WTPN32 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 11W (HAISHEN) WARNING NR 029
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 40.7N 128.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 24 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 40.7N 128.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 44.0N 128.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 45.7N 128.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
071500Z POSITION NEAR 41.5N 128.8E.
07SEP20. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 11W (HAISHEN), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 233 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF OSAN AB, SOUTH
KOREA HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 24 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS CONTINUED DECAYING CONVECTION THAT IS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY DECOUPLED FROM A BROADENING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WHICH IS NOW TRACKING OVER LAND.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED
ON THE LOCATION OF THE LLCC IN THE EIR LOOP AS WELL AS VIA
EXTRAPOLATION THROUGH A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION FEATURE IN
THE SCATTEROMETRY DATA FROM A TIMELY 071206Z ASCAT-A PASS.
THE INTENSITY IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
35 KTS WIND SPEEDS PRESENT IN THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT-A
DATA. TS HAISHEN WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK POLEWARD THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. BY TAU 12 THE SYSTEM
WILL BECOME FULLY EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW AND
COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS A COLD CORE LOW.
DYNAMIC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR
HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION.
//
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