WTXS31 PGTW 272100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CHALANE) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CHALANE) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z --- NEAR 19.2S 45.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2S 45.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 20.0S 43.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 20.2S 42.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 20.2S 40.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 20.2S 38.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 20.2S 33.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 20.3S 27.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
272100Z POSITION NEAR 19.4S 45.2E.
27DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (CHALANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
109 NM WEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS EXPANSIVE DEEP CONVECTION OVER
THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF AN OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. A
271411Z SSMIS 91GHZ COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE AND A 271813Z MHS
89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO A RAGGED BUT DEFINED CENTER, WHICH
SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. MICROWAVE
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO REVEAL AN ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE
DESPITE THE RECENT TRACK OVER THE RUGGED, MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF
MADAGASCAR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS CONSERVATIVELY ASSESSED AT 30
KNOTS CONSISTENT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED BANDING STRUCTURE. TC 07S
IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED EAST OF MADAGASCAR BUT IS
FORECAST TO TRANSITION TO THE WESTWARD STEERING INFLUENCE OF A STR
POSITIONED SOUTH OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A 70-80NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS FROM TAU
24 TO TAU 60, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. TC
07S IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INTENSIFY UNDER FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
CONDITIONS OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SST (30-32C) AFTER
TRACKING OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL NEAR TAU 12. THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY IN THE PEAK INTENSITY WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR A SHORT
PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION AFTER TAU 24. THE PEAK INTENSITY HAS
BEEN INCREASED TO 65 KNOTS AT TAU 48 WITH POTENTIAL FOR A HIGHER
INTENSITY BEFORE LANDFALL NEAR TAU 66, SOUTH OF BEIRA. THE ECMWF AND
GFS ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) WITH HWRF ALSO INDICATING RI. NEXT WARNINGS AT
280900Z AND 282100Z.//
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