response to low-level moisture
return and cooling aloft associated with a low-amplitude wave
emerging from the subtropical eastern Pacific. While at least some
output suggests that this could be accompanied by convection capable
of producing lightning, it remains unclear whether the risk reaches
the minimum 10 percent probability for a categorical thunderstorm
delineation.

..Kerr.. 11/19/2020

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ACUS02 KWNS 201720
SWODY2
SPC AC 201718

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1118 AM CST Fri Nov 20 2020

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
Saturday through Saturday night.

...Synopsis...
Models suggest that the most prominent branch of westerlies
emanating from the Pacific may undergo amplification during this
period. It appears that this will include a building mid-level
ridge across the Canadian Rockies and northern U.S. intermountain region/Rockies, and a digging short wave trough across the northern
Great Plains and middle Missouri Valley.

The short wave trough may support weak frontal wave development
along the leading edge of a reinforcing cold intrusion across the
Ozark Plateau/lower Missouri Valley vicinity, where southerly return
flow in the wake of a prior cold intrusion has allowed for weak to
modest low-level moistening. However, substantive further Gulf
moisture return appears unlikely, with only a very gradual continued boundary-layer moistening within easterly low-level flow to the
south of remnant surface ridging across the Gulf Coast region.

...Four Corners region through the Ozarks vicinity...
Ahead of the digging short wave trough, at least a couple of short
wave perturbations are forecast to traverse the region within a belt
of westerlies emanating from the southern mid-latitude/subtropical
eastern Pacific. Associated forcing for ascent probably will
contribute to areas of convective development. However, based on
model forecast soundings, the extent to which this activity may
become capable of producing lightning remains unclear.

Low-level moisture return and warm advection are expected to remain
focused across parts of the Ozark Plateau into the lower Missouri
Valley, where relatively warm temperatures aloft/weak lapse rates
may inhibit weak thunderstorm development until perhaps late
Saturday evening/Saturday night.

Upstream, very weak CAPE rooted at higher levels, aided by somewhat
steeper mid-level lapse rates, mainly near/above the 700 mb level
could become supportive of weak thunderstorm activity near the
Oklahoma/Kansas border vicinity into southeastern Colorado.
Otherwise, orographic forcing might contribute to an isolated weak
thunderstorm or two across the mountains of southwestern Colorado
late Saturday afternoon.

...Florida...
Within gradually moistening easterly low-level flow, models suggest
that areas of scattered showers may overspread the peninsula
Saturday through Saturday night. As a mid-level high center shifts
east of the south Atlantic Seaboard, weak cooling aloft may allow
for increasing probabilities for thunderstorms by Saturday night,
mainly near southeast coastal areas.

..Kerr.. 11/20/2020

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ACUS02 KWNS 210602
SWODY2
SPC AC 210600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1200 AM CST Sat Nov 21 2020

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely across the contiguous
United States on Sunday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
An upper trough initially over the Plains and Upper Midwest Sunday
morning will progress eastward across the MS/OH Valleys to the
eastern states by the end of the period. At the surface, a weak low
over the mid MS Valley should develop northeastward across the OH
Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast by late Sunday night
while slowly deepening. A cold front attendant to this surface low
is forecast to sweep east-southeastward across much of the southern
Plains, lower MS Valley/Southeast, and eastern states through early
Monday morning.

Limited low-level moisture, characterized by 50s surface dewpoints,
should be present in a narrow corridor ahead of the front across
parts of TX to the Mid-South. Isolated showers and thunderstorms may
be ongoing at the start of the period over these areas along/behind
the front, although instability should remain rather weak owing to
poor mid-level lapse rates. Thunderstorm potential should quickly
diminish by Sunday afternoon as the forcing associated with the
upper trough departs this region. Negligible instability forecast
across the OH Valley/Mid-Atlantic suggests thunderstorm potential
should remain very low as the upper trough moves over these areas.

Along much of the East Coast, surface ridging should generally
hinder the inland advance of substantial low-level moisture. One
exception may be eastern NC/SC late Sunday night into early Monday
morning. Here, upper 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints may be present
ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front. As modest mid-level
height falls associated with the approaching upper trough overspread
this region, at least isolated thunderstorms may develop. Although
deep-layer shear appears sufficient to support organized storms,
current expectations are for greater instability to remain confined
to immediate coastal areas, with any meaningful strong to severe
storm potential probably remaining offshore.

