WTIN20 DEMS 240304
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF
BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 120 HOURS ISSUED AT 0300 UTC
OF 24.10.2020 BASED ON 0000 UTC OF 24.10.2020.

BAY OF BENGAL:

THE DEPRESSION OVER CENTRAL BANGLADESH NEIGHBOURHOOD MOVED NORTH-NORHTEASTWARDS, WEAKENED INTO A WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE AND
LAY CENTRED OVER THE SAME REGION AT 0000 UTC OF 24TH OCTOBER, 2020.



THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS
15 KNOTS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS.



AS PER SATELLITE IMAGERY BASED ON 0000 UTC OF 24TH OCTOBER, THE
SYSTEM IS OVER NORTH-EAST BANGLADESH & NEIBOURHOOD CENTERED WITHIN
HALF A DEGREE OF 24.5N/90.5E. CENTER NOT CLEARLY DEFINED IN IR
IMAGERY. INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER EAST BANGLADESH
ADJOINING NORTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL & NORTHEASTERN STATES. MINIMUM
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE IS -93OC.



PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS(FORMATION OF DEPRESSION) DURING NEXT 120
HRS :





24 HOURS


24-48 HOURS


48-72 HOURS


72-96 HOURS


96-120 HOURS

NIL


NIL


NIL


NIL


NIL



ARABIAN SEA:

SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE TO INTENSE
CONVECTION LAY OVER EASTCENTRAL ARABAIN SEA BETWEEN LAT 12.0ON TO
17.0ON EAST OF LONG 66.0OE & CENTRAL PARTS OF SOUTHWEST ARABIAN SEA.



PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS(FORMATION OF DEPRESSION) DURING NEXT 120
HRS :



24 HOURS


24-48 HOURS


48-72 HOURS


72-96 HOURS


96-120 HOURS

NIL


NIL


NIL


NIL


NIL



THIS IS THE LAST SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK IN THIS REGARD.

ROUTINE BULLETINS SHALL BE CONTINUED.


(SUNITHA DEVI S.)

SCIENTIST-E, RSMC, NEW DELHI=
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WTIN20 DEMS 220416
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 21.11.2020

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY
OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 120 HOURS ISSUED AT
0300 UTC OF 22.11.2020 BASED ON 0000 UTC OF 22.11.2020 .

A.DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHWEST ARABIAN SEA:
THE DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHWEST ARABIAN SEA MOVED WESTWARDS WITH A
SPEED OF 36 KMPH DURING PAST 06 HOURS, INTENSIFIED INTO A DEEP
DEPRESSION AND LAY CENTRED AT 0000 UTC OF TODAY 22ND NOVEMBER 2020
OVER SOUTHWEST ARABIAN SEA NEAR LATITUDE 11.1O N AND LONGITUDE
55.4OE,
ABOUT 230 KM SOUTHEAST OF SOCOTRA (41494), 460 KM EAST OF RAS
BINNAH AND 510 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ALULA (SOMALIA). IT IS VERY
LIKELY TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS AND INTENSIFY INTO A CYCLONIC
STORM DURING NEXT 12 HOURS. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO CROSS SOMALIA COAST
BETWEEN LATITUDE 10.5O N AND 11.0O N TO THE SOUTH OF RAS BINNAH
(SOMALIA) DURING THE EARLY HOURS OF 23RD NOVEMBER AS A CYCLONIC
STORM WITH A WIND SPEED OF 80-90 KMPH GUSTING TO 100 KMPH.

FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY ARE GIVEN BELOW:

DATE/TIME(IST) POSITION MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE CATEGORY
OF CYCLONIC
(LAT.ON/ LONG.OE) WIND SPEED (KMPH)
DISTURBANCE

22.11.20/0000 11.1/55.4 55-65 GUSTING TO 75 DEEP
DEPRESSION
22.11.20/0600 11.0/53.8 70-80 GUSTING TO 90 CYCLONIC
STORM
22.11.20/1200 10.9/52.2 80-90 GUSTING TO 100 CYCLONIC
STORM
22.11.20/1800 10.8/50.6 80-90 GUSTING TO 100 CYCLONIC
STORM
23.11.20/0000 10.9/49.0 70-80 GUSTING TO 90 CYCLONIC
STORM
23.11.20/1200 11.1/45.8 50-60 GUSTING TO 70 DEEP
DEPRESSION

A SHIP AT 10.6ON AND 57.0OE REPORTED WIND 19.0 KTS /120O.

AS PER SATELLITE IMAGERY, THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T 2.0.
BROKEN
LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE
CONVECTION
LAY OVER SOUTHWEST & ADJOINING WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA BETWEEN
LATITUDE 7.5ON & 12.5ON AND LONGITUDE 50.5OE & 57.5OE IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE SYSTEM. THE MINIMUM CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE IS -93OC.

A.LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL:
THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER EQUATORIAL INDIAN OCEAN AND ADJOINING
CENTRAL
PARTS OF SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL MOVED WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS AND LAY
CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL. IT IS LIKELY TO CONCENTRATE
INTO A DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL DURING NEXT 36 HOURS
AND INTENSIFY FURTHER DURING SUBSEQUENT 48 HOURS. IT IS VERY LIKELY
TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS TOWARDS SRI LANKA-SOUTH TAMIL NADU COAST
AND REACH NEAR TAMIL NADU & PUDUCHERRY COAST ON 25TH NOVEMBER
MORNING.
BROKEN LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE
CONVECTION LAY OVER EQUATORIAL INDIAN OCEAN AND ADJOINING SOUTHEAST
BAY OF BENGAL, BETWEEN LATITUDE 5.0ON & 11.0ON AND LONGITUDE 80.5OE &
88.00E
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AREA. MINIMUM CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURE
IS -93.0OC.

PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS(FORMATION OF DEPRESSION) DURING NEXT 120
HRS:

24 HOURS NIL
24-48 HOURS MOD
48-72 HOURS HIGH
72-96 HOURS HIGH
96-120 HOURS HIGH

REMARKS:

THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO) INDEX IS CURRENTLY IN PHASE 3
WITH
AMPLITUDE EQUAL TO 1. IT WILL CONTINUE IN SAME PHASE WITH AMPLITUDE
BECOMING LESS THAN 1 DURING SUBSEQUENT 4 DAYS. THUS MJO WILL SUPPORT ENHANCEMENT OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN
INCLUDING
BAY OF BENGAL (BOB) AND ARABIAN SEA (AS) FOR NEXT 5 DAYS.
A.DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHWEST ARABIAN SEA:
CONSIDERING THE SEA CONDITIONS, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) IS
AROUND 29-30OC OVER MOST PARTS OF SOUTH AND EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA
(AS).
IT IS SLIGHTLY LESS (26-28OC) OVER WESTCENTRAL & NORTH AS. HIGH TCHP
(100-120 KJ/CM2) PREVAILS OVER COMORIN AREA AND ADJOINING SOUTHWEST
BOB OFF SOUTH SRI LANKA COAST AND KERALA COAST. TCHP IS AROUND 60-80
KJ/CM2
OVER MAJOR PARTS OF SOUTH AS EXCEPT OFF NORTH SOMALIA COAST. TCHP IS
LESS THAN 50KJ/CM2 TO THE WEST OF 68OE AND NORTH 11ON OVER THE
CENTRAL &
NORTH AS AND 60 - 80 KJ/CM2 OVER REMAINING PARTS OF EASTCENTRAL &
NORTHEAST AS.

CONSIDERING THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OVER ARABIAN SEA, RELATIVE
VORTICITY
ZONE (100X10-6S-1) PREVAIL AROUND THE SYSTEM. AN AREA OF POSITIVE
DIVERGENCE 20X10-5S-1
AND AREA OF POSITIVE CONVERGENCE ZONE (10 X 10-5S-1) PREVAILS OVER
AND SOUTHWEST OF
THE SYSTEM. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS LOW TO MODERATE (10-15
KTS) OVER
AND WEST OF THE SYSTEM THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE AT 200 HPA RUNS
ALONG 15ON.

NWP MODELS SUCH AS IMD-GFS, NCEP-GFS, ECMWF, NCUM AND NEPS ARE
INDICATING
FURTHER RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE DEEP DEPRESSION IN TO CYCLONIC
STORM.
ALL MODELS ARE UNANIMOUS ABOUT WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE
SYSTEM
TOWARDS NORTH SOMALIA COAST AND THEN INTO GULF OF ADEN.

B.LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL:
CONSIDERING THE SEA CONDITIONS, SST IS AROUND 29-30OC OVER MOST PARTS
OF
BAY OF BENGAL (BOB). HIGH TCHP (120-140 KJ/CM2) PREVAILS IN THE NEAR
EQUATORIAL BELT OF NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (NIO) AND ADJOINING SOUTH BOB &
SUMATRA COAST. HIGHER TCHP (120-140 KJ/CM2) ALSO PREVAIL OFF MYANMAR
COAST AND NORTH ANDHRA PRADESH COAST (INDIA). TCHP IS 60-80 KJ/CM2
OVER
REMAINING PARTS OF BOB AND ANDAMAN SEA.

CONSIDERING THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OVER BOB, POSITIVE RELATIVE
VORTICITY (20-50X10-6S-1) PREVAILS OVER EQUATORIAL INDIAN OCEAN &
ADJOINING CENTRAL PARTS OF SOUTH BOB WITH VERTICAL EXTENSION
UPTO 500 HPA LEVEL. AREA OF POSITIVE DIVERGENCE (30X10-5S-1)
PREVAILS OVER EQUATORIAL INDIAN OCEAN & ADJOINING CENTRAL PARTS
OF SOUTH BOB. AREA OF POSITIVE CONVERGENCE ZONE (05-10 X 10-5S-1)
PREVAILS OVER THE SAME REGION. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS
MODERATE (10-20 KTS) OVER SOUTH AND ADJOINING CENTRAL BOB. THE
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 11.5ON OVER THE BOB.



NWP MODELS LIKE ECMWF, IMD GFS, NCEP GFS, GEFS, NCUM AND NEPS ARE
INDICATING INDICATING DEVELOPMENT OF DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHWEST BOB
AROUND 23RD/24TH NOVEMBER WITH LIKELY MOVEMENT TOWARDS SRILANKA-TAMIL
NADU COASTS. HOWEVER THERE IS LARGE VARIATION W.R.T. INTENSIFICATION
OF THE SYSTEM.

