WTPN21 PGTW 081400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.9N 134.4E TO 13.1N 129.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 081200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.1N 134.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.2N 133.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.1N 134.2E, APPROXIMATELY 111
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD, QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH FRAGMENTED FORMATIVE BANDING BEGINNING TO WRAP IN
FROM THE NORTH AND SOUTH. A 080952Z SSMIS F-17 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
SIMILARLY REVEALS THE TIGHTENING LLCC WITH THE FRAGMENTED BANDING
FEATURES TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH. A 081151Z METOP-B PARTIAL ASCAT
PASS SHOWS THE CIRCULATION TO REMAIN VERY BROAD WITH A LARGE AREA OF
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS LOCATED IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. INVEST 93W IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH EXCELLENT DUAL
CHANNEL OUTFLOW, LOW (5-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (30C)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
THAT 93W WILL QUICKLY CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NORTH- NORTHWESTWARD IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
091400Z.//
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