Elsewhere, isolated thunderstorms may occur Sunday across parts of
the FL Peninsula and the Keys as weak low-level easterly flow
continues, and the Four Corners vicinity into western CO as upper
troughing amplifies over the western CONUS late in the period.

..Gleason.. 11/21/2020

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ACUS02 KWNS 211713
SWODY2
SPC AC 211711

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1111 AM CST Sat Nov 21 2020

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely across the contiguous
United States on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
Shortwave trough currently moving into the northern Rockies is
forecast to continue southeastward across the Plains today and
tonight. By early Sunday, this shortwave will likely extend from the
Upper MS Valley into central KS. This shortwave is expected to
remain progressive on Sunday, ending the period extending from the
Upper OH Valley southward into the western Carolinas.

Surface low associated with this system will be centered the near
confluence of the MS and OH Rivers early Sunday, before continuing
quickly northeastward throughout the day while occluding. An
attendant cold front will extend southwestward from this low and is
forecast to progress through the southern Plains, mid/low MS Valley,
and OH/TN Valley throughout the period. Limited low-level moisture
will be in place ahead of the front early in the period from the
southern Plains into the Lower OH and TN Valley, with some isolated
lightning flashes possible along and behind the front within this
corridor. Some isolated flashes are also possible early Monday
morning over the eastern Carolinas amid modest low-level moisture
advection ahead of the approaching front.

Elsewhere, isolated thunderstorms may occur Sunday across parts of
the FL Peninsula and the Keys as weak low-level easterly flow
continues, and the Four Corners vicinity into western CO as upper
troughing amplifies over the western CONUS late in the period.

..Mosier.. 11/21/2020

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ACUS02 KWNS 221731
SWODY2
SPC AC 221729

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CST Sun Nov 22 2020

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely across the contiguous
United States on Monday.

...Synopsis...
Shortwave trough currently moving through Mid MS and OH Valleys is
expected to extend from the Lower Great Lakes into the
western/central Carolinas by early Monday morning. This system is
forecast to obtain an increasingly negative tilt as it continues
northeastward through the Northeast States. An attendant surface low
will start the period over the southern Saint Lawrence Valley, with
a cold front extending southeastward into southern New England and
then southward/southwestward off the East Coast.

A small portion of southern New England, including RI and eastern
MA/Cape Cod, may still be ahead of this front early Monday morning.
Mid-50s dewpoints are expected to be in place, contributing to the
potential for modest instability and a few, deeper convective cores
along the front. These deeper cores combined with moderate
low/mid-level flow could result in a few strong wind gusts. However,
spatial and temporal limit of the threat coupled with only marginal
potential precludes introducing any probabilities with this outlook.

Farther west, a deep shortwave trough is forecast to extend from
western British Columbia into central CA at the beginning of the
period. This shortwave is expected to deepen throughout the day
Monday, contributing to the development of a closed cyclone centered
over the Four Corners by early Tuesday morning. Downstream surface
cyclogenesis is anticipated over the central High Plains by Monday
evening, with the resulting surface low then moving eastward into
the central Plains. Limited moisture return ahead of this low will
keep the surface-based thunderstorm potential minimal. However, cold
mid-level temperatures and strong forcing for ascent attendant to
the mid/upper cyclone will likely contribute to isolated lightning
flashes within the deeper convective cores. A few flashes are also
possible in the stronger elevated storms within the warm sector.

..Mosier.. 11/22/2020

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ACUS02 KWNS 231704
SWODY2
SPC AC 231702

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1102 AM CST Mon Nov 23 2020

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible late afternoon Tuesday into
Tuesday night across portions of the southern/central Plains,
Ozarks, Mid-South, and lower Mississippi Valley. Large hail and
severe gusts are the primary hazards.

...Synopsis...
A potent mid-level shortwave trough --evident on water-vapor imagery
Monday morning over the southern Sierra Nevada-- will move from the
NM/AZ border on Tuesday morning, eastward to western MO by daybreak
Wednesday. An associated 90-kt 500 mb speed max will move through
the base of the trough and move into northwest TX/southern OK
Tuesday evening and into the Ozarks late. At the surface, a low
initially over the OK Panhandle will develop eastward into the lower
MO Valley as a cold front sweeps southward through much of OK and northwest/north-central TX Tuesday night.