CONCLUSION:
CONSIDERING ALL THE ABOVE, THE EXISTING DEEP DEPRESSION OVER
SOUTHWEST ARABIAN SEA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS
AND INTENSIFY FURTHER INTO A CYCLONIC STORM OVER SOUTHWEST ARABIAN
SEA DURING NEXT 06 HOURS. AND THE EXISTING LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER
EQUATORIAL INDIAN OCEAN & ADJOINING CENTRAL PARTS OF SOUTH BOB IS
LIKELY TO CONCENTRATE INTO A DEPRESSION DURING NEXT 48 HOURS. IT IS
LIKELY TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS TOWARDS SRILANKA-TAMILNADU COASTS
DURING SUBSEQUENT 48 HOURS AND REACH TAMILNADU & PUDUCHERRY COAST
ON 25TH NOVEMBER, 2020.
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WTIN20 DEMS 262010
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 26.11.2020

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 120 HOURS ISSUED AT 2000 UTC OF 26.11.2020 BASED ON 1800 UTC OF 26.11.2020 .

DEEP DEPRESSION WEAKENED INTO A DEPRESSION OVER SOUTH COASTAL ANDHRA PRADESH AND NEIGHBOURHOOD

THE DEEP DEPRESSION OVER SOUTH RAYALASEEMA & NEIGHBOURHOOD MOVED NEARLY NORTH-NORTHWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 08 KMPH DURING PAST SIX HOURS, WEAKENED INTO A DEPRESSION AND LAY CENTRED AT 2330 HRS IST OF 26TH NOVEMBER, 2020 OVER SOUTH COASTAL ANDHRA PRADESH & NEIGHBOURHOOD NEAR LAT. 14.0N AND LONG 79.5E, ABOUT 35 KM NEARLY NORTH OF TIRUPATHI AND 70 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NELLORE. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NEARLY NORTHWARDS AND WEAKEN INTO A LOW PRESSURE AREA DURING NEXT 12 HOURS.


AS PER SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 1800 UTC OF 26TH NOVEMBER, 2020 BROKEN LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER NORTH TAMILNADU, SOUTH COASTAL ANDHRA PRADESH, RAYALSEEMA, SOUTH INTERIOR KARNATAKA AND OVER WESTCENTRAL SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL. MINIMUM CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE IS -59.00C.

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 20 KNOTS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 HPA.
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WTIN20 DEMS 011000
DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 01.12.2020
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF
BENGAL AND
ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 120 HOURS ISSUED AT 0900 UTC OF
01.12.2020 BASED ON 0600
UTC OF 01.12.2020.
SUB: DEEP DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL
THE DEEP DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHWEST AND ADJOINING SOUTHEAST BAY OF
BENGAL MOVED WESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 13 KMPH DURING PAST SIX HOURS
AND
LAY CENTERED AT 0600 UTC OF 01ST DECEMBER 2020 OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF
BENGAL
NEAR LAT. 7.8O N AND LONG. 85.3OE, ABOUT 460 KM TRINCOMALEE (434180)
AND 860 KM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KANNIYAKUMARI (433770).
IT IS VERY LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER INTO A CYCLONIC STORM DURING
NEXT
12 HOURS. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS AND CROSS SRI
LANKA
COAST BETWEEN LATITUDE 7.50N AND 9.00N CLOSE TO TRINCOMALEE DURING EVENING/NIGHT(1200-1800UTC) OF 2ND DECEMBER AS A CYCLONIC STORM WITH
A WIND
SPEED OF 75-85 KMPH GUSTING TO 95 KMPH. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE
NEARLY
WESTWARDS THEREAFTER, EMERGE INTO GULF OF MANNAR AND ADJOINING
COMORIN
AREA ON 3RD
DECEMBER MORNING. IT WOULD THEN MOVE NEARLY WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARDS AND CROSS SOUTH TAMILNADU COAST BETWEEN KANNIYAKUMARI
AND PAMBAN AROUND EARLY MORNING 2100 UTC OF 3RD TO 0000UTC OF 4TH
DECEMBER.
FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY ARE GIVEN BELOW:
DATE/TIME(UTC) POSITION MAXIMUM SUSTAINED CATEGORY OF
(LAT.ON/LONG.OE) SURFACE WIND CYCLONIC DISTURBANCE
SPEED (KMPH)
01.12.20/0600 7.8/85 55-65 GUSTING TO 75 DEEP
DEPRESSION
01.12.20/1200 7.9/84.6 60-70 GUSTING TO 75 CYCLONIC STORM 01.12.20/1800 8.1/84.0 65-75 GUSTING TO 85 CYCLONIC STORM 02.12.20/0000 8.3/83.2 70-80 GUSTING TO 90 CYCLONIC STORM 02.12.20/0600 8.5/82.4 75-85 GUSTING TO 95 CYCLONIC STORM 02.12.20/1800 8.7/80.8 70-80 GUSTING TO 90 CYCLONIC STORM 03.12.20/0600 8.8/79.7 65-75 GUSTING TO 85 CYCLONIC STORM 03.12.20/1800 8.8/78.7 70-80 GUSTING TO 90 CYCLONIC STORM 04.12.20/0600 8.2/77.5 65-75 GUSTING TO 85 CYCLONIC STORM

