XPost: alt.ufo.reports

WARNING: Numbers ahead. Turn back now ifn yor squeemish.

The subject line is a more or less quote from a recent newspaper
article. I didn't read past the headline because it kinda sounds like
someone hasn't even looked at the evidence from close up.

In my present incarnation I'm a data scientist.
<kaggle.com/kymhorsell1>.
Looking at data is my bread and butter.
For the past couple months I've been looking at UFO numbers. In depth.

While I'm prepared to relate the details of some of the more complex
procedures I've tortured the numbers with (and I'm setting up a web
page to show some tables and graphs) let's do something real simple here.

OK. UFO's are mostly mistakes. Swamp gas, car backfires, fireworks,
the planet Venus, kids toys, or signs someone is on serious drugs.
But suppose some tiny fraction of them might be something else.
From my vantage point of 3-4 months into the data it's hard to say whether
this more interesting part is related to some part of the Earth's population that is hitherto "unknown to science" and been hiding under the ice for
10,000 years, is some foreign power playing with advanced tech, is
something interplanetary, is based for nearby deeper space (e.g. the Oort -- some lag times in the data suggest if lightspeed is a consideration
then a point 100,000 AU out), or is from further afield, or whether it's
purely tech or has neat biological aspects.

But given that there might be part of UFO sightings that relate
to something under more or less smart control what might we
expect the pattern of observations to show?

In the US e.g. would UFO sightings cluster around air bases or other
military bases? Or would they be "repelled" by military bases? And
if so, which would they be repelled by more -- air bases or army posts?

You can guess where I'm headed here. But I insist on going there anyway.

From the NUFORC which provides all its sightings data from 200 AD to the present online and for free we can break down the sightings by
state/prov where observed (about 1500 sightings are outside N Am):

State/Prov Number since 1900
AB 423
AK 425
AL 911
AR 689
AZ 2963
BC 506
CA 9817
CO 1988
CT 1326
DC 80
DE 278
FL 5411
GA 1812
HI 463
IA 784
ID 880
IL 2588
IN 1525
KS 736
KY 1097
LA 728
MA 1755
MB 150
MD 1233
ME 778
MI 2330
MN 1396
MO 1745
MS 502
MT 657
NB 154
NC 2502
ND 167
NE 440
NF 27
NH 756
NJ 1824
NM 1068
NS 137
NT 10
NV 1030
NY 3552
OH 2790
OK 931
ON 1478
OR 2157
PA 3251
PE 14
PR 2
QB 1
QC 202
RI 426
SA 5
SC 1662
SD 259
SK 132
TN 1463
TX 3618
UT 994
VA 1762
VT 430
WA 3991
WI 1598
WV 579
WY 247
YT 18

Natch some of these are bigger states. So adjust per mn capita.

(Another neat tweak I found was more sightings happen on Sat,
in fact increase from Mon thru Sat. Which suggests maybe sightings
where day-of-week is known need to be multiplied by a factor to
flatten that out if we suspect UFO's dont have a 7-day work-week).

Looking up Wiki to find how many air bases and army bases are
in each state we can then make a simple stats model based on the table:

state #airbases #armybases #ufo.sightings.per.mn.capita

and see whether UFO's tend to appear more often (per capita) in states
that don't have lots of military bases and, if so, also which of air base or military base is the better repellent.

We might expect something flying around the sky just MIGHT prefer not
to hover over an air base if it had a choice of the 2.

But let's see what the stats s/w finds.

REWEIGHTED LEAST SQUARES BASED ON THE LMS
*****************************************
VARIABLE COEFFICIENT STAND. ERROR T - VALUE P - VALUE
----------------------------------------------------------------------
airbase -19.79271 8.45218 -2.34173 0.02682
armybase -2.54957 2.95119 -0.86391 0.39525
CONSTANT 305.88037 22.20798 13.77344 0.00000

WEIGHTED SUM OF SQUARES = 107802.89062
DEGREES OF FREEDOM = 27
SCALE ESTIMATE = 63.18781
COEFFICIENT OF DETERMINATION (R SQUARED) = 0.20810
THE F-VALUE = 3.548 (WITH 2 AND 27 DF) P - VALUE = 0.04286


The program finds for each air base in a state there are almost 20 per
mn capita LESS ufosightings. The probability of a causal connection
rather than chance is around 99% (1-the pval). For each Army base in a
state there are about 3 less ufo sightings per mn capita. Prob of a
connection is ~60% (i.e. maybe there is no effect on ufo sightings and our
data just happened to show something by chance alone).