...OK eastward into the Ozarks...
Strong southerly low-level flow during the day will advect 50s F
dewpoints northward into western/central OK as a warm front advances
northward into north-central OK by early evening. A dryline is
forecast to sweep eastward across the TX Panhandle/South Plains
during the afternoon. As strong large-scale ascent associated with
the disturbance overspreads the southern High Plains, isolated
thunderstorms are forecast to develop in the TX Panhandle into
western OK during the 3-6pm period. As the storms move/develop into
slightly richer low-level moisture near the OK border, the potential
for large hail will probably increase as mid-level cooling aids in destabilization (-18 to -21 C at 500 mb). Strengthening and veering
winds with height will favor storm organization, including the
possibility for a few low-topped supercells initially, before
upscale growth into a cluster or band of storms evolves during the
evening. Large hail will probably accompany the stronger cores
through early to mid evening before this threat lessens. Isolated
to widely scattered severe gusts (60-70 mph) are possible as this
activity moves east during the evening across OK. During the
overnight, a lingering risk for isolated damaging winds may continue
into the Ozarks and perhaps develop as far south as the Arklatex. A
separate area of thunderstorms is forecast to develop across
north-central TX overnight along the front. An isolated hail/wind
risk may accompany these storms.

..Smith.. 11/23/2020

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ACUS02 KWNS 241655
SWODY2
SPC AC 241654

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1054 AM CST Tue Nov 24 2020

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS...LOWER OH AND TN VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Wednesday across
parts of the lower/mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio/Tennessee
Valleys and Southeast. Locally damaging winds should be the main
threat, although a tornado or two also appears possible.

...Synopsis...

A mid/upper level shortwave trough centered over the Ozark Plateau
early Wednesday will lift northeast across the Midwest to the upper
OH Valley/central Appalachians by 12z Thursday. Surface low pressure
will move in tandem with the upper trough from MO toward the lower
Great Lakes while a trailing cold front pushes eastward across the
mid/lower MS valley and the lower OH/TN Valley. Ahead of the front,
southerly low level flow will continue to transport Gulf moisture
northward, with 60s F dewpoints reaching as far north a TN
potentially. Surface dewpoints in the 50s will be more common
farther north across the Ohio Valley vicinity. Surface heating will
be limited by cloudiness and showers ahead of the front, but cooling
aloft is expected to result in modest midlevel lapse rates.
Furthermore, strong shear profiles are forecast as winds veer with
height and 40-60 kt 850-700 mb southwesterly flow overspreads much
of the southern/central U.S. This should support at least isolated strong-to-severe thunderstorms capable of strong/locally damaging
wind gusts across the lower/mid MS Valley to the OH/TN Valley.

...Lower/Mid MS Valley to the OH/TN Valley Vicinity...

Higher-quality low level moisture will be confined to the lower MS
Valley into MS/AL on Wednesday. While stronger heating will be
limited by cloudiness and showers ahead of the cold front, modest
midlevel lapse rates atop rich boundary layer moisture should result
in at least weak surface-based instability (typically 750 J/kg or
less). Strong shear will reside over the region to aid in organized
convection. Deep layer flow will mainly be parallel to the front,
favoring line segments, but a couple of semi-discrete cells also are
possible. Strong forcing closer to the trough/surface low will be
shifting away from the region through the day, but the front and
weak buoyancy will be sufficient for strong-to-severe convection
into parts of MS/AL and middle TN through early evening. Storm mode
and quickly strengthening flow with height will mainly favor
damaging wind potential. However, where backed low level flow is
present, low level SRH will be enhanced and a tornado or two cannot
be entirely ruled out.

Farther north, instability will be even weaker given overall
poorer-quality boundary layer moisture and a cooler environment.
However, steeper midlevel lapse rates with colder air aloft should
result in weak elevated instability. Stronger forcing and favorable
shear profiles may compensate somewhat for meager instability, and
at least a narrow line of near-surface-based convection closer to
the surface low and cold front is expected during the
afternoon/evening across parts of the lower OH Valley. Strong low
level wind field associated with low/midlevel jet streak will favor
bowing segments capable of isolated strong/damaging gusts.

