WTXS21 PGTW 150830
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.6S 66.7E TO 10.4S 72.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 150600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 8.8S 67.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S), PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.9S 66.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.8S 67.1E, APPROXIMATELY 328 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY
DEPICTS LOW LEVEL TURNING AROUND A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) THAT IS PARTIALLY OBSCURED BY CONVECTION THAT IS SHEARED TO
THE SOUTHWEST. A 150221Z SSMIS 91GHZ SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICTS LOW
LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. INVEST 93S IS IN A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT OFFSET BY HIGH (30-40 KTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS). GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT 93S WILL REMAIN AT
ITS CURRENT INTENSITY AS IT INTERACTS WITH TC 01S, AND LOSING
STRENGTH BEFORE TURNING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
160830Z.//
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