WTPQ30 RJTD 051200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.37 FOR TS 2019 GONI (2019)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS GONI IS LOCATED AT 14.0N, 111.2E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR.
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE
CENTER ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOWER SSTS, STRONG VWS AND GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE WINDS
DATA ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89
GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL
OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH
LOWER SSTS, LOW TCHP AND LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD
INTENSITY BY FT12. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE
DATA.
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