WTPQ32 RJTD 031800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.24 FOR TS 2020 ATSANI (2020)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS ATSANI IS LOCATED AT 19.5N, 128.7E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR.
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE
CENTER ARE 40KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND DRY
AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS ALMOST STATIONARY DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND
STARTING TO FORM A CURVED BAND. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE
CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN
TO THE SOUTHWEST UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN
UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH DRY AIR AND
INCREASED VWS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=
--- SBBSecho 3.11-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175)