WTPN22 PGTW 300100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 19.7N 139.6E TO 22.0N 134.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 061800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 19.6N 139.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 19.8N 140.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 139.3E, APPROXIMATELY
752NM SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 291919Z SSMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION
SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST. FURTHERMORE, A TIMELY 292247Z ASCAT-A
IMAGE SHOWS A COMPACT AREA OF 20KT WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN SEMI-
CIRCLE OF THE LLC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 95W IS IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE WIND
SHEAR (15-20KTS), GOOD EQUATORIAL OUTFLOW, AND WARM (30-31C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
95W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE EAST AS IT STEADILY INTENSIFIES BEFORE TURNING TO A
MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
010100Z.//
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