WTPN21 PGTW 150700
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94W)//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/140651Z OCT 20//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 140700)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.0N 118.7E TO 15.2N 111.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 150600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.0N 118.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 14.6N 118.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 118.4E, APPROXIMATELY
154 NM WEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A SMALL, PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO THE WEST- SOUTHWEST. A 150108Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS REVEALS A TIGHT CIRCULATION
EMBEDDED IN THE LARGER CONVERGENT AREA WITH A SMALL SWATH OF 20 TO
25 KNOT WINDS TO THE EAST. 94W IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WITH GENERALLY STRAIGHT-LINE FLOW PROVIDED MODERATE
OUTFLOW AND MODERATE (20 TO 25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CONDUCIVE AT 29 TO 30 CELSIUS. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 94W WILL TRACK GENERALLY WEST,
ACROSS THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, WITH MINIMAL INTENSIFICATION.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21
PGTW
140700).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
160700Z.//
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WTPN22 PGTW 201300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
135 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.3N 149.3E TO 13.1N 143.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 201200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.4N 149.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 6.0N 153.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 149.0E, APPROXIMATELY 305
NM SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A DISORGANIZED AREA OF FRAGMENTED CONVECTION.
A PARTIAL 200252Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS A SHARP EASTERLY
WAVE OR A POSSIBLE WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH CYCLING
CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST. PREVIOUS SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES
AN ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD, WITH LIGHT WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE AND STRONGER (15-20 KT) WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
QUADRANT IN THE GRADIENT FLOW. INVEST 94W IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH FAIR EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW,
LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
INVEST 94W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS IT SLOWLY
CONSOLIDATES OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
211300Z.
//
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