..Leitman.. 11/24/2020

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ACUS02 KWNS 260601
SWODY2
SPC AC 260600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1200 AM CST Thu Nov 26 2020

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS...LOUISIANA...AND SOUTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Friday across
parts of central/east Texas, Louisiana, and southwestern
Mississippi. Large hail and strong to damaging winds should be the
main threats.

...Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley...
Mainly elevated thunderstorms will probably be ongoing to the north
of a warm front at the beginning of the period across parts of east
TX and LA. This activity will be supported by modest low-level warm
advection, which is forecast to weaken through Friday morning.
Still, given the forecast combination of MUCAPE around 500-1250 J/kg
and 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear, this convection may continue to
pose an isolated large hail threat across parts of LA and perhaps
southwestern MS through the morning hours before diminishing.

As a closed upper low slowly pivots across the Southwest and towards
the southern High Plains through the period, a belt of enhanced west-southwesterly mid-level winds will remain over much of
central/east TX into parts of the lower MS Valley. A generally southwest-northeast oriented surface boundary should be located over
these areas, with rich low-level moisture characterized by upper 60s
to perhaps low 70s surface dewpoints to its south. It appears that
this boundary will serve a focus for potentially robust convection
through the day, possibly beginning by early afternoon across
central TX as an upper jet overspreads this region. Up to 1000-1500
J/kg of MLCAPE may develop along/south the front. Coupled with
strong deep-layer shear, this should support some organized
convection. Isolated large hail and strong to locally damaging wind
gusts appear to be the main threats as storms move slowly
east-southeastward into coastal TX/LA in tandem with the surface
front through Friday evening.

..Gleason.. 11/26/2020

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ACUS02 KWNS 261716
SWODY2
SPC AC 261715

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1115 AM CST Thu Nov 26 2020

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the northwestern Gulf
coastal plain Friday, and could pose at least some risk for severe
hail and strong wind gusts.

...Synopsis...
Stronger mid-latitude westerlies are forecast to remain confined to
the central/northern tier of the U.S. northward, but a strong
high-level jet emerging from the subtropical eastern Pacific appears
likely to remain influential across the Gulf Coast region and
Southeast through this period.

Within this regime, one mid-latitude wave, in phase with the
subtropical stream, is forecast to progress east of the New England
coast by 12Z Friday, followed by another perturbation digging into
and across the Great Lakes region by late Friday night. Another
upstream perturbation, currently splitting off of the belt of
mid-latitude westerlies across the Great Basin, may evolve into a
mid-level low over Arizona, before gradually accelerating eastward
in phase with the subtropical westerlies, into/across the southern
Rockies.

Although spread among the various model output remains largest
concerning the Southwestern perturbation, there is little suggestion
within the guidance that it will provide support for substantive
wave development along a frontal zone expected to slowly continue
advancing into the northwestern Gulf coastal plain. This frontal
motion is forecast in response to the progression of the preceding
mid-latitude short waves, which may also contribute to a
southeastward advancement of the front off the southern Atlantic
Seaboard, while the front becomes quasi-stationary across the
eastern Gulf Coast states vicinity.

A plume of seasonably moist air will linger along and just south of
this frontal zone, though generally weak mid/upper lapse rates are
expected to temper the potential instability.

...Southeast Texas into southern Louisiana/Mississippi...
Near/just south of the surface front, it does appear that CAPE
rooted within/just above the boundary-layer may reach 500-1000 J/kg
across the coastal plain. Deep-layer shear is also expected to
become strong, as the core of the high-level jet emerging from the
subtropics begins to overspread the region, with 30-50+ kt westerly
flow as low as the 700-500 mb layer. However, guidance generally
indicates that low-level wind fields and forcing for ascent will
remain modest to weak through this period.

Models do suggest that a coupling of speed maxima within the
mid/upper jet may contribute to a region of strong, focused
high-level divergence overspreading southeast Texas into the lower
Mississippi Valley during the day Friday. Perhaps aided by weak
mid-level warm advection, this is expected to contribute to
thunderstorm development which could eventually become rooted within
the modestly unstable boundary layer. If this occurs, stronger
cells may briefly become capable of producing marginally severe
hail. One or two small organizing clusters of storms might not be
out of the question, which could pose a risk for potentially
damaging wind gusts while propagating southeastward into Friday
evening.

