WTPQ30 RJTD 201800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 8 FOR TS 2017 SAUDEL (2017)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS SAUDEL IS LOCATED AT 16.3N, 119.7E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. HOWEVER, THE LIMITED FIRMNESS
OF ITS STRUCTURE HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS
GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW HAVE BECOME OBSCURE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY
DECELERATE AND MOVE WESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT72.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE WESTWARD ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE
TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER
NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP
MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY UNTIL FT120 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL.
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT120. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
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