WTPQ31 RJTD 151200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.29 FOR TS 2022 VAMCO (2022)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS VAMCO IS LOCATED AT 18.1N, 106.1E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ON THE NORTHEASTSIDE OF THE CENTER ARE
35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LAND, DRY AIR AND LOW SSTS.
THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. IT
HAS ALSO WEAKENED RAPIDLY OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. INFORMATION ON
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
MOVEMENT. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT24. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT03. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
5.REMARKS
THIS WILL BE THE FINAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR THE SYSTEM.
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