WTIO31 PGTW 212100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (THREE) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/210751ZNOV2020//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (THREE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211800Z --- NEAR 10.8N 55.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.8N 55.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 10.6N 53.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 10.5N 51.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 10.7N 49.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 10.9N 47.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
212100Z POSITION NEAR 10.8N 55.0E.
21NOV20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 634
NM EAST OF ADEN, YEMEN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS SYMMETRICAL, FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OVER TOP OF THE
OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION
IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON TWO ASCAT BULLSEYE PASSES,
AT 211612Z AND 211727Z AND A WELL-DEFINED LOW EMISSIVITY REGION
EVIDENT IN TH 211725 AMSU-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE 211612Z ASCAT-
A BULLSEYE SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATES A SWATH OF 35-40 KNOT WINDS
ARRAYED ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION, WITH 30-35 KNOTS
ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN AND NORTHEASTERN QUADRANTS. THE MOST
RECENT PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS)
LENDS ADDITIONAL SUPPORT TO THE INITIAL INTENSITY. WITH LOW (5-10
KNOTS) VWS, LUKEWARM (27-28 DEG C) AND MODERATE WESTWARD AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, THE ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTS SOME MINIMAL NEAR-TERM INTENSIFICATION. TC 03A IS TRACKING JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER STR OVER THE SOUTHERN ARABIAN
PENINSULA. TC 03A IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24, BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE
NORTHEAST SOMALI COAST NEAR RAS HAFUN, BEFORE SHIFTING TO A WEST-
NORTHWEST TRACK AFTER LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSITY
SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS TO A PEAK OF 40 KNOTS, BEFORE
WEAKENING SLIGHTLY BEFORE LANDFALL DUE TO INCREASED VWS AND COOLER
WATERS. AFTER LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN
OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF THE NORTHEAST SOMALIA, DISSIPATING AS A
TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR
AGREEMENT WITH THE EGRR AND ECMWF DEPICTING A TRACK ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COAST OF SOMALIA WHILE THE NAVGEM AND GFS SOLUTIONS MOVE
THE VORTEX SOUTHWARD, PARALLEL TO THE EAST COAST OF SOMALIA AND LOSE
THE VORTEX ALTOGETHER BY TAU 48. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK LIES CLOSE
TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220300Z, 220900Z,
221500Z AND 222100Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 210800).//
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