WTIO30 FMEE 021216
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/5/20202021
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5

2.A POSITION 2021/01/02 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.5 S / 77.9 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: UNDETERMINED.

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 240 SW: 205 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/03 00 UTC: 14.4 S / 76.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 240 SW: 280 NW: 0

24H: 2021/01/03 12 UTC: 14.7 S / 75.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
DISSIPATING

36H: 2021/01/04 00 UTC: 13.7 S / 75.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
DISSIPATING




2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5

THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS DETERIORATED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS, WITH
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION HEATING, THIS MORNING'S ASCAT-B DATA SHOWS
THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS ELONGATED AND THAT THE
STRONGEST WINDS DO NOT SEEM TO EXCEED 30 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
THEREFORE HELD AT 30 KT.

WHILE THE SYSTEM BENEFICE ALWAYS OF A GOOD UPPER LEVELS DIVERGENCE,
MAINLY POLARWARDS, POTENTIAL OF INTENSIFICATION SEEMS LIMITATED BY
DRY AIR LOCATED SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. MOREOVER, STARTING TOMORROW, THE INTERACTION WITH THE DANILO STORM SHOULD DEFINITIVELY ANNIHILATE THE
CHANCES OF INTENSIFICATION.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5 CONTINUES ITS MARKED WESTWARD SHIFT ON THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM
WILL MAINTAIN THIS WESTWARD TRAJECTORY NEXT NIGHT. THEREAFTER, THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH THE DANILO IN THE NORTHWEST, IN
THE FORM OF A FUJIWHARA EFFECT. IN THIS CONTEXT THE PREDICTION OF
TRACK AND INTENSITY IS PARTICULARLY UNCERTAIN.

IN VIEW OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE, IT STILL SEEMS LIKELY THAT STORM
DANILO WILL TAKE OVER AND THE 05 SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY DISAPPEAR IN
ITS CIRCULATION.
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