WTIO32 PGTW 242100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (NIVAR) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (NIVAR) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z --- NEAR 10.1N 82.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.1N 82.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 10.6N 81.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 11.4N 80.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 12.5N 79.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 13.0N 79.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 14.0N 77.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
24NOV20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04B (NIVAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
821 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS SPIRAL BANDS OF CONVECTION THAT WRAP
INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WHICH CONTINUES TO BE
OBSCURED BY DEEP, FLARING CONVECTION. ANALYSIS OF STORM MOVEMENT
IN THE EIR LOOP REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM TRACK HAS REMAINED QUASI-
STATIONARY OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE BANDING CONVECTION FEATURES IN
THE EIR LOOP AND IN A 241622Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 50 KTS IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN A PGTW DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KTS) AND SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN
A CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF
T3.8 (59 KTS) AND A DEMS DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.5
(55 KTS). THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST AND
THROUGH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS), ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). TC NIVAR IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TRACKING GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST DIGS INTO AND WEAKENS THE AFOREMENTIONED STR. THE SYSTEM
WILL REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 70 KTS BY TAU 36, AT WHICH POINT IT
WILL MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF INDIA, SOUTH OF
CHENNAI AND RAPIDLY WEAKEN TO 45 KTS BY TAU 48. THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS TO THE NORTHWEST AND DISSIPATE OVER
LAND BY TAU 72. THE REMNANTS OF TC 04B MAY TRACK OVER THE ARABIAN
SEA THEREAFTER, HOWEVER, THERE IS LOW PROBABILITY OF REGENERATION.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24 WITH
A SPREAD OF 100 NAUTICAL MILES AT LANDFALL. AFTERWARDS, THIS
AGREEMENT BECOMES POOR AS THE SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGES
TO 420 NAUTICAL MILES BY TAU 72. THIS INCREASING SPREAD IS LARGELY
DUE TO UKMET AND UKMET ENSEMBLE MODEL SOLUTIONS WHICH TURN THE
SYSTEM SHARPLY TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND KEEP IT OVER THE BAY OF
BENGAL. MODEL GUIDANCE LENDS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK WHICH IS PLACED JUST SOUTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO
OFFSET THE UKMET TRACKS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
241800Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250300Z, 250900Z, 251500Z
AND 252100Z.
NNNN
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