826
WTNT33 KNHC 251157
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Zeta Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
800 AM EDT Sun Oct 25 2020

...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 83.8W
ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM SSE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 MPH...0 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch for the
Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Rio Lagartos, including Cozumel.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Tulum to Rio Lagartos Mexico
* Cozumel

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Pinar del Rio Cuba

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Zeta was
located by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 17.8
North, longitude 83.8 West. Zeta is nearly stationary, but a slow
generally northwestward motion is expected later today. A turn
toward the west-northwest and an increase in forward speed are
forecast by Monday, followed by a faster northwestward motion on
Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Zeta will pass south
of western Cuba early Monday and move near or over the northern
Yucatan Peninsula or the Yucatan Channel late Monday, move into the
southern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, and reach the central Gulf of
Mexico by late Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected during the next 48 to 72
hours, and Zeta is forecast to become a hurricane by late Monday or
early Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km),
mainly southeast of the center.

The minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane Hunters is
1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Zeta can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header
WTNT43 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall bands will be expansive along and
east-northeast of Zetas track. Across portions of central and
western Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the northeast Yucatan
peninsula of Mexico, Southern Florida and the Keys, storm total
rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with local amounts of 12 inches are
possible through Wednesday.

By Wednesday, heavy rainfall associated with Zeta will begin to
affect the central Gulf Coast region, which may lead to flash
flooding in urban areas.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch
area in the Yucatan Peninsula by late Monday. Tropical storm
conditions are expected within the warning area in Cuba by Monday
morning.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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