• Pacific-W: TD 12 #2

    From Dumas Walker@21:1/175 to All on Saturday, September 12, 2020 10:04:00
    WTPN31 PGTW 120300
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (TWELVE) WARNING NR 002//
    RMKS/
    1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (TWELVE) WARNING NR 002
    01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
    WARNING POSITION:
    120000Z --- NEAR 31.5N 138.4E
    MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
    POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
    POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
    PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
    REPEAT POSIT: 31.5N 138.4E
    ---
    FORECASTS:
    12 HRS, VALID AT:
    121200Z --- 33.6N 139.9E
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    EXTRATROPICAL
    VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
    24 HRS, VALID AT:
    130000Z --- 35.7N 142.6E
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
    REMARKS:
    120300Z POSITION NEAR 32.0N 138.8E.
    12SEP20. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (TWELVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
    237 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
    NORTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
    MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) INDICATES THAT THE IMPROVING
    CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OBSERVED SIX HOURS AGO HAS SUCCUMBED
    TO THE HIGH (20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), LEAVING BEHIND A
    WEAK, EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE LLCC IN MSI WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. A 112304Z ASCAT-A PASS REVEALED ONLY A FEW ISOLATED 25 TO 30 KNOT WIND BARBS UNDER DEEP CONVECTION, AND DISPLACED 75 NM FROM THE LLCC. THE INITIAL
    INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 25 KNOTS BASED ON THESE ISOLATED ASCAT
    WINDS AND AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES, HOWEVER, THE EXPOSED LLCC IS
    GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED BY ONLY 10-15 KNOT WINDS. 12W IS CLEARLY
    INTERACTING WITH MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND IS TAKING ON EXTRA-
    TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED
    TO BE COMPLETED WITHIN 12 HOURS, CONSISTENT WITH FSU PHASE SPACE
    GUIDANCE. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS SHORT
    FORECAST. JTWC FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ASSESSED AS HIGH.
    THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
    WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
    SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z
    IS 9 FEET.
    //
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