326
WTNT33 KNHC 272040
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Zeta Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
400 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2020

...ZETA EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND STORM SURGE TO A
PORTION OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TOMORROW...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 90.3W
ABOUT 450 MI...720 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning from Intracoastal City, Louisiana, to the
Mouth of the Atchafalaya River has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Navarre Florida
* Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Pensacola Bay and Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Zeta was
located near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 90.3 West. Zeta is
moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward
the north is expected tonight, and a faster northward to north-
northeastward motion is expected on Wednesday. On the forecast
track, the center of Zeta will move over the central Gulf of Mexico
tonight. Zeta is forecast to approach the northern Gulf Coast on
Wednesday, make landfall within the hurricane warning area late
Wednesday or Wednesday night, and move across the southeastern and
eastern United States on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Zeta is forecast to become a hurricane again tonight and is
forecast to be at or near hurricane strength when it reaches the
northern Gulf Coast late Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Zeta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

STORM SURGE: Along the northern Gulf Coast, the combination of a
dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas
near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the
shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground
somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the
time of high tide...

Mouth of the Pearl River to Dauphin Island AL...5-8 ft
Port Fourchon LA to the Mouth of the Pearl River including Lake
Borgne...4-6 ft
Dauphin Island AL to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...3-5 ft
Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Port Fourchon LA...2-4 ft
AL/FL border to Navarre FL including Pensacola Bay...2-4 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...2-4 ft
Intracoastal City LA to the Mouth of the Atchafalaya River
including Vermilion Bay...1-3 ft
Navarre FL to Yankeetown FL including Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint
Andrew Bay...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane
Warning area on the northern Gulf Coast late Wednesday, with
tropical storm conditions beginning Wednesday afternoon. Tropical
storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning
area on the northern Gulf Coast by late Wednesday, and tropical
storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area
late Wednesday.

Damaging winds, especially in gusts, will spread well inland across
portions of southeast Mississippi and southern Alabama Wednesday
night.

RAINFALL: An initial area of heavy rains will begin to impact the
central Gulf Coast tonight, with the core of heavy rains spreading
north into the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic through Thursday, near
and in advance of Zeta. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with
isolated amounts of 6 inches are expected across these areas,
resulting in flash, urban, small stream, and minor river flooding.

Zeta will produce an additional 1 to 3 inches of rain across
portions of western Cuba and the northern Yucatan Peninsula through
tonight.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are expected Wednesday and Wednesday
night over southeastern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the
western Panhandle of Florida.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
--- SBBSecho 3.11-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175)