WTXS21 PGTW 302100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.0S 85.8E TO 13.1S 83.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 301800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.0S 85.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.5S 87.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.0S 85.5E, APPROXIMATELY 673
NM WEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 301531Z MHS 89GHZ SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICT A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION DETACHED FROM MAIN AREA OF
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST. A 301532Z ASCAT-B IMAGE SHOWS A WELL
DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 25 KNOT WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.
INVEST 93S IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
WITH POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES OFFSET BY HIGH (>25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 93S WILL TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD WITH STEADY INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
312100Z.//
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WTXS21 PGTW 312100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93S) CANCELLATION//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/302051ZDEC20//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 302100). THE AREA OF
CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.0S 85.5E IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 13.8S 83.7E, APPROXIMATELY 792 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
301308Z SSMIS 91GHZ SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICT A MOSTLY EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION LOCATED EAST FROM MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION. INVEST
93S IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH
WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OFFSET BY HIGH (>25 KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT
INVEST 93S WILL TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD WITH MINIMAL
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND MAY BEGIN TO INTERACT
WITH INVEST 96S, POTENTIALLY ABSORBING INVEST 93S. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO MEDIUM.//
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WTXS21 PGTW 201500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.8S 100.8E TO 13.4S 95.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 201200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.1S 99.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.8S 100.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.1S 99.3E, APPROXIMATELY
153NM ESE OF COCOS ISLANDS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION OVER A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ADDITIONALLY, 201202Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICTS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT CHARACTERIZED BY POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OFFSET BY
MODERATE (15-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 93S WILL TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD AS IT
CONSOLIDATES AND STRENGTHENS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
211500Z.//
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