WTIO30 FMEE 071831
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 31/6/20202021
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 6 (DANILO)

2.A POSITION 2021/01/07 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.7 S / 69.0 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY NINE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 12 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 74 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 445 SW: 370 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/08 06 UTC: 17.1 S / 66.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 10 SE: 230 SW: 220 NW: 55

24H: 2021/01/08 18 UTC: 17.4 S / 64.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 10 SE: 140 SW: 120 NW: 55

36H: 2021/01/09 06 UTC: 18.0 S / 62.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 45 SE: 155 SW: 130 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 35 SE: 75 SW: 35 NW: 65

48H: 2021/01/09 18 UTC: 18.9 S / 60.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 205 SW: 165 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 75 NW: 65

60H: 2021/01/10 06 UTC: 19.9 S / 59.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 230 SW: 155 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 65

72H: 2021/01/10 18 UTC: 21.1 S / 58.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 295 SW: 205 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/01/11 18 UTC: 23.2 S / 54.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 500 SW: 390 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 295 SW: 175 NW: 85

120H: 2021/01/12 18 UTC: 24.8 S / 50.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 500 SW: 390 NW: 175

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUED TO SHOW A CURVED
BAND PATTERN THAT BARELY REACHED HALF OF THE SPIRAL. CONVECTIVE BURST
IS NOTICEABLE TO THE WEST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER DURING THE LAST
FEW HOURS. THIS PATTERN LEAVES A VALUE OF 2.5 IN THE DVORAK ANALYSIS
AT THE UPPER THRESHOLD OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION, ALLOWING AN
ESTIMATE OF WINDS OF THE ORDER OF 30KT.

IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECAST, DANILO IS MOVING WESTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OF LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERE. THIS
SHIFT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS. FROM THE
WEEKEND ONWARDS, DANILO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST
WITH THE SHIFT OF THE HIGH GEOPOTENTIALS TO THE EAST. THIS INFLECTION
OF THE TRACK SHOULD LEAD DANILO TO PASS TO THE SOUTH OF REUNION
ISLAND AND MAURITIUS. THIS FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS OF THE DIFFERENT
GUIDANCES, EXCLUDING THOSE WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHERLY TRACK.
INDEED, THE ENSEMBLE FORECASTS CONTINUE TO PRESENT A CERTAIN NUMBER
OF MEMBERS PASSING AT THE NORTHERN LIMIT OF THE MASCARENE ISLANDS, A
SCENARIO THAT WOULD LEAD TO WORSE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR REUNION
ISLAND AND MAURITIUS.

CIMSS ANALYSES SHOW THAT THE WIND SHEAR IS DECREASING. HOWEVER, THIS IMPROVEMENT IN ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AT ALTITUDE WILL ONLY BE
CONDUCIVE TO THE REINTENSIFICATION OF DANILO WITH A DELAY OF 30 TO 36
HOURS, WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL FEEDING RECOVERS. IT IS NOT UNTIL THIS
WEEKEND AND THE ESTABLISHMENT OF A GOOD POLAR DIVERGENCE AT THE FRONT
OF A HIGH ALTITUDE TROUGH THAT SOME EPS MEMBERS AND DETERMINISTIC
MODELS SUGGEST A SLIGHT REINTENSIFICATION, A SCENARIO THAT THE RSMC
IS FOLLOWING. AT THESE DATES (CLOSE TO 60 HOURS), THE UNCERTAINTY ON
INTENSITY FORECASTS REMAINS SIGNIFICANT, A FACT THAT IS ALL THE MORE
REMARKABLE SINCE THE METEOR TRANSITS CLOSE TO INHABITED LANDS. FROM
MONDAY, THE DEGRADATION OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (DRY AIR,
ALTITUDE SHEAR AND LACK OF OCEANIC POTENTIAL) SHOULD LEAD TO THE
START OF THE FINAL FILLING OF DANILO.

THIS WEEKEND, DANILO WILL THEREFORE PASS CLOSE TO THE MASCARENES. A
PROBABLE DEGRADATION OF THE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED FROM EAST
TO WEST, ESPECIALLY IN TERMS OF RAINFALL.FOR THE ISLAND RODRIGUES,
THE DEGRADATION SHOULD ARRIVE FRIDAY / SATURDAY, BUT THE DISTANCE OF
DANILO SHOULD LEAVE THE HEAVIEST RAINS FAR TO THE NORTH. REGARDING
THE MAURITIUS - RA UNION SECTOR, THE TIMING SHOULD BE FOR SUNDAY /
MONDAY. WE INVITE THE POPULATIONS OF THESE ISLANDS TO KEEP UP TO
DATE WITH THE WEATHER FORECAST THROUGH THEIR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL
SERVICE.
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