WTIO21 PGTW 210800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95A)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.0N 59.5E TO 11.0N 52.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 210600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.0N 59.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.9N 60.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 59.3E, APPROXIMATELY 323
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SOCOTRA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING INTO A PARTIALLY
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 210621Z METOP-B 89GHZ
SATELLITE IMAGE REVEALS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. A 210504Z ASCAT-A PASS REVEALS 30-35KT WINDS
IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE WITH 15-20KT WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE. INVEST 95A IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
WITH LOW (<15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM
(27-28C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE INVEST 95A
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
220800Z.//
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