ACUS11 KWNS 302249
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302248
LAZ000-TXZ000-310115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1890
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0448 PM CST Wed Dec 30 2020

Areas affected...southeast Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 302248Z - 310115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Shallow convection ongoing over southeast Texas may rotate
at times, with a low chance of a brief/weak tornado or strong wind
gust.

DISCUSSION...Scattered shallow storms persist over southeast Texas
ahead of a cold front extending from Shreveport to just northwest of
the Houston metro as of 2230Z. These cells are within a low-level
warm/moist advection regime where dewpoints have risen solidly into
the middle 60s F.

Given currently observed storm motions around 180/25 kt, modified
VWP hodographs indicate marginal levels of SRH for a tornado threat
(around 75-100 m2/s2 0-1km). Modified forecast soundings indicate
that parcels are surface-based, but with minimal MLCAPE, and, with
an inversion around 600 mb. Given the northward motion of the cells,
it appears little rightward propagation is occurring at this time
(which would increase SRH).

While a brief/weak tornado cannot be ruled out with the stronger
cells given sufficient shear, the overall severe threat appears low.
Any minor threat will subside once the cold front passes, rendering
cells elevated.

..Jewell/Edwards.. 12/30/2020

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!v-tfZPAORmyK9A6eXZSaSxsQqSz7TfSCOrRhtZeSKsiZrCk_CAR_tKEJ4wCdY5-qPAfUYeTr$
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON 28409618 28379680 28869690 29729638 30549550 31399485
31839425 31679383 30899356 29619396 29189475 28409618
#
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ACUS11 KWNS 271904
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271904
FLZ000-GAZ000-272100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0040
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0104 PM CST Wed Jan 27 2021

Areas affected...Northern FL into far southeast GA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 271904Z - 272100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...The threat for locally damaging wind and perhaps a tornado
continues this afternoon. Watch issuance remains unlikely due to the
isolated nature of the threat.

DISCUSSION...At 19Z, the thunderstorm cluster which earlier produced
a tornado in the Tallahassee area is moving eastward along the I-10
corridor in northern FL. This cluster has weakened slightly compared
to 1-2 hours ago, as it has moved into a slightly cooler and less
unstable airmass. However, effective shear of 40-50 kt remains more
than sufficient to support occasional upticks in convective
organization, and this cluster will continue to pose a threat of
isolated damaging wind and perhaps a tornado as it moves eastward
this afternoon and interacts with a surface boundary that is slowly
sagging southward out of far southern GA. Surface observations
indicate that slightly greater warming/destabilization has occurred
across northeast FL, which could support some severe threat to the
coast as the cluster continues eastward. However, given the
localized and generally marginal nature of the threat, watch
issuance remains unlikely.

..Dean/Hart.. 01/27/2021

ATTN...WFO...JAX...

LAT...LON 30608294 30728259 30848183 30868153 30638147 30478142
30218138 30138234 30108284 30198299 30408307 30608294
#
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ACUS11 KWNS 251513
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251512
TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-251745-

Mesoscale Discussion 0252
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1012 AM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021

Areas affected...central and northern Mississippi and
Alabama...parts of southern Tennessee

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 251512Z - 251745Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Ongoing storms from Mississippi into Alabama may
consolidate into supercells through midday with developing tornado
threat. A tornado watch is likely by early afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Ongoing activity over eastern MS and into AL has been
elevated for much of the morning, but cells now extend southwest of
the warm front which is situated from from northern MS into central
AL. Radar trends show that cells within these areas have acquired
rotation as they attempt to transition from elevated to surface
based. This may happen over the next couple hours as temperatures
warm into the 70s F with the warm front lifting north, maximizing
effective SRH. Therefore, it is possible that these cells develop a
tornado threat over the next few hours. 0-1 km SRH of 300-400 m2/s2
along the warm front will favor strong tornadoes as the stronger
instability develops into the warm advection zone.

..Jewell/Hart.. 03/25/2021

ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON 34558543 33158671 32708716 32228802 32168845 32328874
32788873 33558850 34138830 34958767 35408680 35488638
35318581 35118545 34828537 34558543

$$
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ACUS11 KWNS 021828
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021828
TXZ000-022030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0837
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0128 PM CDT Wed Jun 02 2021

Areas affected...portions of western into central Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 021828Z - 022030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to
develop over the next couple of hours across western/central Texas.
Hail and strong wind gusts may accompany this activity into the
early evening.

DISCUSSION...An outflow boundary from morning convection extends
from near BPG to SJT to BBD early this afternoon. Strong heating in
the vicinity of the boundary amid upper 50s to low 60s surface
dewpoints is aiding in strong destabilization, with 2000-2500 J/kg
MLCAPE noted in 18z mesoanalysis data. A couple of initial
thunderstorms have developed along/just north of the boundary within
the past hour or two before weakening. Additional, more robust
development, has been noted recently over northern Sterling County
with additional deepening CU noted further northwest to the north of
Midland. While large-scale forcing will remain somewhat modest,
additional diurnal development is expected in the vicinity of the
surface boundary given weak low level convergence and strong
instability. Steep midlevel lapse rates and sufficient shear should
allow for a couple of organized cells capable of hail and strong
gusts. Timing and convective coverage still remains somewhat
uncertain and trends will be monitored for possible watch issuance
over the next few hours.

