266
WTNT34 KNHC 112045
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Eta Advisory Number 46
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
400 PM EST Wed Nov 11 2020

...AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS THAT ETA HAS
CHANGED LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON...
...HEAVY RAINS AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WIND GUSTS CONTINUE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.3N 83.6W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM WSW OF ST. PETERSBURG FLORIDA
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Watch for portions of the west coast of Florida has
been discontinued.

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for the Dry
Tortugas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Bonita Beach to Suwanee River Florida, including Tampa Bay
and Charlotte Harbor

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bonita Beach to Suwannee River Florida

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Steinhatchee River to Suwannee River Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of the Suwannee River to Aucilla River Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 6 to 12 hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
this case within 24 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.
This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these
areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property
from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in this case within 24 hours. For a depiction of areas
at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere along the Gulf Coast of Florida should monitor
the progress of Eta.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM EST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was
located by reconnaissance aircraft, Doppler radars, and satellites
near latitude 27.3 North, longitude 83.6 West. Eta is moving
toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue overnight, followed by a turn toward the
north-northeast and northeast Thursday morning. On the forecast
track, the center of Eta will move closer to but just offshore of
the west-central coast of Florida tonight, and move inland over the
northern portion of the Florida peninsula on Thursday. Eta is
expected to move northeastward into the western Atlantic late
Thursday and early Friday.

Data from the aircraft and NOAA Doppler weather radars indicate that
maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slow weakening is expected as Eta approaches the west coast
of Florida tonight, followed by rapid weakening after landfall
occurs on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center. A wind gust to 60 mph (96 km/h) was reported this
afternoon at Punta Gorda, Florida, while a gust to 55 mph (89 km/h)
was reported St. Petersburg.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the
web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Anclote River to Boca Grande, FL including Tampa Bay...3-5 ft
Boca Grande, FL to Bonita Beach, FL including Charlotte
Harbor...2-4 ft
Steinhatchee River to Anclote River...2-4 ft
Bonita Beach to Flamingo...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall totals:

Western Cuba: an additional 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm) through
Wednesday, with isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 25
inches (765 mm).

West and central Florida, through Thursday: 2 to 4 inches, with
maximum storm total accumulations of 6 inches.

North and South Florida, through Thursday: An additional 1 to 2
inches, with isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 4 inches
in North Florida and 20 inches in South Florida.

Flash and river flooding will be possible in western Cuba through
Wednesday, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain.
Additional flash and urban flooding will be possible in South
Florida through Thursday, especially across previously inundated
areas. Flash,urban, and isolated minor river flooding is expected
across portions of West and North Florida through Thursday.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm
Warning area along the Florida west coast by this afternoon and
evening. Tropical Storm conditions are possible in the watch area
along the Florida Big Bend region by Thursday.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through tonight over parts
of western and central Florida.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the north
coast of Cuba, southern and western Florida, and the Florida Keys
during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM EST.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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