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KNOTS GUSTING TO 40
KNOTS.
THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 HPA. THE SEA CONDITION IS
ROUGH TO
VERY ROUGH AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE.
AS PER SATELLITE IMAGERY, THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T2.0/2.0.
CENTRE IS
BETTER DEFINED IN VISIBLE IMAGERY. BROKEN LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH
EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER SOUTH BAY OF
BENGAL
BETWEEN LAT 5.00N TO 13.00N LONG 81.00E TO 92.00E IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE SYSTEM.
MINIMUN CTT IS MINUS 930C.
PAGE 2
PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS (FORMATION OF DEPRESSION):NIL: 0%, LOW:
1-25%, FAIR: 26-50%, MODERATE: 51-75% AND HIGH: 76-100%
THIS IS A GUIDANCE BULLETIN FOR THE WMO/ESCAP PANEL MEMBER
COUNTRIES,. PLEASE VISIT RESPECTIVE NATIONAL WEBSITES FOR COUNTRY
SPECIFIC BULLETINS
STORM SURGE GUIDNACE FOR SRILANKA COAST: STORM SURGE OF ABOUT 1 METER
HEIGHT ABOVE THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE IS LIKELY TO INUNDATE LOW LYING
AREAS OF
EAST SRILANKA COAST DURING LANDFALL.
REMARKS:
CONSIDERING THE SEA CONDITIONS, SST IS AROUND 29-30OC OVER SOUTHEAST
BAY OF
BENGAL (BOB). THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HEAT POTENTIAL IS ABOUT 80-100
KJ/CM2 OVER
SOUTHWEST BOB. LOWER LEVEL POSITIVE RELATIVE VORTICITY (100X10-6S-1)
PREVAILS TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE UPPER LEVEL POSITIVE
DIVERGENCE IS
AROUND 20X10-5S-1 TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE LOWER
LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS AROUND 20 X 10-5S-1 TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE.
THESE
FEATURES INDICATE THAT ENVIRONMENTAL FEATURES ARE FAVOURABLE FOR
FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. MJO INDEX LIES IN PHASE 4 AND ITS
AMPLITUDE IS
CLOSE TO 1 HENCE FAVORABLE FOR MODERATE INTENSIFICATION OF THE
SYSTEM. THE
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE AT UPPER AND MIDDLE TROPOSPHERIC LEVELS RUNS
ALONG 12.5ON OVER THE BOB. THE SYSTEM LIES IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERRY
OF THE
ABOVE RIDGE. AS A RESULT, IT IS MOVING WEST NORTHWESTWARDS. IT IS
EXPECTED TO
BE STEERED BY THE ABOVE RIDGE RESULTING IN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
MOVEMENT
FOR NEXT 2 DAYS AND THEN NEARLY WESTWARDS. THE ABOVE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE FAVOURABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM INTO A
CYCLONIC
STORM DURING NEXT 12 HOURS. MOST OF THE NWP MODELS LIKE ECMWF, IMD
GFS,
NCEP GFS, GEFS, NCUM AND NEPS ARE INDICATING INTENSIFICATION OF THE
SYSTEM
(UPTO DEEP DEPRESSION/CYCLONIC STORM) AND WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS
MOVEMENT.
THE SYSTEM WOULD CROSS SRILANKA COAST.
THE VORTEX OVER SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN HAS MOVED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS
AND LAY NEAR 10.60S/87.10E WITH ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED OF 25
KNOTS. THESE TWO VORTICES ON EITHER SIDE OF THE EQUATOR ARE
INTERACTING
WITH EACH OTHER.
MOST OF THE NWP MODELS (IMD GFS, GEFS, NCUM, NEPS, WRF, HWRF, ECMWF)
ARE ALSO INDICATING THAT THE SYSTEM WOULD CROSS SRILANKA COAST AND
EMERGE
INTO COMORIN AREA AFTER MOVING ACROSS SRI LANKA. HOWEVER, THERE IS
LARGE
VARIATION AMONG THE MODELS AND HENCE LACK OF CONSENSUS ABOUT THE
TRACK
AND INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM OVER COMORIN AND ADJOINING AREAS. WHILE
MOST OF
THE MODELS SUGGEST WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS MOVEMENT SKIRTING SOUTH
TAMILNADU-SOUTH KERALA COASTS, A FEW MODELS ARE ALSO INDICATING THE
SYSTEM
TO TOUCH EXTREME SOUTHERN TIP OF KERALA AND TAMILNADU. ALSO THE TIME
OF
COMING CLOSER TO SOUTHERN TIP OF KERALA AND TAMILNADU VARIES LARGELY
FROM
3RD-6TH DECEMBER. CONSIDERING THE OCEANIC AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS OVER
COMORIN AREA, THE SEA CONDITIONS ARE FAVOURABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION
DUE TO
HIGHER SST (29-300C) AND HIGHER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (80-100 KJ/CM2).
THE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR OVER COMORIN AREA IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE
FAVOURING INTENSIFICATION.
ARABIAN SEA:
THE SYSTEM OVER BAY OF BENGAL AFTER MOVING ACROSS SRI LANKA IS LIKELY
TO
EMERGE INTO COMORIN AREA ON 3RD DECEMBER MORNING (0000-0300 UTC).
SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE TO INTENSE
CONVECTION LAY OVER SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA OFF SOUTH KERALA COAST
BETWEEN
LAT 5.00N TO 10.00N LONG 73.50E TO 75.50E.
PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS(FORMATION OF DEPRESSION AND ABOVE
INTENSITY
SYSTEM) DURING NEXT 120 HRS :
24 HOURS 24-48 HOURS 48-72 HOURS 72-96 HOURS 96-120 HOURS
NIL MOD MOD HIGH HIGH
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WTIN20 DEMS 031800

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 03.12.2020

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN
(THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 120 HOURS
ISSUED AT 1700 UTC OF 03.12.2020 BASED ON 1500 UTC OF 03.12.2020 .


