Pacific-SW: TC06P W2
From
Weather Alert@21:1/175 to
All on Sunday, December 13, 2020 18:33:00
WTPS32 PGTW 132100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (SIX) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (SIX) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
131800Z --- NEAR 17.7S 173.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.7S 173.8W
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 18.3S 174.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 18.7S 174.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 19.4S 173.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 10 KTS
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EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 20.6S 171.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 24.8S 167.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
132100Z POSITION NEAR 17.8S 173.9W.
13DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (SIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 237 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF NIUE, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
RECENT SATELLITE FIXES FROM VARIOUS REPORTING AGENCIES AND 131810Z
SSMIS IMAGERY, WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS
CONSISTENT WITH SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.5 FROM KNES AND
PGTW. TC 06P HAS TURNED POLEWARD OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. THIS STEERING
RIDGE IS REORIENTING AND RECEDING EASTWARD AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
TO THE SOUTH AMPLIFIES. WITH THE REORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE,
STEERING FLOW WILL WEAKEN, AND THE FORWARD TRACK SPEED FOR TC 06P IS
EXPECTED TO SLOW OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER, A DEVELOPING
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY AND APPROACH TC 06P FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THE CYCLONE WILL ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE DEVELOPING TROUGH AND RIDGING TO THE NORTHEAST AND
COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION, BY TAU 72, AS IT MERGES WITH THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW PATTERN. ONLY MODEST INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED
IN THE NEAR-TERM UNDER THE INFLUENCES OF FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW
ALOFT, MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND MARGINALLY
SUPPORTIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27-28C). AFTER TAU 48,
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL DRIVE A WEAKENING TREND,
ALTHOUGH BAROCLINIC INTERACTIVE WILL BEGIN TO SUPPORT STORM
INTENSITY AROUND THAT POINT. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
OVERALL AGREEMENT AND CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK IS
HIGH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 140300Z, 140900Z, 141500Z AND 142100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 05P (YASA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
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