• STRMDISC: Eta 8

    From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Monday, November 02, 2020 13:14:00
    355
    WTNT44 KNHC 021456
    TCDAT4

    Hurricane Eta Discussion Number 8
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
    1000 AM EST Mon Nov 02 2020

    Eta has become an impressive November hurricane as it continues to
    undergo rapid strengthening. Visible and infrared satellite imagery
    reveals a very symmetric Central Dense Overcast with cloud top
    temperatures below -80C. A warm spot has recently become apparent in
    infrared imagery while a small eye has been seen microwave imagery
    and recent visible satellite data. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane
    Hunter aircraft that completed two center penetrations into Eta this
    morning reported a minimum pressure of around 972 mb, and flight-
    level and SFMR winds that supported an intensity of around 85 kt.
    The plane also reported a 12 n-mi-wide eye on its second pass
    through the center. With the continued improvement in organization
    since the plane departed, the initial intensity has been increased
    to 95 kt, as the eye has become more apparent. Low vertical wind
    shear and warm sea surface temperatures ahead of Eta are expected to
    allow for continued rapid strengthening during the next 12 to 24
    hours. The updated NHC intensity forecast is above all of the
    intensity aids and now calls for Eta to become a category 4
    hurricane before it nears the coast of Nicaragua. After landfall,
    Eta should quickly weaken while it moves over the mountainous
    terrain of Central America.

    The hurricane is moving westward or 265 degrees at 8 kt, a little
    slower than before. A mid-level ridge building over the
    south-central United States is expected to cause Eta to turn
    west-southwestward later today, and this motion should bring the
    center of the hurricane near the coast of Nicaragua within the
    hurricane warning area Tuesday morning. Eta is forecast to then turn
    westward, moving farther inland over Central America. The track
    guidance is tightly clustered during the first 48 hours or so, but
    the models generally show a slower forward motion than before, and
    the NHC track forecast has been adjusted accordingly. Although
    Eta's low-level center may not survive after being inland over
    Central America for so long, most of the global models depict a
    cyclone over the northwestern Caribbean Sea later this week and into
    the weekend which appears to develop from at least a part of Eta's
    remnants, and the new NHC track forecast shows the system emerging
    over the northwest Caribbean Sea after 96 h. However, the
    uncertainty in the long-range portion of the forecast remains quite
    high.

    Since Eta likely to be a very slow-moving system after it makes
    landfall in Central America, torrential rains and flooding will be
    a major threat from Eta.

    Key Messages:

    1. Eta is forecast to strengthen to a major hurricane very soon, and
    additional strengthening is likely before it reaches the
    northeastern coast of Nicaragua on Tuesday. Catastrophic wind damage
    is expected where Etas eyewall moves onshore, and preparations
    should be rushed to completion within the Hurricane Warning area.

    2. Through Friday evening, heavy rainfall from Eta will likely lead
    to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding
    across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas
    of higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible across
    Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El Salvador, southern Haiti, and the
    Cayman Islands.

    3. A potentially catastrophic and life-threatening storm surge,
    along with battering waves, is expected along portions of the
    northeastern coast of Nicaragua near and to the north of where the
    center makes landfall. Water levels could reach as high as 12 to 18
    feet above normal tide levels in some parts of the hurricane warning
    area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
    completion.

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 02/1500Z 14.8N 81.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
    12H 03/0000Z 14.4N 82.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
    24H 03/1200Z 14.0N 83.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
    36H 04/0000Z 13.9N 83.6W 90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND
    48H 04/1200Z 13.9N 84.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
    60H 05/0000Z 14.2N 85.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
    72H 05/1200Z 14.6N 87.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
    96H 06/1200Z 15.8N 87.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
    120H 07/1200Z 17.5N 86.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER

    $$
    Forecaster Brown
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