DEEP DEPRESSION OVER GULF OF MANNAR

THE DEEP DEPRESSION OVER GULF OF MANNAR CLOSE TO RAMANATHAPURAM
DISTRICT COAST MOVED WESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 07 KMPH DURING PAST
SIX HOURS AND LAY CENTERED AT 1500 UTC OF 03RD DECEMBER OVER GULF
OF MANNAR NEAR LAT. 9.2ON AND LONG. 78.9OE CLOSE TO RAMANATHAPURAM
DISTRICT COAST, ABOUT 20 KM SOUTH OF RAMANATHAPURAM, 30 KM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PAMBAN AND 190 KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF KANNIYAKUMARI.
THE ASSOCIATED WIND SPEED IS ABOUT 55-65 GUSTING TO 75 KMPH.

THE DEEP DEPRESSION WOULD MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS AND CROSS
RAMANATHAPURAM AND THOOTHUKUDI DISTRICTS BY EARLY HOURS OF 4TH
DECEMBER WITH WIND SPEED OF 50-60 GUSTING TO 70 KMPH. IT IS VERY
LIKELY TO WEAKEN FURTHER INTO A DEPRESSION (WIND SPEED 40-50KMPH
GUSTING TO 60 KMPH) BY 4TH DECEMBER MORNING.

FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY ARE GIVEN BELOW:

DATE/TIME POSITION MAXIMUM SUSTAINED CATEGORY OF
(UTC) (LAT.ON/ LONG.OE) SURFACE WIND CYCLONIC
SPEED (KMPH) DISTURBANCE 03.12.20/1500 9.2/78.9 55-65 GUSTING TO 75 DEEP DEPRESSION

03.12.20/1800 9.1/78.5 50-60 GUSTING TO 70 DEEP DEPRESSION

04.12.20/0000 8.9/78.0 45-55 GUSTING TO 65 DEPRESSION

04.12.20/0600 8.8/77.4 40-50 GUSTING TO 60 DEPRESSION

04.12.20/1200 8.7/76.8 30-40 GUSTING TO 50 WELL MARKED LOW


THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 HPA. THE SEA CONDITION IS ROUGH TO VERY
ROUGH TO THE SYSTEM CENTRE.

AS PER SATELLITE IMAGERY, ASSOCIATED BROKEN SCATTERED TO BROKEN
LOW/MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTIVE
CLOUD LAY OVER TAMILNADU AND MODERATE TO INTENSE CONVECTION OVER
PALK STRAIT, GULF OF MANNAR & COMORIN AREA WITH MINIMUN CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURE MINUS 93 DEG CELCIUS.

REMARKS:

THE CYCLONIC STRORM BUREVI CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH LAND SURFACE
AS IT LIES VERY CLOSE TO SOUTH TAMILNADU COAST. AS AS RESULT SYSTEM
WEAKENED INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION AT 1200 UTC. AS IT WILL MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS, THIS CONTINUES LAND INTERACTION WOULD LEAD TO
FURTHER WEAKIENING INTO A DEPRESSION DURING NEXT 12 HOURS. ALSO THE
HIGH WIND SHEAR OVER THE REGION IS FAVOURING FURTHER WEAKENING OF
THE SYSTEM. THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS IS SHEARED TO THE NORTH FROM
THE LLCC. THE WINDS ARE HIGHER IN THE NORTHERN SECTOR.

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WTIN20 DEMS 041930
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 04.12.2020



SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN
(THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 120 HOURS
ISSUED AT 1930 UTC OF 04.12.2020 BASED ON 1800 UTC
OF 04.12.2020.


SUB: DEPRESSION OVER GULF OF MANNAR


THE DEPRESSION OVER GULF OF MANNAR CLOSE TO RAMANATHAPURAM
DISTRICT COAST REMAINED PRACTICALLY STATIONARY DURING PAST
24 HOURS AND LAY CENTERED AT 1800 UTC OF TODAY, THE 04TH
DECEMBER OVER GULF OF MANNAR NEAR LAT. 9.1N AND LONG. 78.6E
CLOSE TO RAMANATHAPURAM DISTRICT COAST, ABOUT 40 KM SOUTHWEST
OF RAMANATHAPURAM, 70 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PAMBAN. THE
ASSOCIATED WIND SPEED IS ABOUT 45-55 GUSTING TO 65 KMPH.



THE DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO REMAIN PRACTICALLY STATIONARY
OVER THE SAME REGION AND WEAKEN INTO A WELL MARKED LOW
PRESSURE AREA DURING NEXT 12 HOURS.



THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KNOTS. THE
ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 HPA. THE SEA CONDITION
IS ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH TO THE SYSTEM CENTRE.

