WTIO21 PGTW 221530
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 97B)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.9N 85.6E TO 10.7N 82.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 221500Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 8.2N 85.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.5N 85.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.2N 85.4E, APPROXIMATELY 423 NM
SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 220800Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEAL A BROAD
CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH FORMATIVE BANDING IN THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD
POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (<15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 97B WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AND
INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD INDIA OVER THE NEXT 24-
36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
231530Z.//
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