704
WTNT41 KNHC 101441
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Delta Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2020

Surface observations, Doppler radar data, and satellite imagery
indicate that Delta has continued to weaken as it moves from
northeastern Louisiana into western Mississippi. There are no
recent surface observations of sustained tropical-storm-force
winds in the areas where the radar data show the strongest winds
are occurring, so based on this the initial intensity is reduced to
30 kt. It should be noted that wind gusts to tropical-storm force
are still occurring over portions of northern Mississippi and
southeastern Arkansas, and these should continue through this
afternoon.

The initial motion is now northeastward or 035/14. The flow
between a mid-to upper-level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico and the
mid-latitude westerlies over the United States should steer Delta
or its remnants generally northeastward until the system
dissipates. The new forecast track has only minor adjustments from
the previous forecast, and it lies near the consensus models.

Continued weakening is expected, and Delta is forecast to
degenerate to a remnant low pressure area in about 24 h. The
global models are in good agreement that the cyclone should weaken
to a trough between 48-60 h, and the intensity forecast follows
this scenario.

This is the last advisory on Delta issued by the National Hurricane
Center. Future information on this system can be found in Public
Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at
4 PM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT1, WMO header WTNT31 KWNH, and on
the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov.

Key Messages:

1. Water levels will continue to subside today along the
Louisiana coast. Consult products issued by your local National
Weather Service forecast office for additional information.

2. Tropical-storm-force wind gusts will persist for a few more
hours over portions of northern Mississippi and southeastern
Arkansas.

3. Heavy rainfall will lead to flash flooding and minor river
flooding across portions of the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee
Valleys today, and into the Southern Appalachians through Sunday.
Minor to major river flooding will continue across portions of
Louisiana and Mississippi though much of next week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/1500Z 33.1N 90.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
12H 11/0000Z 34.1N 89.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
24H 11/1200Z 35.5N 87.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 12/0000Z 37.5N 84.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 12/1200Z 39.7N 82.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven
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