• Pacific-SW: TC06P W2

    From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Sunday, December 13, 2020 18:33:00
    WTPS32 PGTW 132100
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (SIX) WARNING NR 002//
    RMKS/
    1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (SIX) WARNING NR 002
    02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
    WARNING POSITION:
    131800Z --- NEAR 17.7S 173.8W
    MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
    POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
    POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
    PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    REPEAT POSIT: 17.7S 173.8W
    ---
    FORECASTS:
    12 HRS, VALID AT:
    140600Z --- 18.3S 174.3W
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
    24 HRS, VALID AT:
    141800Z --- 18.7S 174.4W
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
    36 HRS, VALID AT:
    150600Z --- 19.4S 173.5W
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
    EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
    48 HRS, VALID AT:
    151800Z --- 20.6S 171.8W
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
    RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
    72 HRS, VALID AT:
    161800Z --- 24.8S 167.7W
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    EXTRATROPICAL
    RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
    REMARKS:
    132100Z POSITION NEAR 17.8S 173.9W.
    13DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (SIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 237 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF NIUE, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08
    KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
    RECENT SATELLITE FIXES FROM VARIOUS REPORTING AGENCIES AND 131810Z
    SSMIS IMAGERY, WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS
    CONSISTENT WITH SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.5 FROM KNES AND
    PGTW. TC 06P HAS TURNED POLEWARD OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS UNDER THE
    STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. THIS STEERING
    RIDGE IS REORIENTING AND RECEDING EASTWARD AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
    TO THE SOUTH AMPLIFIES. WITH THE REORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE,
    STEERING FLOW WILL WEAKEN, AND THE FORWARD TRACK SPEED FOR TC 06P IS
    EXPECTED TO SLOW OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER, A DEVELOPING
    MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY AND APPROACH TC 06P FROM THE
    SOUTHWEST. THE CYCLONE WILL ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE GRADIENT
    BETWEEN THE DEVELOPING TROUGH AND RIDGING TO THE NORTHEAST AND
    COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION, BY TAU 72, AS IT MERGES WITH THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW PATTERN. ONLY MODEST INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED
    IN THE NEAR-TERM UNDER THE INFLUENCES OF FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW
    ALOFT, MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND MARGINALLY
    SUPPORTIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27-28C). AFTER TAU 48,
    INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL DRIVE A WEAKENING TREND,
    ALTHOUGH BAROCLINIC INTERACTIVE WILL BEGIN TO SUPPORT STORM
    INTENSITY AROUND THAT POINT. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
    OVERALL AGREEMENT AND CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK IS
    HIGH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
    WARNINGS AT 140300Z, 140900Z, 141500Z AND 142100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
    CYCLONE 05P (YASA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
    NNNN
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