ACUS11 KWNS 192200
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192200
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-192330-

Mesoscale Discussion 1018
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0500 PM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021

Areas affected...Northeastern Colorado...Southwestern Nebraska...and Northwestern Kansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 286...

Valid 192200Z - 192330Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 286
continues.

SUMMARY...An organized wind threat is developing this
afternoon/evening across northeastern Colorado, southwestern
Nebraska, and northwestern Kansas. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will
be needed downstream of WW286.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms across the eastern Nebraska Panhandle and northeastern Colorado are rapidly growing upscale and surging east-southeastward/eastward. Given the favorable environment
downstream, characterized by steep lapse rates, over 2000 J/kg of
MUCAPE, and 30-40 knots of effective bulk shear, continued upscale
growth and organization is expected. In addition, the southerly
low-level jet is expected to increase this evening across central
Kansas, providing additional support for convective maintenance and organization. All factors are supportive of the development of a severe-wind-producing MCS, including potential for significant
severe winds, over the next several hours.

..Jirak/Guyer.. 06/19/2021

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON 39910363 40420368 40820348 41340294 41680270 41440154
41100057 40969964 40529908 39839885 39389923 38999999
38850164 38900310 39120374 39910363
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ACUS11 KWNS 202223
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202222
WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-210015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1037
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0522 PM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021

Areas affected...Far southeast Minnesota...northeast Iowa...and far
western Wisconsin

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 293...

Valid 202222Z - 210015Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 293
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for damaging winds and severe hail will
continue for the next 1-2 hours for WW 293. The greatest near-term
risk will likely reside across northeast Iowa.

DISCUSSION...A convective line continues to push eastward across
southeast MN and northern/northeast IA. So far, wind reports have
generally been sub-severe, but radar imagery from KMPX and KARX
suggest pockets of damaging wind remain possible as cold pool
organization continues. 0-3 km bulk shear in this region remains
nearly orthogonal to the line with magnitudes between 20-30 knots,
further supporting the idea of at least an isolated damaging wind
threat.

Although the line's eastward motion has phased well with the
eastward progression of the surface low and viable warm sector,
remnant stable outflow to the east across southern WI/northern IL
may hinder storm intensity to some degree - especially north of an
effective warm frontal boundary noted in recent surface obs. South
of this boundary, the higher theta-e air mass should provide enough
better instability to maintain storm intensity and the wind/hail
threat into the evening hours.

..Moore.. 06/20/2021

ATTN...WFO...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...

LAT...LON 43499249 44089199 43969092 43539028 42689033 42219062
42139105 42199173 42289223 42409303 42549345 42829337
43499249
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