WTPN21 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 97W)//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/100451Z SEP 20//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 100500)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 28.9N 139.2E TO 35.0N 141.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 111200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 29.2N 139.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
AT 25.4N 141.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 29.2N 139.2E, APPROXIMATELY 285 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF IWO-TO, JAPAN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER DISPLACED FROM THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION THAT IS SHEARED 80 NM TO THE NORTHEAST. SCATTEROMETRY DATA FROM A 111041Z ASCAT-A PASS DEPICTS AN
ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH WEAK (10-15 KTS) CORE WINDS AND
STRONGER (25 KTS) WINDS DISPLACED 70 NM TO THE NORTHEAST UNDER THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS MARGINAL FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM
(29-30 CELSIUS) AND ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT OFFSET BY HIGH (20-25
KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. NUMERICAL MODELS
ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.
THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
121500Z.//
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