WTPN31 PGTW 221500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W (KROVANH) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W (KROVANH) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221200Z --- NEAR 7.6N 109.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 7.6N 109.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 7.5N 108.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 7.4N 106.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
221500Z POSITION NEAR 7.6N 109.4E.
22DEC20. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W (KROVANH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
266 NM SOUTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FRAGMENTED AND FLARING CONVECTION
SHEARED APPROXIMATELY 90NM NORTHWEST OF A WEAK, RAGGED, ELONGATED,
AND PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE LLC IN THE EIR
LOOP THAT LINED UP WELL WITH A RAGGED BUT DEFINED LLC IN THE 221100Z
AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25KTS, CLASSIFIED AS
TOO WEAK BY PGTW, IS BASED ON SURFACE WIND AND SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
OBSERVATIONS FROM HUYEN TRAN ISLAND, 55NM TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST.
A NARROW SWATH OF ELEVATED 30-35KT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST ASSOCIATED
WITH CONVERGENCE INDUCED BY A WIND SURGE IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AND
COMPRESSED ALONG THE VIETNAMESE COAST ARE UNDER THE SHEARED
CONVECTION. TD KROVANH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW-LEVEL STR TO THE NORTHWEST AND IS
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS INTO INCREASING VWS AND
DIMINISHING UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 12.
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING FAIR CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY
THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 221200Z IS 13 FEET.//
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