WTPQ30 RJTD 111200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.29 FOR TS 2014 CHAN-HOM (2014)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS CHAN-HOM IS LOCATED AT 31.5N, 142.1E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
996HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN
AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
STRONG VWS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD DUE TO INTERACTION WITH AN
UPPER VORTEX. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SEPARATION OF ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS
AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD DUE TO INTERACTION WITH
AN UPPER VORTEX UNTIL FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN ACTUAL
TYPHOON TRACKING AND NWP IN THE NEAR TERM.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH
STRONG VWS AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY
FT12. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
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