WTIO30 FMEE 121822
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 2/1/20202021
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 1

2.A POSITION 2020/11/12 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 4.7 S / 86.3 E
(FOUR DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY SIX DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1001 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 74 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/11/13 06 UTC: 5.1 S / 84.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
24H: 2020/11/13 18 UTC: 6.4 S / 81.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2020/11/14 06 UTC: 8.3 S / 79.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2020/11/14 18 UTC: 10.8 S / 76.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2020/11/15 06 UTC: 12.9 S / 74.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2020/11/15 18 UTC: 15.0 S / 73.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/11/16 18 UTC: 17.6 S / 72.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2020/11/17 18 UTC: 20.7 S / 72.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING
UP

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.0

IN THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED TO BE
MAINTAINED AROUND TROPICAL DISTURBANCE. IT HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER. THE 1525UTC ASCAT SWATH SHOWS THAT THE CIRCULATION REMAINS FAIRLY WIDE AND THAT MAXIMUM WINDS ARE HARDLY
REACHING THE GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE FAR FROM THE
CENTER. THE INTENSITY IS THEREFORE FIXED AT 25KT WITH A DVORAK
SIGNATURE THAT ASSERTS ITSELF A LITTLE MORE AT 2.0.

THE DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD, GUIDED BY THE FLOW
GENERATED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE SYSTEM SHOULD ACCELERATE ITS SOUTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. UNDER THE IMPULSE OF
THE DYNAMICS FURTHER SOUTH, THE RIDGE IS SHIFTING AND ALLOWING A
NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW FROM SUNDAY. THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THIS GLOBAL TRACK. FURTHER, THE UNCERTAINTY BECOMES MORE
IMPORTANT IN RELATION WITH THE WEAK STEERING FLOW, LETTING THE SYSTEM
MOVE MORE SLOWLY.

ON THIS TRACK, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE VERY FAVOURABLE. HOWEVER,
AS THE CIRCULATION NEAR THE CENTER IS NOT YET SOLIDLY ESTABLISHED,
THE INTENSIFICATION WILL BE REALLY EVIDENT ONLY AFTER 24 HOURS WITH A
VERY GOOD DIVERGENCE, LITTLE SHEAR AND A VERY STRONG OCEANIC
POTENTIAL. AT THE END OF THE WEEKEND, HOWEVER, CONDITIONS SHOULD
DETERIORATE WITH A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN OCEAN POTENTIAL SOUTH OF 15S
AND A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE OF THE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR, LEADING
TO AN IMPORTANT WEAKENING PHASE OF THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM WHICH
WILL HAVE REACHED THE THRESHOLD OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE.=
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