WTPS31 PGTW 161500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA) WARNING NR 017
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161200Z --- NEAR 15.2S 175.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2S 175.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 16.1S 177.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 17.4S 179.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 18.9S 179.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 20.1S 179.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 22.4S 179.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 24.5S 179.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 26.0S 177.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
161500Z POSITION NEAR 15.4S 176.0E.
16DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05P (YASA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
237 NM NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SPIRAL BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING
INTO A 20 NM EYE WITH TRANSVERSE BANDING ALONG THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE POSITION OF THE EYE IN THE EIR LOOP. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 140 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON
MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T7.0 (140 KTS,
PGTW AND KNES) AND A CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T6.8 (135 KTS). TC YASA IS TRACKING ALONG
THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED
TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THROUGH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM
(28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), LOW (10-15 KTS)
VWS, AND ROBUST POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. CONTINUED
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TC YASA TO MAINTAIN
AN INTENSITY OF 140 KTS THROUGH TAU 12. THEREAFTER, VWS WILL
INCREASE, LEADING TO A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM. TC YASA
WILL TRACK ALONG THE WEST COAST OF VANUA LEVU, FIJI BETWEEN TAU 12
AND TAU 24 AND WEAKEN TO 125 KTS BY THAT TIME. THEREAFTER,
MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VWS WILL LEAD TO FURTHER WEAKENING TO 100 KTS
BY TAU 48. AT THIS TIME, TC YASA WILL BEGIN TO TRACK ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN STR POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH AS THE CURRENT
STEERING RIDGE WEAKENS DUE TO INTERACTION WITH AN INCOMING
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH FROM THE WEST. THIS CHANGE IN STEERING WILL
RESULT IN A GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. INCREASING VWS WILL LEAD TO FURTHER WEAKENING
TO 80 KTS BY TAU 72 AND HIGH (30+ KTS) VWS THEREAFTER, COUPLED WITH
COOL (< 26 CELSIUS) SST, WILL FURTHER WEAKEN THE SYSTEM TO 40 KTS
BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT
WITH A 75 NM SPREAD IN ACROSS TRACK MODEL SOLUTIONS AT TAU 24 THAT
INCREASES TO 630 NM BY TAU 120. THE MODEL TRACK ENVELOPE IS BOUND
BY THE GFS SOLUTIONS TO THE WEST AND THE ECMWF SOLUTIONS TO THE
EAST WITH THE UKMET, GALWEM, AND NAVGEM SOLUTIONS CLOSER TO THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR
CONSENSUS. WHILE THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK BRINGS THE SYSTEM CENTER
BETWEEN THE ISLANDS OF VITI LEVU AND VANUA LEVU, THE SPREAD IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS PRESENTS THE POSSIBILITY OF LANDFALL ON EITHER ISLAND WITH
THE GFS AND NAVGEM SOLUTIONS TRACKING OVER VITI LEVU AND ECMWF,
UKMET, AND GALWEM MODELS PROVIDING TRACKS THAT BRING THE VORTEX OVER
VANUA LEVU. THIS SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS LENDS HIGH CONFIDENCE TO
THE INITIAL PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK THROUGH TAU 24 AND
LOW CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER AS THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
162100Z, 170300Z, 170900Z AND 171500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P
(ZAZU) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING.//
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