WTIO30 FMEE 081841
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 35/6/20202021
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 6 (DANILO)

2.A POSITION 2021/01/08 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.2 S / 64.9 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.0/2.0/W 1.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/09 06 UTC: 17.9 S / 63.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, ZONE OF
DISTURBED WEATHER

24H: 2021/01/09 18 UTC: 18.7 S / 61.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 150 SW: 165 NW: 55

36H: 2021/01/10 06 UTC: 19.3 S / 59.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SW: 165 NW: 55

48H: 2021/01/10 18 UTC: 19.9 S / 58.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 165 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 35 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 35

60H: 2021/01/11 06 UTC: 20.6 S / 56.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SW: 165 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 35 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 35

72H: 2021/01/11 18 UTC: 21.3 S / 54.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 150 SW: 165 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/01/12 18 UTC: 22.5 S / 50.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

120H: 2021/01/13 18 UTC: 24.3 S / 48.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING
UP

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=1.0 CI=2.0

THE STRUCTURE OF DANILO REMAINS VERY POORLY DEFINED WITH AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION STILL SHOWING DEEP CONVECTION POLES AT ITS NORTH-WEST AND SOUTH-EAST EXTREMITIES. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY REMAINS STRONGER AND
PERSISTENT IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN PART ... WHICH MAY SUGGEST A
REFORMATION OF THE CENTRE FURTHER SOUTH, BUT NEITHER LATEST MICROWAVE
IMAGES NOR RECENT (ALTHOUGH PARTIAL) ASCAT SWATHS SUGGEST THAT THIS
IS THE CASE. THE CENTRE REMAINS NEAR THE BARYCENTRE OF THE SYSTEM'S
WIDE CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION. THE MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE BEEN LOWERED TO 25
KT ON THE BASIS OF THE PARTIAL ASCAT WHICH SUGGEST THAT 30 KT WINDS
ARE ONLY PRESENT LOCALLY AND FAR FROM THE CENTRE.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST RESONNING: DANILO IS TRACKING SOUTHWEST
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FROM LOW TO MIDDLE
TROPOSPHERE TOWARDS THE MASCARENE ARCHIPELAGO. THIS TRACK SHOULD LEAD
DANILO TO COME VERY CLOSE TO, OR EVEN OVER THE ISLANDS OF LA REUNION
AND MAURITIUS. THIS FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS OF THE DIFFERENT
GUIDANCES, WHOSE MEMBERS TRACKING SOUTH TOGETHER ARE LESS AND LESS
NUMEROUS.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY FORECAST: IN THE SHORT TERM, DANILO IS NOT
EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS CONDUCIVE TO ITS INTENSIFICATION. INDEED, UNTIL THE END OF THIS WEEKEND, DANILO WILL
ENCOUNTER A SLIGHT CONSTRAINT ALOFT, ESPECIALLY COUPLED WITH AN
INTRUSION OF DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE. HOWEVER, FROM SUNDAY,
DANILO WILL BE ABLE TO BENEFIT FROM A GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ON
THE POLAR COAST, IN FRONT OF A HIGH ALTITUDE TROUGH, AND A BETTER
MOIST FEED IN THE LOW LAYER. THIS SCENARIO, WHICH LEADS TO SOME
MODEST INTENSIFICATION, IS SUGGESTED BY SOME EPS MEMBERS AND SOME
DETERMINISTS MODELS (AROME). FROM WEDNESDAY, DANILO SHOULD ALSO
ENCOUNTER A LOWER OCEAN POTENTIAL WITH LESS WARM WATER, WHICH WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO ITS WEAKENING AND THUS LEAD TO THE BEGINNING OF THE
DEFINITIVE FILLING OF THE METEOR.

IN TERMS OF IMPACTS, THIS WEEKEND, DANILO WILL TRACK CLOSE TO THE
MASCARENES ARCHIPELAGO. A POSSIBLE DETERIORATION OF THE
METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED FROM EAST TO WEST, ESPECIALLY
IN TERMS OF RAIN.

- FOR THE ISLAND OF RODRIGUES, THE DETERIORATION SHOULD ARRIVE NEXT
NIGHT AND CONTINUE ON SATURDAY, WITH SOME WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS THAT CAN EXCEED 50 MM OVER 24 HOURS.

- AS FOR THE SECTOR MAURITIUS-LA REUNION, THE TIMING OF PASSAGE NEAR,
OR OVER THESE ISLANDS, WITH SIGNIFICANT DEGRADATION OF THE WEATHER
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DONE FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY. WE INVITE THE
POPULATIONS OF THESE ISLANDS TO KEEP UP TO DATE WITH THE
METEOROLOGICAL FORECASTS THROUGH THEIR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL
SERVICE.
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