WTIO30 FMEE 061230
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 2/3/20202021
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 3

2.A POSITION 2020/12/06 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.5 S / 86.2 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY SIX DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 370 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2020/12/07 00 UTC: 13.6 S / 83.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 10 SE: 220 SW: 95 NW: 55

24H: 2020/12/07 12 UTC: 14.4 S / 81.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 45 SE: 260 SW: 130 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 35 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 65

36H: 2020/12/08 00 UTC: 15.8 S / 78.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 280 SW: 130 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 65

48H: 2020/12/08 12 UTC: 17.2 S / 77.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 45 SE: 205 SW: 85 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 35 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 65

60H: 2020/12/09 00 UTC: 18.6 S / 76.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 140 SW: 95 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 85 NW: 100

72H: 2020/12/09 12 UTC: 19.3 S / 75.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 45 SE: 100 SW: 65 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 35 SE: 95 SW: 55 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/12/10 12 UTC: 19.3 S / 72.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

120H: 2020/12/11 12 UTC: 19.4 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.0+

THE AMRS2 PASS OF 0807UTC ALLOWED US TO NOTE THAT THE MODELS LOCATE
THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TOO FAR WEST. DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CONTINUED TO SHOW A FLUCTUATING CHARACTER
ALTHOUGH MAINTAINING A CURVED BAND CONFIGURATION. THE MORE NOTICEABLE
EXTENSION OF THE CURVED BAND SUGGESTS A FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF
THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE, BUT FOR THE MOMENT THE DVORAK ESTIMATE
LEAVES THE SYSTEM IN A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE.

THE MODELS LOCATE THE POSITION OF THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE A LITTLE
BETTER, ALTHOUGH STILL A LITTLE TOO FAR WEST. THE FORECASTED TRACK
KEEPS A SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION DUE TO THE GRADUAL INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FURTHER SOUTH, UNTIL THE NIGHT OF MONDAY TO
TUESDAY. WITH THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH, THE TRACK TAKES
A TEMPORARY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERN COMPONENT BEFORE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
IMPOSES AGAIN A WESTERLY TRACK. THE PRESENT TRACK HAS BEEN REVISED
FURTHER SOUTH COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO THE STRONGER
INFLUENCE OF THE TRACK ON TUESDAY.

DURING THIS DISPLACEMENT, THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 03 CONTINUES TO
BENEFIT FROM A PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION DURING NEARLY 36 HOURS, IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT (LOW WIND SHEAR, SUFFICIENT ALTITUDE
DIVERGENCE, AVAILABLE OCEANIC POTENTIAL). UNDER THESE CONDITIONS,
SYSTEM 03 SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH THE THRESHOLD OF MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM ON MONDAY. THEREAFTER, THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES BUT IT
IS MAINLY DRY AIR THAT GENERATES CONVECTION. THIS MARKS THE BEGINNING
OF THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM WHICH WILL TRANSIT NORTH OF THE
MASCARENE ISLANDS IN A REMNANT LOW CONFIGURATION.
=
--- SBBSecho 3.11-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175)