WTIO30 FMEE 311317 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 3/5/20202021
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5

2.A POSITION 2020/12/31 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.8 S / 83.7 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 111 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 220 NW: 220

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/01 00 UTC: 13.8 S / 82.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 10 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 55

24H: 2021/01/01 12 UTC: 14.0 S / 81.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 45 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 35 SE: 85 SW: 45 NW: 65

36H: 2021/01/02 00 UTC: 14.4 S / 79.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 45 SE: 175 SW: 155 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 85 NW: 65

48H: 2021/01/02 12 UTC: 14.9 S / 78.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 195 SW: 175 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

60H: 2021/01/03 00 UTC: 15.5 S / 77.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 150 SW: 205 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SW: 100 NW: 75

72H: 2021/01/03 12 UTC: 15.1 S / 77.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 45 SW: 100 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 10 SW: 20 NW: 95

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/01/04 12 UTC: 16.9 S / 77.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 45 SE: 175 SW: 175 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 35 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 65

120H: 2021/01/05 12 UTC: 19.6 S / 74.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 45 SE: 165 SW: 205 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 35 SE: 155 SW: 95 NW: 65

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.0

THE SHEAR HAS REMAINED VERY PRESENT IN THE 05 SYSTEM. THUS DURING THE
LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MAINTAINED IN THE WESTERN
PART OF THE SYSTEM, REVEALING THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION RATHER
WIDE BUT LESS ELONGATED. BECAUSE OF THE BEGINNING OF THE
CONSOLIDATION OF THE CIRCULATION, THE SYSTEM CAN BE CLASSIFIED AS A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH HOWEVER A DVORAK ANALYSIS WHICH REMAINS WELL
BELOW THE WIND VALUES OF 30KT MEASURED BY THE ASCENT DATA.

THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS NOW MOVING SLOWLY IN A GENERAL WESTERLY
DIRECTION ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM WILL KEEP THIS WESTERLY TRAJECTORY UNTIL SATURDAY
WITH A TENDENCY TO ACCELERATE. THEREAFTER, THE SYSTEM SHOULD INTERACT
WITH THE SYSTEM 06 FURTHER WEST. IN THESE CONDITIONS, A FUJIWHARA
EFFECT SHOULD OCCUR LEAVING A LARGE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST
OF THE SYSTEM 05 FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A VERY FLUCTUATING TRACK IN
DIRECTION AND SPEED (LOOP OR REVERSAL).

DURING THIS WESTWARD TRACK, THE 05 SYSTEM REMAINS ON THE EDGE OF A
STRONG SHEAR WHICH WILL HOWEVER PROGRESSIVELY WEAKEN. THUS IN TERMS
OF INTENSITY FORECAST, DURING THE 36-42H, THE WIND SHEAR AND THE DRY
AIR INTRUSIONS ASSOCIATED IN THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE SHOULD LIMIT ITS INTENSIFICATION. THEREAFTER, A MORE HUMID ENVIRONMENT ACCOMPANIED BY
AN INCREASE IN SOUTHWARD DIVERGENCE SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN INTENSIFICATION PHASE UP TO THE TROPICAL STORM STAGE, OR EVEN
TEMPORARILY TO THE STAGE OF A STRONG TROPICAL STORM DURING THE
WEEKEND.

THE NEW GUIDELINES SUGGEST THAT SYSTEM 05 WILL EVENTUALLY OVERTAKE
SYSTEM 06. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW THROUGHOUT THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST, AS THE TWO SYSTEMS INTERACT WITH EACH OTHER.
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