WTIO32 PGTW 252100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (NIVAR) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (NIVAR) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251800Z --- NEAR 12.0N 80.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.0N 80.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 12.9N 79.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 13.6N 78.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 14.0N 77.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
252100Z POSITION NEAR 12.2N 79.8E.
25NOV20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04B (NIVAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
794 NM SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION
OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION
USING A 251601Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE AND THE EIR. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KTS IS BASED ON RECENT MULTI-AGENCY
PGTW/DEMS DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0-4.5 (65-77
KTS). THE SYSTEM IS CONTINUING TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE
NORTHEAST AND THROUGH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (10-15
KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND
WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). SINCE THE
INITIAL POSITION, TC NIVAR MAY HAVE TRACKED OVER LAND, MAKING
LANDFALL SOUTH OF CHENNAI. THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD
STEADILY WEAKENING DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE UNDERLYING
TERRAIN AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. FULL DISSIPATION IS
ANTICIPATED BY TAU 36 AND THERE IS LOW PROBABILITY OF THE
SYSTEM REGENERATING OVER THE ARABIAN SEA. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 12. UKMET AND UKMET
ENSEMBLE MODEL SOLUTIONS TRACK THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD WHILE THE
OTHER MODELS TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. OVERALL, MODEL GUIDANCE LENDS GOOD CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS PLACED JUST SOUTH OF AND
SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE
UKMET TRACKS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 252100Z IS
24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260300Z, 260900Z, 261500Z AND 262100Z.//
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