WTIN20 DEMS 140635



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 14.10.2020



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL
AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 120 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC OF
14.10.2020 BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 14.10.2020 .



BAY OF BENGAL:



SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY
INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL. SCATTERED LOW
AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE TO INTENSE CONVECTION
LAY OVER SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL & ANDAMAN SEA.





PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS(FORMATION OF DEPRESSION) DURING NEXT
120 HRS:



24 HOURS 24-48 HOURS 48-72 HOURS 72-96 HOURS 96-120 HOURS

NIL NIL NIL NIL LOW



ARABIAN SEA:




SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY
INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA OFF MAHAKRNTK
COASTS. SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE TO
INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER REST EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA &
SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA.



PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS(FORMATION OF DEPRESSION) DURING
NEXT 120 HRS :


24 HOURS 24-48 HOURS 48-72 HOURS 72-96 HOURS 96-120 HOURS


NIL NIL LOW MODERATE MODERATE





REMARKS:



A FEW MODELS ARE INDICATING EMERGENCE OF REMNANT FROM SOUTH CHINA
SEA INTO ANDAMAN SEA AROUND 18TH OCTOBER WITH FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION AND WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS MOVEMENT TOWARDS
ODISHA-WEST BENGAL COAST. GENESIS POTENTIAL PARAMETER INDEX
IS INDICATING POTENTIAL ZONE FOR CYCLOGENESIS OVER ANDAMAN SEA
AND ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL DURING 17TH-20TH.

THE NWP MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE REMNANT OF EXISTING DEPRESSION
OVER TELANGANA AFTER CROSSING THE PENINSULAR INDIA WOULD EMERGE
INTO EASTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING NORTHEAST ARABIAN SEA OFF NORTH
KONKAN-SOUTH GUJARAT COASTS AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA AROUND 16 TH
MORNING. THERE IS LOW TO MODERATE PROBABILITY FOR IT\U2019S
INTENSIFICATION INTO A DEPRESSION THEREAFTER OVER THE SAME REGION.





THUS, WATCH HAS TO BE MAINTAINED ABOUT THE EMERGENCE OF THE
REMNANT OF (I) CYCLONIC STORM OVER SOUTH CHINA SEA INTO BAY OF
BENGAL AROUND 18TH OCTOBER AND (II) DEPRESSION OVER TELANGANA
INTO ARABIAN SEA OFF NORTH KONKAN AND SOUTH GUJARAT COASTS ON
16TH.=
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