WTPS13 NFFN 132100
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER C4 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
DEC 132102 UTC.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD03F CENTRE [1002HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4S
173.4W AT 131800 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 IR IMAGERY
AND PERIPHERY SURFACE REPORTS.
TD03F MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 03 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE
WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 30 KNOTS. DEPRESSION
INTENSIFYING.
DEEP CONVECTION REMAINED PERSISTENT OVER LLCC. ORGANISATION HAS
SLIGHTLY IMPROVED WITH PRIMARY BANDS TRYING TO WRAP ONTO LLCC. SYSTEM
LIES UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE IN A MODERATE UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE WITH
GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE AND OUTFLOW. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO
500HPA. SST IS AROUND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON
CURVED PATTERN, WITH 0.40 WRAP ON LOG 10 SPIRAL, YIELDING DT=2.5. MET
AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT THUS, YIELDING T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS.
GLOBAL MODELS DEVELOP THE DEPRESSION AND MOVE IT SOUTHWEST BEFORE
MOVING IT SOUTHEASTWARD.
THE POTENTIAL FOR TD02F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 140600 UTC 18.2S 174.0W MOV SW AT 05 KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 141800 UTC 18.7S 173.8W MOV SSW AT 03 KT WITH 35
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 150600 UTC 19.4S 172.7W MOV SSE AT 03 KT WITH 40
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 151800 UTC 20.5S 171.0W MOV SE AT 05 KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TD03F WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
1402000 UTC OR EARLIER.
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