• Pac-W: Typ Chan-Hom R25

    From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Saturday, October 10, 2020 11:08:00
    WTPQ30 RJTD 101200
    RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
    REASONING NO.25 FOR STS 2014 CHAN-HOM (2014)
    1.GENERAL COMMENTS
    STS CHAN-HOM IS LOCATED AT 32.1N, 138.4E. INFORMATION ON THE
    CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
    OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
    985HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 55KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
    NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW
    TCHP, STRONG VWS, DRY AIR AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS
    CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX
    HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
    INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
    2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
    THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW. ANIMATED
    MSI SHOWS THE SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM
    THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF
    ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE
    SYSTEM. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
    HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
    3.TRACK FORECAST
    THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL
    FT06. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO THE SOUTH DUE TO
    INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER VORTEX UNTIL FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
    BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
    FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
    AGREEMENT.
    4.INTENSITY FORECAST
    THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE
    INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOW TCHP, STRONG VWS, DRY AIR AND
    GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48
    DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOW TCHP, STRONG VWS AND
    DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT48. THE
    INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
    INCLUDING GSM.
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