..Leitman/Hart.. 06/02/2021

ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON 32850192 32000051 31689966 31469927 31179910 30829922
30629954 30490014 30600067 30780116 31500215 31990269
32360289 32760275 32940235 32850192
$$
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ACUS11 KWNS 222042
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222041
IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-222245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1063
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0341 PM CDT Tue Jun 22 2021

Areas affected...Northeast Nebraska and western Iowa

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 222041Z - 222245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A couple of strong to severe storms capable of mainly
large hail and damaging winds possible this evening.

DISCUSSION...Mid-level showers and occasional thunderstorms have
been present across western Iowa for much of the day thus far. This
activity is likely a manifestation of the mid-level moisture and
steep lapse rates in a region of isentropic ascent. Therefore,
if/when the MLCIN can erode across this region, surface based storm
development is anticipated.

A well developed cu field has been advancing eastward across
Nebraska over the last few hours with its eastward extent closely
following the -25 J/kg MLCIN contour from SPC mesoanalysis. Linear extrapolation and forecast MLCIN from the RAP would suggest this cu
field may advance to near the NE/IA border between 21 and 22Z. This
will be the most likely time for surface based storm development as
a minimally capped low-level environment spreads beneath the plume
of better mid-level moisture and isentropic ascent. The window of
opportunity for storm based storm development is narrow, but the
timing appears favorable and the HRRR also supports the idea of
storms developing around 21Z in the region of Sioux City, IA.

Any stronger storms which develop will likely be supercellular in
nature given 50 to 55 kts of effective shear per OAX VWP. These
storms will pose a threat for severe hail and damaging winds. Any
storms which develop are only expected to last a few hours before
boundary layer cooling and subsequent increasing inhibition will
likely bring and end to strong storms. While storm intensity is
expected to be sufficient for a severe thunderstorm watch, storm
coverage and longevity may be too limited.

..Bentley/Hart.. 06/22/2021

ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...

LAT...LON 41229655 41789765 42329784 42789764 43019625 42429347
41619263 41059274 40679348 40639438 40599545 41229655
$$
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ACUS11 KWNS 222138
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222137
NVZ000-IDZ000-ORZ000-222330-

Mesoscale Discussion 1064
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0437 PM CDT Tue Jun 22 2021

Areas affected...Far northwest Nevada into southeast Oregon

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 222137Z - 222330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms may pose a damaging wind and hail
threat late this afternoon and into the evening hours. The threat
will remain isolated enough to preclude the need for a watch.

DISCUSSION...GLM data has shown several scattered lightning strikes
across east/southeast OR over the past hour associated with
weak/transient convection. More recently, a slight uptick in
lightning activity and deeper convective towers within a band of
agitated cumulus located along a trough axis are noted from
northwest NV into far southeast OR. Recent mesoanalysis estimates
show upwards of 1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE over the region as well as
40-50 knots of effective bulk shear. This environment is supportive
of storm organization if a cell can be sustained and gradually
mature. In general, coverage of any strong to severe storms is
expected to be limited given the weak forcing for ascent, and
convection should lose intensity later this evening with the loss of
daytime heating. As such, a watch is not expected.

..Moore/Grams.. 06/22/2021

ATTN...WFO...BOI...LKN...PDT...REV...MFR...

LAT...LON 41351849 41631941 42551993 43541956 44261884 44401820
44461763 44091699 43321679 42431685 41931693 41631724
41351849
$$
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ACUS11 KWNS 241912
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241911
MTZ000-242115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1075
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0211 PM CDT Thu Jun 24 2021

Areas affected...Portions of northwest Montana into west-central
Montana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 241911Z - 242115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A few strong to severe storms possible through the
evening.

DISCUSSION...The boundary layer has destabilized in a region
extending from near Glacier National Park southeastward to near
Great Falls. A few stronger updrafts have started to show more
lightning within the past 30 minutes. Expect storm coverage to
increase as the compact mid-level shortwave trough drops south out
of Canada. In addition, as the boundary layer continues to warm,
expect MLCAPE to increase to around 1000 J/kg. The KTFX VWP shows
around 30 knots of effective shear. This shear combined with the
weak to moderate instability, should be sufficient for organized
updrafts, with some weak supercells possible. Isolated severe hail
and a severe wind gust or two will be possible. Relatively weak
instability, less than 30 knots of flow in the lowest 6km, and
limited coverage of strong to severe storms will likely preclude the
need for a severe thunderstorm watch.

..Bentley/Hart.. 06/24/2021

ATTN...WFO...TFX...MSO...

LAT...LON 49141390 49091470 48161418 46921251 46811194 46771173
47001112 47651099 49051212 49031281 49141390
$$
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