WTIO32 PGTW 260300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (NIVAR) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (NIVAR) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260000Z --- NEAR 12.3N 79.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.3N 79.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 13.0N 78.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 13.6N 78.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
260300Z POSITION NEAR 12.5N 79.3E.
26NOV20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (NIVAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 804
NM SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
HAS MOVED OVER LAND AND REMAINS OBSCURED BY DEEP CONVECTION. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON A TIMELY
252335Z GMI 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE AND THE MSI. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 55 KTS IS BASED ON AN UNOFFICIAL PGTW DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.5 (55 KTS) AND A WEAKENING TREND FROM A
252049Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 58 KTS. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST. TC NIVAR IS TRACKING OVER LAND AND
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD, STEADILY WEAKENING UNTIL
DISSIPATION AROUND TAU 24. THERE IS LOW PROBABILITY OF THIS SYSTEM
REGENERATING OVER THE ARABIAN SEA. OVERALL, MODEL GUIDANCE LENDS
GOOD CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR
HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
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