From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Saturday, October 10, 2020 11:08:00
WTPQ30 RJTD 101200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.25 FOR STS 2014 CHAN-HOM (2014)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS CHAN-HOM IS LOCATED AT 32.1N, 138.4E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
985HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 55KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW
TCHP, STRONG VWS, DRY AIR AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS
CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS THE SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM
THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE
SYSTEM. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL
FT06. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO THE SOUTH DUE TO
INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER VORTEX UNTIL FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOW TCHP, STRONG VWS, DRY AIR AND
GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48
DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOW TCHP, STRONG VWS AND
DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT48. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
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