..Kerr.. 11/26/2020

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ACUS02 KWNS 270601
SWODY2
SPC AC 270600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1200 AM CST Fri Nov 27 2020

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely across the contiguous
United States on Saturday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A closed upper low initially over the southern High Plains should
move slowly eastward across TX/OK on Saturday. A weak surface low is
forecast to form over the western Gulf of Mexico ahead of this
feature, eventually reaching the coastal LA vicinity by early Sunday
morning. Large-scale lift ahead of the upper low and weak low-level
warm advection will likely support numerous to widespread showers
and thunderstorms across central/east TX Saturday morning, which
should limit instability. The majority of this convection is
expected to remain elevated, as a surface front should generally
move off the middle/upper TX Coast through the day. As the surface
low develops northeastward over the western Gulf of Mexico,
increasing low-level moisture will begin to approach the LA Coast
late Saturday night into early Sunday morning as a marine warm front
develops slowly northward. At this point, it appears that the
potential for surface-based thunderstorms will probably remain
offshore from the LA Coast through the end of the period.
Accordingly, severe probabilities have not been included.

..Gleason.. 11/27/2020

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ACUS02 KWNS 271700
SWODY2
SPC AC 271658

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1058 AM CST Fri Nov 27 2020

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely across the contiguous
United States on Saturday.

...Synopsis...
A mid/upper low and attendant shortwave trough will eject from the
southern Rockies to the southern Plains on Saturday. As the trough
emerges over the Plains late in the period, a weak surface low will
develop along the middle/upper TX coast toward southwest LA,
allowing a stalled cold front to surge eastward across southern TX
to the Sabine River vicinity. Meanwhile, a warm front will remain
draped west-to-east from the surface low over southwest LA to near
the FL/GA border.

Showers and thunderstorms are likely across much of eastern TX into
the Ozark Plateau and lower MS Valley in this warm advection regime
ahead of the upper trough. While a couple of strong storms are
possible near the TX Gulf coast, instability will be limited over
land by cloud cover/poor heating and widespread precipitation, and
any severe potential is expected to remain offshore.

..Leitman.. 11/27/2020

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ACUS02 KWNS 011708
SWODY2
SPC AC 011706

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1106 AM CST Tue Dec 01 2020

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR ADJACENT
PARTS OF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible over the
middle/upper Texas Coast and far southwest Louisiana on Wednesday.

...Synopsis...
A mid- to upper-level low will meander eastward across OK during the
period as a belt of stronger 500-mb flow resides across the northern
half of TX into the lower MS Valley. In the low levels, a cold
front will push eastward across central TX early in the day and be
located over the TX shelf waters by late evening. Only weak surface
reflection is forecast over the southern Plains by model guidance.
The relatively weak low-level response will likely play a role in
terms of limiting the inland penetration of a weakly unstable warm
sector to the immediate TX coast. Forecast soundings show a moist
and nearly saturated boundary layer with relatively poor lapse
rates, despite a wind profile supporting a conditional risk for
storm organization. A few transient rotating cells may develop near
the upper TX coast during the day but widespread clouds and showers
will limit the overall severe potential. A risk for locally
damaging gusts may accompany the stronger storms. Further north, a
few weak elevated thunderstorms are possible across east TX during
the day with this activity shifting east into the lower MS Valley
late.

..Smith.. 12/01/2020

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ACUS02 KWNS 021655
SWODY2
SPC AC 021653

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1053 AM CST Wed Dec 02 2020

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United
States on Thursday.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level low will meander eastward from central OK to the Ozark
Plateau while a belt of strong mid- to high-level southwesterly flow
resides across the lower MS Valley. In the low levels, a cold front
over the northwest Gulf Basin and LA will push eastward across the
lower MS Valley. Negligible surface reflection in the form of an
inverted trough and weak low pressure are forecast to move east over
southern parts of LA, MS, and southwest AL. Weak elevated
thunderstorms are forecast north of I-10 in the central Gulf Coast
states. Forecast soundings indicate near surface-based parcels
could reach as far north as the barrier islands or mainland beaches
of MS/AL late Thursday night/early Friday morning. While it is
possible a storm or two could exhibit weak rotation in the
near-shore waters, it seems the risk for severe will remain low.
Elsewhere, quiescent conditions will be pervasive over a large part
of the West east into the Great Plains and the Eastern Seaboard.

