WTPQ30 RJTD 231200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.11 FOR STS 2012 DOLPHIN (2012)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS DOLPHIN IS LOCATED AT 33.1N, 141.2E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND RADAR IMAGERY.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 50KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF INCREASED VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM
SEA SURFACE AMVS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SHORTENING OF A BAND WITH CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
UNTIL FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 IN A STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE BY FT48. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
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