WTIO30 FMEE 011301
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/5/20202021
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5

2.A POSITION 2021/01/01 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.4 S / 81.4 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 111 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SW: 155 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/02 00 UTC: 14.9 S / 79.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 270 SW: 260 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 75

24H: 2021/01/02 12 UTC: 15.2 S / 77.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 270 SW: 260 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 75

36H: 2021/01/03 00 UTC: 15.4 S / 75.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 270 SW: 260 NW: 45

48H: 2021/01/03 12 UTC: 14.8 S / 73.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
DISSIPATING
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 270 SW: 260 NW: 45



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5-

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS MIGRATED MAINLY IN
THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE 05 SYSTEM KEEPING A SHEARED
NORTHEASTERLY CONFIGURATION, STILL ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A 20/25KT
SHEAR. IN THE ABSENCE OF NEW DATA, THE 2.5 DVORAK ANALYSIS ALLOWS TO
MAINTAIN A WIND ESTIMATE OF 30KT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5 CONTINUES ITS MORE MARKED WESTERLY MOVEMENT ON
THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM
WILL MAINTAIN THIS WESTERLY TRAJECTORY UNTIL SATURDAY WITH A TENDENCY
TO ACCELERATE. THEREAFTER, THE SYSTEM SHOULD INTERACT WITH THE
MODERATE TROPICAL STORM DANILO PRESENT FURTHER WEST. UNDER THESE
CONDITIONS, A FUJIWHARA EFFECT SHOULD OCCUR LEAVING A LARGE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST OF THE TRAJECTORY OF SYSTEM 05 FOR THE
WEEKEND. FROM THIS DATE, THE SYSTEM RESULTING FROM THIS INTERACTION
BETWEEN SYSTEM 05 AND DANILO SHOULD THEN RESUME A GENERALLY WESTERLY
TRACK ON THE NORTH FACE OF A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.

THE SYSTEM REMAINS AT THE EDGE OF A NORTHEASTERN SHEAR UNTIL TONIGHT,
THEN THE ALTITUDE CONDITIONS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER, THE INTERACTION WITH MODERATE TROPICAL STORM DANILO TO THE
NORTHWEST SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY MODIFY THE LOW-LEVEL CONDITIONS. THE
AVAILABLE MODELS PROPOSE THE DOMINANCE OF DANILO OVER SYSTEM 05, WITH
DANILO CUTTING OFF THE MONSOON SUPPLY TO ITS RIVAL. EARLY NEXT WEEK,
THE SURVIVING SYSTEM SHOULD BENEFIT FROM ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
FAVORING ITS STRENGTHENING EVEN IF DRY MID-TROPOSPHERE AIR TO THE
SOUTH COULD SLOW ITS PACE. DEPENDING ON THE LATITUDE AT WHICH IT
EVOLVES, THE SYSTEM COULD BE GENERATED BY A LACK OF OCEANIC POTENTIAL
SOUTH OF 20S OR A MODERATE NORTHEAST SHEAR AROUND 15S.

AS FOR THE FORECAST OF THE MODERATE TROPICAL STORM DANILO, THE
CONFIDENCE IN TRAJECTORY AND INTENSITY REMAINS LOW, AS THE TWO
SYSTEMS INTERACT WITH EACH OTHER. ONE OF THE TWO SYSTEMS SHOULD TAKE
THE UPPER HAND BUT IT IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE THAT THEY NEUTRALIZE EACH
OTHER. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL BE OF BETTER QUALITY AS SOON AS
THE RESULTING SYSTEM IS BETTER DEFINED. AS FAR AS THE WESTERN TRACK
OF THE SYSTEM IS CONCERNED, IT IS RELATIVELY WELL DEFINED IN THE LONG
TERM.
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