..Smith.. 12/02/2020

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ACUS02 KWNS 031724
SWODY2
SPC AC 031723

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1123 AM CST Thu Dec 03 2020

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND PARTS OF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible portions of the Florida
Panhandle Friday and across the coastal Carolinas late Friday night.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level low/trough located over the Mid South Friday morning
will transition into an open wave and become negatively tilted
Friday evening over the southern Appalachians before moving east of
the VA/NC coast by early Saturday morning. Southerly low-level flow
will transport still-modifying air northward from the northern Gulf
of Mexico into the FL Panhandle. The lack of robust surface
cyclogenesis until after sunset Friday evening over the Carolinas
will likely preclude both the stronger advection processes and
appreciable destabilization inland of the immediate coastal areas of
the northeast Gulf of Mexico.

By Friday evening, the developing surface low over the western
Carolinas will undergo the initial stages of bombogenesis beginning
Friday night into Saturday. Only low-mid 50s dewpoints are forecast
across the Upstate of SC into western and central NC with 100-200
J/kg MUCAPE. However, intensifying deep-layer forcing for ascent
coupled with weak instability will probably lead to isolated
thunderstorms developing by early to mid evening. Although this
activity will likely remain elevated as it organizes into a few
small-scale convective bands near the low, a conditional risk for
damaging gusts cannot be ruled out.

By late evening, an appreciably destabilized airmass is expected
over the NC coastal plain into northeast SC ahead of the gradually
intensifying convection moving into the area from the west. Surface
dewpoints ranging from the upper 50s further inland to the lower 60s
near the immediate coast, will contribute to weak instability.
Strong deep-layer shear will support storm organization and an
isolated damaging wind/brief tornado risk may develop before the
activity pushes east of the coast during the late overnight hours.

..Smith.. 12/03/2020

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ACUS02 KWNS 041729
SWODY2
SPC AC 041728

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CST Fri Dec 04 2020

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected Saturday or Saturday night.

...Synopsis/Discussion...
An amplified large-scale pattern will persist over the CONUS with
split upper-level flow over the Plains and Midwest. Thunderstorm
potential along the Eastern Seaboard will have largely diminished
into Saturday in the wake of a cold frontal passage. Most of the
thunderstorm potential will be focused ahead of the cold front over
the western Atlantic, but a few near-shore thunderstorms could occur
in association with weak elevated buoyancy and cyclogenesis near the
New England coast.

Elsewhere, ahead of an eastward-moving southern-stream trough over
northeast Mexico and central/southern Texas, sufficient elevated
buoyancy may allow for a few thunderstorms near the Texas coast,
although the bulk of the deeper convection should remain decidedly
offshore. Finally, low-topped convection may accompany a shortwave
trough approaching the coastal Pacific Northwest Saturday afternoon
into Saturday night. However, forecast thermodynamic profiles do not
appear overly supportive of lightning flashes.

..Guyer.. 12/04/2020

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ACUS02 KWNS 050537
SWODY2
SPC AC 050535

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1135 PM CST Fri Dec 04 2020

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across southern Florida Sunday
night into early Monday morning.

...Synopsis...

Surface high pressure will bring mainly dry and stable conditions to
most of the CONUS on Sunday. The exception will be across southern
Florida late in the period, where isolated to scattered
thunderstorms are possible. An upper low over the southern Plains is
forecast to become an open wave as it merges with another trough
developing southeastward across the Midwest/Mid-South vicinity
during the evening, and continue eastward overnight. This will bring
increasing southwesterly deep layer flow across the Gulf of Mexico
and southeastern states.

At the surface, a weak low over the western Gulf will shift eastward
through the period and be located offshore the southwestern FL coast
by Monday morning. Boundary layer moisture will increase across
southern Florida overnight in conjunction with strengthening
effective shear. Isolated thunderstorms are expected across the
southern Peninsula after 06z, and more likely by around 09z. Weak
instability and poor lapse rates should limit severe potential,
though a strong wind gust or two can not be ruled out.

..Leitman.. 12/05/2020

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ACUS02 KWNS 051732
SWODY2
SPC AC 051730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CST Sat Dec 05 2020

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
FLORIDA...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to locally severe storms may occur across southern
Florida Sunday night and early Monday morning.

