039
WTNT31 KNHC 162038
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Iota Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020
400 PM EST Mon Nov 16 2020

...CATEGORY 5 IOTA CLOSING IN ON NICARAGUA...
...EXPECTED TO BRING CATASTROPHIC WINDS, LIFE-THREATENING STORM
SURGE, AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL TO CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.6N 82.7W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM ESE OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM SSE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...919 MB...27.14 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Providencia
* The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to
Sandy Bay Sirpi
* The coast of northeastern Honduras from Punta Patuca to the Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* San Andres

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Andres
* The coast of Nicaragua from south of Sandy Bay Sirpi to Bluefields
* The northern coast of Honduras from west of Punta Patuca to the Guatemala/Honduras border
* Bay Islands

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should have already been completed.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the
progress of Iota.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM EST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Iota was located
near latitude 13.6 North, longitude 82.7 West. Iota is moving toward
the west near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is forecast
through landfall. After landfall, a westward to west-southwestward
motion is expected. On the forecast track, the core of Iota will
make landfall within the hurricane warning area in northeastern
Nicaragua tonight, and dissipate over central America by Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher
gusts. Iota is forecast to continue to be a catastrophic category 5
hurricane when it approaches Central America tonight, and rapid
weakening is expected after landfall.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km). Puerto Cabezas airport in Nicaragua recently reported
sustained winds of 44 mph (71 km/h) with a gust to 68 mph (109
km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 919 mb (27.14 inches)
based on Air Force reconnaissance data.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Iota can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 15 to 20 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds along the coast of Nicaragua and Honduras. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

WIND: Catastrophic wind damage is expected where Iota's eyewall
moves onshore within the Hurricane Warning area in Nicaragua tonight
with tropical storm conditions already ongoing. Hurricane conditions
are likely on the island of Providencia for the next few hours.
Tropical storm conditions are likely on the island of San
Andres for the next several hours. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area in Nicaragua and will
begin in the Tropical Storm Warning area in Honduras tonight.

RAINFALL: Iota is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Thursday:

Honduras, northern Nicaragua, southeast Guatemala and southern
Belize: 10 to 20 inches (250 to 500 mm). Isolated maximum totals of
30 inches (750 mm) will be possible, especially from northeast
Nicaragua into northern Honduras.

El Salvador and Panama: 6 to 10 inches (150 to 250 mm), with
isolated maximum totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

This rainfall would lead to significant, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher
terrain.

Southern Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm),
with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches (250 mm).

SURF: Swells generated by Iota will affect much of the coast of
Central America, the Yucatan Peninsula, Jamaica, and Colombia during
the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM EST.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Blake
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