WTPN21 PHNC 120030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (REMNANTS OF 19E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
190 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.9N 107.6W TO 19.1N 112.9W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 111800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 17.5N 108.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF 19E) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 16.6N 107.5W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 108.0W, APPROXIMATELY 189NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SOCORRO ISLAND, MEXICO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) OBSCURED BY FLARING CONVECTION. AN 112037Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE
WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. AN 111630Z BULLSEYE ASCAT-A PASS SHOWS A WELL
DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (< 15KTS), STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SST (29C-30C).
GLOBAL DYNAMIC MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER
THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
130030Z.
//
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WTPN21 PHNC 130030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (REMNANTS OF 19E)//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/120021ZOCT20//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PHNC 120030)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.2N 108.1W TO 20.5N 112.3W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 101800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 17.2N 108.3W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 02 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF 19E) PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 108.0W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 108.4W,
APPROXIMATELY 170NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SOCORRO ISLAND, MEXICO.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLOW
CONSOLIDATING LOW SYSTEM WITH A LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) PARTIALLY
OBSCURED BY WEAK FLARING CONVECTION. A 122343Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWS THE DEEP, ALBEIT FRAGMENTED, CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE
NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE LLC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (<
10KTS), MARGINAL POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(29C-30C). GLOBAL DYNAMIC MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT THE
DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20
TO 25 KNOTS.MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004
MB. THEPOTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
140030Z.//
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