...Synopsis...
A highly amplified/complex large-scale pattern will prevail on
Sunday over the CONUS. A general prevalence of cool/stable
conditions over the CONUS will confine deep convective potential to
the Gulf of Mexico into far southern Florida.

...Southern Florida...
Have introduced severe probabilities for late-night severe potential
Sunday night into the morning hours of Monday. Weak height falls
related to the amplifying upper trough over the Appalachians will
influence weak cyclogenesis over the Gulf of Mexico into southern
Florida, particularly Sunday night, as low-level moisture otherwise
gradually increases. Ongoing storms over the Gulf of Mexico late
Sunday may approach the Florida Keys and possibly the far southern
Florida Peninsula late Sunday night/early Monday, with the
possibility of some semi-discrete development also preceding any
complex of storms over the Gulf of Mexico. While modest overall
buoyancy and weak mid-level lapse rates should limit the overall
magnitude and likelihood of a severe risk, sufficient
moisture/instability in the presence of strengthening low/mid-level
winds will support the possibility of some strong to locally severe
storms capable of wind gusts and/or a tornado risk.

..Guyer.. 12/05/2020

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ACUS02 KWNS 060549
SWODY2
SPC AC 060547

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1147 PM CST Sat Dec 05 2020

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are expected across the far southern Florida
peninsula and Keys Monday morning.

...Southern FL and the Keys...

The base of an upper trough over the eastern U.S. will pivot
northeast on Monday, moving across the eastern Gulf Coast vicinity,
and eventually offshore from the Atlantic coast Monday night. A weak
surface low is forecast to be located near the FL Keys at the
beginning of the period, with a cold front extending across southern
FL. Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing near the Keys
and far south/southeastern peninsula. A narrow corridor of mid/upper
60s F dewpoints and a couple hundred J/kg SBCAPE may overlap with
sufficient low level shear to foster a couple of strong storms.
However, forecast guidance varies, with faster solutions showing
strong storms south and east of the Keys and the southern Peninsula
by 12-13z while slower solutions bring a band of convection through
by 15-16z. Thunderstorm activity will quickly diminish toward midday
as the front pushes offshore. Uncertainty in short-duration severe
potential in the first 2-3 hours of the forecast period will
preclude Marginal risk probabilities at this time. However, if
confidence increases in a slower eastward progression of
thunderstorms, low-end wind and possibly tornado probabilities may
be necessary in later outlooks.

..Leitman.. 12/06/2020

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ACUS02 KWNS 061731
SWODY2
SPC AC 061730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CST Sun Dec 06 2020

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
FLORIDA...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong thunderstorms may occur across southern Florida Monday
morning.

...Synopsis...
An amplified large-scale flow pattern will remain over North America
on Monday. A relatively deep trough will shift eastward over the
upper Ohio Valley and Appalachians on Monday, with a related cold
front continuing to progress southeastward across southern Florida.
Meanwhile, a closed low will move south-southwestward over southern
California toward off the coast of Baja. A prevalence of dry/stable
conditions CONUS-wise will spatiotemporally confine deep convective
potential to southern Florida Monday morning.

...Florida Keys and far southern Florida Peninsula...
A late-night severe risk tonight into early Monday may persist
beyond 12Z Monday and linger for an hour or two, prior to the front
moving offshore to the Florida Straits by mid/late morning. Current
thinking is that storms will be ongoing Monday morning across the
region, including the possibility of a few strong or locally severe
storms. This would be in association with a relatively moist (near
70F surface dewpoint) and modestly unstable air mass in the presence
of 35-40 kt effective shear. Any such severe risk should wane by
mid/late morning.

..Guyer.. 12/06/2020

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ACUS02 KWNS 071726
SWODY2
SPC AC 071725

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 AM CST Mon Dec 07 2020

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday.

...Synopsis/Discussion...
An amplified large-scale pattern will include moderately strong
cyclonic westerlies over the Appalachians and Southeast States on
Tuesday, with a closed low moving little off the coast of Baja and
southern California. A general CONUS-wide prevalence of high
pressure and dry/stable continental trajectories are expected to
result in essentially nil thunderstorm potential Tuesday and Tuesday
night.

..Guyer.. 12/07/2020

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