Overall, the model is 99% sure (1-pval of the F at bottom) there is
some connection between bases and ufo sightings.

It turns out not to be true -- like I've also see on some "data
science" sites that look at UFO data -- that UFO's hang around
military bases and are (therefore) possibly some kind of experimental
aircraft. They MAY appear around military bases but generally seem to
shun going near them and, in particular, don't like to appear in states
that have a large number of *air* bases. Hence the "F" in the acronym.

You gotta suspect they are under some kind of direction to be able read
Wiki well enough to figure that out.

--
Pioneering country singer Charley Pride dies from coronavirus
ABC News, 13 Dec 2020 0:35Z
The baseballer-turned singer is remembered as a "country music pioneer"
after selling more than 25 mn records with hits such as Kiss an Angel
Good Morning, and being the first black inductee to the Country Music Hall
of Fame.

The Debrief @Debriefmedia 11 Dec 2020 21:12Z
A breakthrough discovery of cosmic "Superhighways" could permit rapid
travel of objects through space and have a huge impact in our own
exploration of the cosmos. #space #SpaceX #SpaceXStarship <https://t.co/xXPaHcfclH>buff.ly/37QD13o

Flamethrower drone used to incinerate wasp nests
ABC News, 13 Dec 2020 02:34Z
The six-armed drone is equipped with a petrol tank and a nozzle which spits bursts of fire onto hives, protecting villagers in the central Chinese
region from being stung.

Moon Colony Planned to Provide Home for Astronauts
TMZ, 12 Dec 2020 16:48Z
It sounds crazy and undoable, but there are plans to colonize the Moon, and frankly, it looks kinda awesome. Here's the thing. NASA is promising 2 astronauts ...

When planes return to the skies, some aviation experts fear a spate of incidents
ABC News, 12 Dec 2020 19:41Z
The pandemic saw air travel grind to a halt, but when we return to the skies, aviation experts fear some pilots will be getting back into the cockpit with
no recent experience landing a passenger plane.

Leaked Reports From Pentagon UFO Task Force Discuss 'Non-Human Technology,' Mysterious Objects
gvwire.com, 07 Dec 2020
"Recommend you take the brief I just received from our Director of Naval Intelligence VADM Matt Kohler, on Unidentified Aerial Phenomena (UAP),"
Burke told ...

Video Shows Navy Pilots' Encounter With Possible UFO
The Daily Beast, 07 Dec 2020 13:24Z

Bloomberg Green @climate 12 Dec 2020 09:58Z
The small English town of Boston will soon become Europe's fake-meat
capital with the opening of a giant factory making plant-based burgers
and sausages <https://t.co/OJIVBegm3Y>trib.al/z2n4WY0

Details of leaked Pentagon reports mention 'unidentified' UFOs
New York Post, 04 Dec 2020
Details from 2 allegedly classified intelligence reports from the Pentagon
on apparent UFOs have been leaked, including photos of purported
"unidentified ...
[Atlantis is alive and well].

Post Disclosure World @PostDisclosure 06 Dec 2020 04:20Z
Hal Puthoff was part of AATIP. So he's seen a lot of classified
information relating to UAP. His favorite hypothesis is also that these
UFOs are originating from ultraterrestrials. And UAP Task Force gives
credence to the potential UAP originate from the oceans...
[UFO sightings, while 90% junk like dozens of report of people Musk's
sat trains, are highly correlated with the coming and going of polar phytoplankton. Maybe "just a coincidence" but also supporting the shock
idea there is an undiscovered tech society on Earth living and farming
the oceans].

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: www.darkrealms.ca (1:229/2)