WTPS31 PGTW 132100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z --- NEAR 15.7S 172.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7S 172.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 15.8S 171.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 15.5S 171.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 15.1S 171.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 14.8S 171.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 15.2S 173.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 17.1S 176.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 20.1S 178.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
132100Z POSITION NEAR 15.7S 172.1E.
13DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 259 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED,
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE, ON RECENT FIXES FROM VARIOUS REPORTING AGENCIES
AND 131629Z SSMIS IMAGERY SHOWING A COMPACT MICROWAVE EYE.
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.0 (45 KTS) TO T4.0 (65
KTS) AND EARLIER AUTOMATED SATELLITE INTENSITY CONSENSUS DATA
SUPPORT THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 55 KTS. TC 05P IS TRACKING SLOWLY
WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. OVER THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS, THE PRIMARY
STEERING MECHANISM WILL TRANSITION FROM THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE
TO A BUILDING NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE EXTENSION TO THE NORTHEAST.
DURING THIS STEERING TRANSITION PERIOD, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
LOOP EASTWARD, AND WILL EVENTUALLY TURN SOUTHEASTWARD AFTER TAU 72
AS RIDGING TO THE NORTHEAST DOMINATES STEERING. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN BROAD AGREEMENT WITH THIS OVERALL SCENARIO, BUT
DEPICTIONS OF THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE PENDING LOOP AND
SUBSEQUENT TRACK VARY SIGNIFICANTLY. THE GFS AND GEFS ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS LIE WELL TO THE WEST OF FIJIAN ISLANDS, WHILE THE UKMET
SOLUTION LIES ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE ISLAND GROUP. THE ECMWF DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS LIE NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE
ENVELOPE. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS, AND LIES SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE PREVIOUS JTWC FORECAST.
GIVEN NOTED MODEL SPREAD, TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND
FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE ANTICIPATED AS THE COMPLEX STEERING
PATTERN EVOLVES. STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY IN THE NEAR-TERM
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (5-10 KTS) AND PASSAGE OVER VERY WARM WATER (28-29C).
SLIGHT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED BY TAU 120 AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
BEGINS TO INCREASE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 19
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140300Z, 140900Z, 141500Z AND 142100Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (SIX) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
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