WTXS32 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/070521ZDEC2020//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 11.0S 108.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 075 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND EXTRAPOLATION
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.0S 108.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 11.7S 109.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 13.0S 111.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 14.5S 112.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 16.6S 115.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 22.0S 121.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 27.1S 125.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 11.2S 108.8E.
08DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
750 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PERSISTENT DEEP
CONVECTION OVERHEAD A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 081840Z
GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH DEFINED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE
LLCC LENDS GOOD CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. A 081446Z ASCAT-
B IMAGE DEPICTS A TIGHT CIRCULATION WITH A SWATH OF 40-45 KT WINDS
WITH A FEW 45-49KT WINDS EMBEDDED TO THE NORTH OF THE LLCC.
THEREFORE, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AS 45 KTS BASED ON THIS
ASCAT DATA. TC 03S IS TRACKING THROUGH A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE (15-20
KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). FURTHERMORE, THE SYSTEM IS EXPERIENCING SOME
CONVERGENT FLOW ALONG ITS EQUATORWARD PERIPHERY. TC 03S IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG AN EXTENSION OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED EAST OF THE SYSTEM. IN THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENT, TC 03S
HAS LIMITED TIME FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY
OF 50 KTS BY TAU 12. AFTERWARDS, PERSISTENT VWS AND DECREASING UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS
TOWARDS AUSTRALIA. AS THE STR REORIENTS AROUND TAU 36, TC 03S SHOULD
BEGIN TO ACCELERATE ALONG TRACK AND IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL
AROUND TAU 60. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS
INLAND WITH FULL DISSIPATION OVER LAND EXPECTED BY TAU 96. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER THAT, THE
SOLUTIONS SLOWLY DIVERGE TO A SPREAD OF 294 NM BY TAU 72.
SPECIFICALLY, THE GFS SOLUTION TRACKS FURTHER EASTWARD THAN THE
MAJORITY OF MODEL GUIDANCE. BASED ON THIS SPREAD, THERE IS OVERALL
FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH LIES NEAR THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 14
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z, 090900Z, 091500Z AND 092100Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BONGOYO) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR UPDATES.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS22 PGTW 080530).//
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