AS PER SATELLITE IMAGERY, ASSOCIATED BROKEN LOW/MEDIUM CLOUDS
WITH EMBEDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLOUD LAY OVER
TAMILNADU, GULF OF MANNAR, PALK STRAIT AND COMORIN WITH MINIMUN
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE MINUS 93 DEG CELCIUS.
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WTIN20 DEMS 050900

REGIONAL SPECIALISED METEOROLOGICAL CENTRE-TROPICAL CYCLONES,
NEW DELHI SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 05.12.2020

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY
OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 120 HOURS ISSUED AT 0900
UTC OF 05.12.2020 BASED ON 0600 UTC OF 05.12.2020.


SUB: (A) DEPRESSION WEAKENED INTO WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA
OVER GULF OF MANNAR

(B) UPPER AIR CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER MALDIVES AREA OFF
SOUTH KERALA COAST


THE DEPRESSION OVER GULF OF MANNAR CLOSE TO RAMANATHAPURAM DISTRICT
COAST REMAINED PRACTICALLY STATIONARY, WEAKENED INTO A WELL MARKED
LOW PRESSURE AREA AND LAY CENTERED OVER GULF OF MANNAR AT 0600 UTC
OF TODAY, THE 05TH DECEMBER. THE ASSOCIATED WIND SPEED IS ABOUT
30-40 GUSTING TO 50 KMPH.



THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 15 KNOTS. THE
ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 HPA. THE SEA CONDITION IS ROUGH
TO VERY ROUGH AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE.

AS PER SATELLITE IMAGERY, ASSOCIATED BROKEN LOW/MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH
EMBEDED MODERATE TO INTENSE CONVECTION OVER TAMILNADU, GULF OF
MANNAR, PALK STRAIT, COMORIN AND SRI LANKA.



(B) UPPER AIR CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER LAKSHADWEEP-MALDIVES AREA
OFF SOUTH KERALA COAST

AN UPPER AIR CYCLONIC CIRCULATION LAY OVER LAKSHADWEEP-MALDIVES
AREA OFF SOUTH KERALA COAST EXTENDING UPTO 3.1. KM A.S.L. AT 0600
UTC OF TODAY, THE 5TH DECEMBER.



THIS IS THE LAST SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER, REGULAR TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL
CONTINUE FROM TOMORROW ONWARDS.
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WTIN20 DEMS 020924

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 02.04.2021

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF
BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 120 HOURS ISSUED AT 0900 UTC OF 02.04.2021 BASED ON 0600 UTC OF 02.04.2021.

BAY OF BENGAL:
THE DEPRESSION OVER NORTH ANDAMAN SEA & NEIGHBOURHOOD MOVED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS AND LAY CENTRED AT 0600 UTC OF TODAY, THE 02ND
APRIL, 2021 NEAR LATITUDE 11.2ON AND LONGITUDE 96.4OE, ABOUT 410 KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT BLAIR (43333), 430 KM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PHUKET
(48564) AND 620 KM SOUTH OF YANGON (48097). IT IS LIKELY TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS TOWARDS MYANMAR COAST. IT IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY INTO
A DEEP DEPRESSION DURING NEXT 12 HOURS.

FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY ARE GIVEN IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE:

DATE/TIME(UTC) POSITION MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
CATEGORY OF CYCLONIC
0 0
(LAT. N/ LONG. E) WIND SPEED (KMPH)
DISTURBANCE
02.04.21/0600 11.2/96.4 45-55 GUSTING TO 65
DEPRESSION
02.04.21/1800 11.8/96.7 50-60 GUSTING TO 70
DEEP DEPRESSION
03.04.21/0600 12.6/97.2 45-55 GUSTING TO 65
DEPRESSION
03.04.21/1800 13.4/97.5 40-50 GUSTING TO 60
DEPRESSION

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KNOTS GUSTING TO 35
KNOTS. THE SEA CONDITION IS ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH AROUND THE SYSTEM
CENTER. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 HPA.

AS PER INSAT-3D IMAGERY AT 0600 UTC OF 02ND APRIL, THE INTENSITY OF
THE SYSTEM IS T 1.5. THE CONVECTION IS ORGANISED AS SHEAR PATTERN.
CONVECTIVE CLOUDS CLUSTERS ARE SHEARED TO NORTH. THREE CONVECTIVE
CLOUD CLUSTERS HAVE FORMED IN THE NORTHERN SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM IN
LAST 3 HOURS. THE AREA OF VERY INTENSE CONVECTION (-93OC) LAY OVER
NORTH ANDAMAN SEA & ADJOINING ANDAMAN ISLANDS TO THE NORTH OF
SYSTEM CENTER. BROKEN LOW & MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO
VERY INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER NORTH ANDAMAN SEA AND ADJOINING
ANDAMAN ISLANDS BETWEEN LATITUDE 10. 5ON & 15.5ON AND LONGITUDE
91.0OE & 97.0OE. MINIMUM CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE IS -93OC.

REMARKS:
THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO) INDEX LIES CURRENTLY IN PHASE 5
WITH AMPLITUDE MORE THAN 1. IT WILL CONTINUE IN SAME PHASE TILL 3RD
APRIL. THEREAFTER, IT WILL MOVE TO PHASE 6 WITH AMPLITUDE REMAINING MORE
THAN 1 AND WILL REMAIN IN SAME PHASE FOR SUBSEQUENT 3 DAYS. THUS, MJO
PHASE AND AMPLITUDE WILL SUPPORT ENHANCEMENT OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER
THE ANDAMAN SEA AND ADJOINING AREAS TILL 3RD APRIL AND WILL BECOME
UNFAVOURABLE FROM 3RD ONWARDS. THUS, THE LARGE SCALE PROCESS LIKE
MJO WILL SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM TILL 3RD APRIL ONLY.

