WTIO31 PGTW 042100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (BUREVI) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (BUREVI) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z --- NEAR 9.0N 79.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 9.0N 79.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 9.0N 78.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
042100Z POSITION NEAR 9.0N 79.3E.
04DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (BUREVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF COLOMO, SRI LANKA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION AND LOW-
LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING INTO AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE
BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION OF PREVIOUS MICROWAVE IMAGERY, INCLUDING A
041615Z AMSU-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE PASS, WHICH SHOWED CONVECTIVE BANDS
WRAPPING INTO A WEAKLY DEFINED CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KTS
IS ASSESSED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE AND IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY ABOVE A DEMS
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T1.5 (25 KTS) BASED ON A HIGHER
CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KTS),
WHICH SEEMS A BIT UNREALISTIC BASED ON THE OVERALL STRUCTURE. TC 05B
IS TRACKING SLOWLY WESTWARD WITHIN A COL REGION WITHIN THE STR LOCATED
TO THE NORTH. WHILE THE SSTS ARE VERY WARM IN THE BAY OF MANNAR, THE COMBINATION OF RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND MODERATE (15-20
KTS) IS CONTRIBUTING TO THE OVERALL WEAKENING TREND OBSERVED OVER THE
PREVIOUS 12 HOURS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT 12 HOURS, AND THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE BAY OF MANNAR BY TAU 12.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN
PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z IS 9 FEET.//
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