THE LOW LEVEL POSITIVE VORTICITY HAS NOT CHANGED DURING PAST 06
HOURS AND IS ABOUT 80-90 X10-6SEC-1 OVER ANDAMAN SEA TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE MAGNITUDE OF POSITIVE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE OVER THE SYSTEM AREA REMAINED SAME DURING PAST 06
HOURS (15-20 X10-5 SEC-1). THE POSITIVE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE REMAINS ORGANISED W ITH NO CHANGE IN MAGNITUDE (30X10-5 SEC-1) DURING PAST 06
HOURS AND IT LAY OVER THE SYSTEM CENTRE. IT IS COUPLED WITH THE LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE. CURRENTLY, A WEAK OUTFLOW PREVAILS IN THE
UPPER LEVELS. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS MODERATE (15-20 KTS) OVER
NORTH ANDAMAN SEA ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS, THE FAVOURABLE WIND SHEAR ZONE WOULD
CONTINUE FOR SOME MORE TIME, AIDING THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM
FURTHER INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION MARGINALLY. THEREAFTER, IT WILL
GRADUALLY ENTER INTO AN AREA OF HIGH VWS, ESPECIALLY FROM 4TH APRIL
ONWARDS. THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE RAN ALONG 13ON OVER THE BOB.
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHEAST
ASIA AND MID TROSPHERIC WESTERLIES THE DEPRESSION WOULD MOVE NORTH- NORTHEASTWARDS TOWARDS MYANMAR COAST.

THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HEAT POTENTIAL OVER THE REGION IS AROUND 80
KJ PER SEC AND THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE 29-30 DEG.C OVER THE
REGION.

THE SYSTEM IS LYING IN A FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT. A FEW MODELS
ARE INDICATING FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM DURING NEXT 12
HOURS W ITH NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS MOVEMENT TOWARDS MYANMAR COAST
AND WEAKENING THEREAFTER. HOWEVER THE PROBABILITY OF BECOMING A
CYCLONIC STORM IS VERY LOW OWING TO THE INCREASING VWS TENDENCY AND UNFAVOURABLE MJO CONDITIONS FROM 4TH ONWARDS.

CONSIDERING ALL THESE, THE DEPRESSION OVER NORTH ANDAMAN SEA IS
LIKELY TO INTENSIFY MARGINALLY INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION BY 1800 UTC OF
02ND APRIL AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN THEREAFTER. IT WOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS TOWARDS MYANMAR COAST DURING NEXT 36 HOURS.
NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED AT 1500 UTC OF 02ND APRIL 2021.
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WTIN20 DEMS 232200
REGIONAL SPECIALISED METEOROLOGICAL CENTRE-TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW
DELHI SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 23.05.2021



SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF
BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 120 HOURS ISSUED AT 2130 UTC
OF 23.05.2021 BASED ON 1800 UTC OF 23.05.2021.



SUB: DEPRESSION OVER EASTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL INTENSIFIED INTO A
DEEP DEPRESSION OVER EASTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL



THE DEPRESSION OVER EASTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL MOVED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 4 KMPH DURING PAST 6 HOURS,
INTENSIFIED INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION AND LAY CENTRED AT 1800 UTC OF
TODAY, THE 23RD MAY, 2021 NEAR LATITUDE 16.3ON AND LONGITUDE 89.7OE,
ABOUT 600 KM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT BLAIR (43333), 540 KM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PARADIP (42976), 650 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
BALASORE (42895), 630 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIGHA (42901) AND 620 KM
SOUTH OF KHEPUPARA(41984).

IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS AND INTENSIFY
INTO A CYCLONIC STORM BY 24TH MAY MORNING (AROUND 0000 UTC) AND
FURTHER INTO A VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM DURING THE SUBSEQUENT 24
HOURS. IT WOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS, INTENSIFY
FURTHER AND REACH NORTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL NEAR NORTH ODISHA AND WEST
BENGAL COASTS BY 26TH MAY MORNING (AROUND 0000 UTC). IT IS VERY
LIKELY TO CROSS NORTH ODISHA - WEST BENGAL COASTS BETWEEN
PARADIP(42976) AND SAGAR ISLANDS(42903) BY EVENING (0900-1200 UTC) OF
26TH MAY AS A VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM.

FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY ARE GIVEN IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE:

DATE/TIME(IST) POSITION MAXIMUM SUSTAINED CATEGORY OF
CYCLONIC
(LAT.ON/LONG.OE)SURFACE WIND SPEED DISTURBANCE
(KMPH)


23.05.21/1800 16.3/89.7 50-60 GUSTING TO 70 DEEP DEPRESSION

24.05.21/0000 16.7/89.6 60-70 GUSTING TO 80 CYCLONIC STORM

24.05.21/0600 17.0/89.5 70-80 GUSTING TO 90 CYCLONIC STORM

24.05.21/1200 17.3/89.4 80-90 GUSTING TO 100 CYCLONIC STORM

24.05.21/1800 17.6/89.1 100-110 GUSTING TO 120 SEVERE CYCLONIC
STORM

25.05.21/0600 18.5/88.5 120-130 GUSTING TO 145 VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC
STORM

25.05.21/1800 20.0/87.9 150-160 GUSTING TO 180 VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC
STORM

26.05.21/0600 21.3/87.3 160-170 GUSTING TO 190 VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC
STORM

26.05.21/1800 22.2/86.7 90-100 GUSTING TO 110 SEVERE CYCLONIC
STORM

27.05.21/0600 23.0/86.1 30-40 GUSTING TO 50 DEPRESSION

THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KNOTS GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS
AROUND SYSTEM CENTRE. SEA CONDITION IS ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH. THE
ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 HPA. A BUOY (23092) NEAR
17.5N/89.0E REPORTED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND OF 40O/17.5 KTS. ANOTHER
BUOY (23459) NEAR 13.8N/87.1E REPORTED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND OF
290O/21 KTS AND MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OF 1000.5 HPA.

AS PER SATELLITE IMAGERY BASED ON 1800 UTC OF TODAY, THE 23RD MAY,
THE CLOUD MASS IS ORGANISED IN SHEAR PATTERN. INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM
IS CHARACTERISED AS T 2.0. BROKEN LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED
INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER THE AREA BETWEEN LATITUDE
7.0ON & 20.0ON AND 82.0OE & 93.0OE AND ANDAMAN ISLANDS. MINIMUM CLOUD
TOP TEMPERATURE IS 93OCELCIUS.

REMARKS:

THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO) INDEX CURRENTLY LIES IN PHASE 5
WITH AMPLITUDE MORE THAN 1 AND WILL CONTINUE IN SAME PHASE TILL 24TH
MAY. THUS, MJO IS CONDUCIVE FOR ENHANCED CONVECTION OVER THE BAY OF
BENGAL (BOB) DURING NEXT 2 DAYS. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HEAT POTENTIAL
(TCHP) IS MORE THAN 100 KJ/CM2 OVER MAJOR PARTS OF BOB. IT IS
SLIGHTLY DECREASING OVER EXTREME NORTH BOB AND ALONG & OFF ANDHRA,
ODISHA, WEST BENGAL COASTS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) IS AROUND
30-310C OVER MAJOR PARTS OF BOB.

EASTERLY WINDS ARE PREVAILING IN THE UPPER LEVEL. UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
RIDGE RUNS ALONG 22.50N. A NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED LOWER LEVEL
POSITIVE VORTICITY ZONE 150X10-5 S-1 IS PREVAILING AROUND SYSTEM
CENTRE WITH VERTICAL EXTENSION UPTO 200 HPA LEVEL. A
NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED LOWER LEVEL POSITIVE CONVERGENCE ZONE
(40-50 X 10-5 S-1) LAY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF SYSTEM CENTRE AND
EAST-WEST ORIENTED ZONE OF POSITIVE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE (30-40 X
10-5 S-1) LAY OVER ENTIRE CENTRAL BOB. MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) (10-20 KTS) IS PREVAILING OVER CENTRAL & NORTH BOB TO THE NORTH
OF 15ON AND IS DECREASING BECOMING LOW (5-10 KTS) OVER NORTH BAY OF
BENGAL OFF NORTH ODISHA & WEST BENGAL COASTS. THE SEA CONDITIONS AND
EXISTING ENVIR0ONMENTAL FEATURES LIKE ENHANCED LOW LEVEL VORTICITY,
LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE, EQUATORWARD & POLEWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF THE
SYSTEM INTO A CYCLONIC STORM DURING NEXT 12 HOURS.

MOST OF THE NUMERICAL MODELS INCLUDING IMD GFS, NCEP GFS, ECMWF AND
NCUM ARE UNANIMOUSLY INDICATING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT TOWARDS
NORTH ODISHA AND WEST BENGAL COASTS. MODELS ARE UNANIMOUSLY
INDICATING RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF SYSTEM UPTO VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC
STORM CATEGORY. CONSIDERING THE MEAN MODEL GUIDANCE, THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO REACH NORTH BAY OF BENGAL NEAR NORTH ODISHA AND WEST
BENGAL COASTS AROUND 26TH MAY MORNING (AROUND 0000 UTC). IT IS VERY
LIKELY TO CROSS NORTH ODISHA AND WEST BENGAL COASTS BETWEEN
PARADIP(42976) AND SAGAR ISLANDS(42903) AROUND EVENING (0900- 1200
UTC) OF 26TH MAY.

IN VIEW OF ABOVE, IT IS INFERRED THAT THE SYSTEM IS VERY LIKELY TO
MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS AND INTENSIFY INTO A CYCLONIC STORM BY 24TH
MAY MORNING (AROUND 0000 UTC) AND FURTHER INTO A VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC
STORM DURING THE SUBSEQUENT 24 HOURS. IT WOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS, INTENSIFY FURTHER AND REACH NORTHWEST BAY OF
BENGAL NEAR NORTH ODISHA AND WEST BENGAL COASTS BY 26TH MAY MORNING
(0000-0300 UTC). IT IS VERY LIKELY TO CROSS NORTH ODISHA AND WEST
BENGAL COASTS. BETWEEN PARADIP(42976) AND SAGAR ISLANDS(42903) BY
EVENING (0900- 1200 UTC) OF 26TH MAY AS A VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM.
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